The San Diego Padres have reached an agreement with shortstop Xander Bogaerts. according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Bogaerts, who has retired from the last three years and has $60 million left on his Red Sox contract after the season, will sign an 11-year deal worth $280 million. The exact structure of the deal is not yet known, but MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the deal does not include opt-outs. Regardless, it offers no-trade protection.
Bogaerts turned 30 in October and was the oldest of this offseason’s notable free-agent shortstops (also Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner, who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week). He slashed .307/.377/.456 in 2022, though he slipped to 15 homers after averaging 29.7 homers per 162 games from 2018-2021. The performance drop has been mitigated with improved defense. Bogaerts was rated very well in this area in 2022.
Our RJ Anderson ranked Bogaerts as the fifth best available free agent this offseason and the third best available shortstop behind Correa and Turner. Here is his cover letter:
Bogaerts is the Max Martin of the shortstops, a consistent hitmaker with a sparkling trophy case. In each of the last five seasons, he has appeared in at least 84 percent of his team’s games and has an OPS+ rating of 125+. He’s an average batter, he can run and he mostly bats with power. This season proved exceptional on that last note, although a collision with Alex Verdugo at the end of May that resulted in wrist and shoulder discomfort could be to blame. Defensively, Bogaerts has been a few years away from leaving shortstop for, oh, a decade. Statcast data confirms he still doesn’t have top speed or arm strength compared to his peers. It’s not easy to convince a major league team that you can play on the six for that long unless you do something right. Even if Bogaerts is asked to go elsewhere by his next employer, credit has to be given for the hard work he has put into improving his defence. Note that Bogaerts walked out on his contract with three years and $60 million remaining, suggesting he’s looking to improve on a $20 million AAV. He should be fine.
Bogaerts has capitalized on the nooks and crannies of Fenway Park over the years, hitting .312/.375/.497 at home and .271/.338/.420 on the street during his career. He also had a .424 batting average with balls in play on the ground in 2022, well above his career average (.333) and league average (.302). Some regression is likely, making it important for Bogaerts to rediscover his power.
Bogaerts is expected to play an infield position for the Padres, with the exact position yet to be determined. San Diego already has a number of talented infielders, including Fernando Tatis Jr. (who is likely to move to the outfield after missing the entire 2022 season due to a combination of injury and suspension), Manny Machado (third-place), Ha-Seong Kim (a good shortstop) and Jake Cronenworth (previously cemented at second base). In theory, the addition of Bogaerts could allow the Padres to trade one of those players for rotational help or move one to first base (Wil Myers, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury are all either free agents or already signed to another team). Still, things are likely to remain in flux for the Padres until spring training begins. At least they have options.
The Padres had previously made runs at Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, both missing. However, general manager AJ Preller is never one to fear making a splash. Bogaerts becomes the latest in his roster of star additions, joining Machado, Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Yu Darvish and more. Our own Matt Snyder recently detailed how the Padres were able to make such overblown offers to the top free agents, writing the following:
The Padres currently appear to have $184.2 million on the books for 2023 after counting in arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries, baseball-reference.com estimates. It seems like depth of rotation is more important than adding another superstar, but it’s possible they could get along with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Adrian Morejon, Julio Tehran and others (Ryan Weathers recovering?) .
It should be noted that the Padres’ signing of Bogaerts means the Boston Red Sox, his former team, are now certainly in the hunt for a new shortstop of their own. That could make the Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson sweepstakes all the more interesting.