8:50 am: A possible deal between the two sides would be a bit more complex than initially assumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly have to eat up a significant portion of the money owed to Hosmer for this deal to work. Specifically, the Padres would cover approximately $30 million or more of Hosmer’s deal, which would bring Hosmers down to $6 to $7 million a year. per Sherman.
The Mets would also get relief Emilio Heide in business. Pagan has looked like prime bullpen arm at times during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to finish games if he stays in San Diego, while in New York he would step into a fairly large collection of right-handed setup guns, including Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor Mayand Set Lugo.
7:55 am: The Mets have spent the offseason working flat out to create a competitive roster, but the fragility of an offseason win was highlighted yesterday with the news of Ass Jacob de Grom closed for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.
In fact, they’ve been chatting up randomly with the Padres for the past few weeks about various trading scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to plug the leak. According to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal and others, a potential deal could turn Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddock Heading to the Mets while Dominik Schmidt would go to San Diego.
The Padres have been trying to get off Hosmer’s money for quite some time, and the free-running Mets could now have a rotation need big enough to consider taking it back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, with Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause being converted to full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he’s traded, Hosmer’s contract includes a clause that says he can’t be traded twice without his consent, so he essentially gets his no-trade clause until the end of the 2022 campaign, regardless of who he’s for plays.
With $59 million over four years remaining on his deal, Hosmer has no positive trade value – not after fWAR aggregates of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3 and -0.1 over the past four seasons. At the start of his season at the age of 32, Hosmer is not expected to blossom overnight. Besides, the Mets absolutely don’t need him, not with Peter Alonso on the list.
Acquiring Hosmer would push the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with nearly $300 million in payroll. notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, the Mets might be willing to take him on if they can simultaneously beef up their rotation.
enter paddock. The 26-year-old has three years of team control left and significant advantages. However, he is far from safe. His numbers fell for the third straight year last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA over 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL could be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has completely resolved itself. Paddack would therefore be an option to slip into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.
In the short term, he may not be able to get over an upgrade at all Tylor Megil, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts with 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly start the season with Megill on the rotation and see how things progress from there.
For the Padres part, their motivation would be primarily to terminate Hosmer’s contract. They theoretically have enough depth of rotation to survive the loss of Paddack and in Smith they would get back a comparable racquet that is cheaper, more versatile and with more theoretical advantages than Hosmer. He is also under team control for two more seasons after 2022, although those seasons are not guaranteed should he continue to have problems with the court.
For the early part of his career, Smith’s story was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position as first baseman was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a small player. Then hitter-designated came to the NL in 2020, Smith began taking flyballs in left field and the offensive promise was realized with a .316/.377/.616 line across 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.
In 2021, he saw fairly steady season again, but the numbers cratered to 86 wRC+ through a line of .244/.304/.363 across 494 plate appearances, more than doubling his previous career high in that regard. The Padres need a left fielder and Smith could get in right at first base if that deal goes through. For San Diego, however, this deal is mostly about moving away from Hosmer. There are left field options – including former Met Michael Conforto — but Smith would certainly be worth a roster if his takeover meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.