This story is excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.
The World Series starts tonight and I don’t know about you, but I’m really looking forward to this matchup. Lots of entertaining Diamondbacks-Rangers storylines. But most of all I just enjoyed watching these two teams play. It’s hard not to appreciate the determination of some teams that took on hostile street environments in Games 6 and 7 of an LCS – and won both games.
Anyway, back to the matter at hand. The Padres had once hoped to play well into October. Instead, they will have to look for a manager ahead of what is expected to be a busy offseason.
Let’s get straight to the point. If the Padres hope to realize their World Series aspirations next fall, here are five critical questions that need to be answered.
It won’t be Bob Melvin, who officially took the Giants job on Wednesday. This move represents something of a pivot, considering general manager AJ Preller referred to Melvin as “our manager” in his season-ending press release. But it’s obviously not entirely unwelcome for the Padres, otherwise they wouldn’t have approached Melvin with the Giants’ interview request.
In any case, the Padres now need to find a replacement for Melvin, and two internal candidates have already come to the forefront: senior advisor Mike Shildt and backup coach/offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty. Most speculation is that one of the two will get the job. But what Preller said yesterday gave me pause:
“I noticed in the first 24 hours that there was a lot of interest in this job. We had some very interesting names and some very competent people expressing interest in the job. It’s really a testament to our team, our roster and the talent that’s here.”
2. What’s next for Juan Soto?
There are three possible paths for the Padres and Soto, who is due a $23 million raise in his final year of arbitration.
The Padres need to explore the first option before exploring the other two: a long-term extension. Soto is one of the best hitters in the game. He turned 25 on Wednesday. In other words, he is the type of player to build around.
On the other hand, Soto has already rejected long-term overtures in Washington. Now that he’s a year away from free agency, it’s more likely than ever that he’ll hit the open market. That leaves the Padres with their other two options.
They could enter 2024 with Soto in a contract year. They figure they can compete, and putting a potential future Hall of Famer in the middle of the lineup is never a bad thing.
On the other hand, the Padres passed up a massive effort to acquire Soto. If they wanted to recover some value, they could try trading him. Reports have already surfaced that the Yankees have checked out Soto, although sources have indicated those conversations haven’t actually occurred between GMs.
Still, there will clearly be interest. Preller did not completely rule out this possibility earlier this month.
“We’ve never been a group that says no to anything,” Preller said. “I wouldn’t read that into it. That’s just how we work. But again, I think the first path will be to have a conversation with Juan and.” [agent] Scott Boras and I are looking at where that is.
3. How do you replace Snell and/or Hader?
The Padres’ core remains mostly intact, especially on the offensive side. But it can’t be overstated what they would lose if Blake Snell and Josh Hader left as free agents.
Both are expected to receive qualified offers. Both will almost certainly decline those offers, leaving the Padres competing against 29 other teams for their services.
Snell and Hader have expressed their love for pitching before in San Diego. That doesn’t mean either would take a discount and the market should be robust for both numbers. Snell is coming off a likely NL Cy Young season in which he led the majors with a 2.25 ERA. Hader is one of the best closers in the sport, posting a 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.
“You need guys like that at the end of your bullpen,” Preller said of Hader.
Of Snell, he added: “The organization is very interested in having a pitcher like Blake in our rotation.”
Neither will be cheap. But if they were to leave, the Padres would have holes to fill.
4. Where is the pitching?
Snell and Hader aren’t the only impending departures from this staff. Seth Lugo has one player option that he will almost certainly decline. Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez now have contracts with both team and player options, and their status for 2024 is uncertain.
As of right now, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only proven starting pitcher options set to return – both had their 2023 seasons cut short due to injury. That’s a lot of question marks.
Which perhaps increases the likelihood that the Padres bring back Wacha and Martinez. But they would still be thin in the back of their rotation and the back of their bullpen.
Here’s a question worth pondering as the Padres try to fill those gaps with a suddenly revamped farm: Would they abandon their resurgent farm system again to find pitches? Or would they be hesitant to do so after similar deals left them without depth in 2023?
When Xander Bogaerts signed last offseason, the Padres insisted he would be their shortstop in 2023. In particular, they never addressed anything beyond that.
Bogaerts was solid defensively in his debut season. But Ha-Seong Kim remains one of the best defensive shortstops in the sport. Additionally, the condition of Manny Machado’s surgically repaired elbow could play a role. If Machado begins the year on the IL or as a full-time DH, the Padres may need Kim at third rather than second or second. Meanwhile, Jake Cronenworth is far more valuable in second place than in first.
In the outfield, Trent Grisham is one of the best defenders in the game. But he has struggled offensively and appears to be a trade-or-non-tender candidate. Could this mean Fernando Tatis Jr. moves to center field?
Whatever decisions the Padres make regarding their defensive alignment, they should make them soon. It will undoubtedly impact their strategy in free agency.