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Image source: Siranush Sargsyan
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This mother and daughter are among thousands of ethnic Armenians implicated in the surrender of Karabakh forces to Azerbaijan
It took the Azerbaijani military just 24 hours to force the surrender of an enclave home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians.
What is happening to the men, women and children in this corner of the South Caucasus is causing increasing fear.
Despite Azerbaijan’s promises, Armenians there fear for their future and whether they will be forced to leave the country – or worse.
Siranush Sargsyan had just visited several shelters in the regional capital when she fired off a series of voice messages, explaining that there was “literally nothing to eat.”
“I don’t know anyone who wants to stay here. I have very close elderly relatives who lost their sons in previous wars and who prefer to die here,” she said.
“But for most people, for my generation, it is already the fourth war.”
Oil-rich Azerbaijan is doing its best to reassure civilians by promising food, fuel and “reintegration.”
You may not be forced to leave, but there is little desire to stay.
Image source: Siranush Sargsyan
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Civilians wait uncertainly for Azerbaijan to take over the capital Karabakh
Many civilians fled remote villages this week as the Azerbaijani army advanced on their town, called Stepanakert by ethnic Armenians but known to Azerbaijan as Khankendi. “They don’t know anything about their relatives. This is a real horror,” she said.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union – the first in 1992-94, when Armenia occupied the region – tens of thousands of people have lost their lives in wars here.
At least 200 more died this week as the military pushed further into an enclave internationally considered part of Azerbaijan.
Its President Ilham Aliyev said that the Karabakh Armenians could now “finally breathe a sigh of relief.” But that still seems a long way off for now.
In Karabakh, there is very little trust in the government in Baku, which has been run by a single family for 30 years, and when the president describes the region’s leaders as “blood-sucking leeches.”
The images currently show ethnic Armenians searching for relatives, seeking shelter and using makeshift ovens to cook what little food they can find.
Late last year, Azerbaijan imposed an effective blockade of the only route to Armenia.
Until this week’s offensive, journalist Sargsyan devoted her time to documenting months-long shortages of food, medicine and toiletries.
This exit route, known as the Lachin Corridor, will be crucial in the coming days or weeks if Karabakh’s ethnic Armenians decide to leave the country in large numbers.
What was for decades a separatist enclave with its own television stations, universities and languages is now being incorporated into the surrounding state.
Azerbaijan argues that only 50,000 people have been affected, but Ms Sargsyan estimates the actual number is currently 110,000.
About 5,000 people have sought refuge in a Russian peacekeeping base at the local airport.
Caucasus expert Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe is increasingly concerned about their fate and believes there is a real and credible threat of ethnic cleansing, whether more or less peaceful or involving bloodshed.
“There will be no problems for women and children,” he said. “But the big question is about men who are under arms or who fought against Azerbaijan – which is probably the majority of the Karabakh population.”
Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense
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Several thousand refugees have sought protection from Russian peacekeepers
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already made plans to accommodate 40,000 families. He accuses his neighbor of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, although he currently assumes that the civilian population is not in “direct danger.”
Azerbaijani officials are considering a form of amnesty with a promise not to prosecute fighters who lay down their arms.
But presidential adviser Hikmet Hajiyev told the BBC’s Azerbaijan service: “This does not apply to those who committed crimes in the First Karabakh War.”
Azerbaijan is believed to have lists of men it believes are responsible for war crimes in 2020 and earlier.
A 68-year-old man en route to an operation in Armenia was arrested in July during a Red Cross evacuation on suspicion of war crimes in 1992. His family claims this is untrue.
Images shared on social media on Friday showed Karabakhis removing portraits from an outdoor exhibition of those killed in the 2020 war.
Mr de Waal believes two key deterrents can prevent an exodus of ethnic Armenians from turning deadly.
One of them is the possible involvement of two international groups – the Red Cross and the contingent of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh after the 2002 war.
Siranush Sargsyan has little trust in the peacekeepers: “I know that the Russians will do nothing. They will act like they are saving children’s lives, but they will do nothing to protect us.”
In addition, Azerbaijan is very concerned about its image in the West.
Image source: AZERBAIJAN GOVERNMENT
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Azerbaijan said a convoy carrying food and hygiene products was sent to Nagorno-Karabakh on Friday
Azerbaijan insists there are no such plans to force the local population to leave the country, underlining the focus the country placed on “reintegrating” ethnic Armenians into society in initial talks with local leaders on Thursday .
“We never wanted ethnic cleansing,” says Zaur Ahmadov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Sweden, who remembers the expulsion of his compatriots in the early 1990s.
Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azerbaijanis were forced out of Armenia as the Soviet Union collapsed and massacres broke out on both sides.
The Ambassador believes that the integration of the Karabakh population into the general population is quite possible and that their cultural, educational and religious rights can be guaranteed.
He says there are already 30,000 Armenians living in mixed marriages in his country outside Karabakh.
“Full normalization will take some time,” he told the BBC. “But trucks full of food have already been transported to Khankendi; In the coming days there will be fuel deliveries and the restoration of infrastructure such as kindergartens.”
This is an optimistic view when Azerbaijani forces are stationed on the outskirts of the regional capital and the disarmament of the Karabakh army has not yet been completed.
As soon as the time comes, the Azerbaijanis will move in.
At that point, the local population will be completely dependent on Azerbaijan’s promises, says Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Center think tank in Armenia.
“The immediate problem for Karabakh Armenians is the lack of security guarantees, not only from Azerbaijan but also from Russian peacekeepers,” he says.
Ultimately, he believes that Karabakh’s male population will be allowed to leave because there is too much international attention.
But he is also extremely skeptical as to whether anyone can be persuaded to join Azerbaijani society.
“They act as if they want to integrate us,” says Siranush Sargsyan. “But they want to drive us out of this place.”