Timothee Chalamet plays Paul Atreides in Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Two.
Warner Bros. | Legendary entertainment
“The release of 'Dune: Part Two' comes at a time when the industry is looking for that blockbuster that will ignite momentum,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
So far in 2024, no film has generated more than $100 million in revenue. While surprise hits like Sony's “Anyone But You” alongside Paramount's “Mean Girls” and “Bob Marley: One Love” helped fill theaters, blockbuster holdovers from the holiday season were few and far between at the box office Novelties in the new year.
Last year, the first quarter was boosted by $263 million in ticket sales for Disney's “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which was released in December of the previous year. Likewise, there was more than $200 million in remaining revenue in 2022 from Sony and Marvel's 2021 hit “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”
“We're used to these ups and downs,” said Bill Barstow, who runs ACX Cinemas, a theater chain with six locations in five states. “And certainly the last three years of the pandemic and the strikes and all the things that are kind of shaking us are no secret. But then something like 'Dune' comes along.”
The ten best film titles so far in 2024
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) – $81.3 million
- “Mean Girls” (Paramount) – $72.1 million
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount) – $71.1 million
- “Migration” (Universal) – $66.2 million
- “The Beekeeper” (Amazon MGM) – $63.1 million
- “Anyone But You” (Sony) – $62.1 million
- “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.) – $47.6 million
- “Argylle” (Universal) – $41.6 million
- “Madame Web” (Sony) – $35.3 million
- “Night Swim” (Universal) – $31.8 million
Source: Comscore
“It's been a long winter at the box office, which isn't surprising after numerous strike-related delays in recent months have blighted an already disappointing studio slate,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “‘Dune: Part Two’ represents a turning point.”
While Warner Bros. is predicting a conservative $65 million debut for the highly anticipated sci-fi sequel, box office analysts are expecting it to gross between $70 million and $80 million. Especially because moviegoers are likely to gravitate toward premium large-format screenings, which are more expensive than regular tickets.
“We have had sold-out 'See It First' screenings at all of our IMAX locations and the response from guests has already been extremely positive,” said Jeff Whipple, vice president of advertising, marketing and public relations for Larry H. Miller Megaplex Theaters operates 15 locations, predominantly in Utah.
“Utah film fans know that 'Dune: Part Two' is a big movie that needs to be seen on the biggest screen possible,” he noted, adding that the Megaplex locations are experiencing strong advance ticket sales to premier venues such as IMAX, Dolby Atmos and more record D-Box motion screens.
The appeal of these higher-priced tickets has some theater owners believing the film could beat projections.
“I think Warner Bros. has been conservative,” said Tim Handren, CEO of Santikos Entertainment, a regional movie theater chain with 27 theaters in eight states. “Warner Bros. has done an absolutely fantastic job marketing this film.”
“They are geniuses at marketing,” ACX Cinemas’ Barstow reiterated. “They just know how to build awareness.”
The cast of the film has been heavily promoting the film for weeks, participating in junkets, video interviews and appearances on late night shows. Even the stars' premiere outfits made headlines and increased awareness for the film's release.
Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya attend the world premiere of “Dune: Part Two” at Leicester Square on February 15, 2024 in London, England.
Gareth Cattermole | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Alongside industry veterans like Christopher Walken, Stellan Skarsgard, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin and Dave Bautista, Dune: Part Two stars four of Hollywood's biggest young stars – Zendaya, Timothee Chalamet, Florence Pugh and Austin Butler.
According to data from Fandango, early ticket sales for the weekend are ahead of Universal's “Oppenheimer,” which opened with $82.4 million, but below “Jurassic World Dominion,” which debuted with about $145 million.
While theater owners are focused on the film's opening weekend, they may be more interested in Dune: Part Two's longevity at the box office.
While there are a number of new releases in March that will help pad the domestic box office total, “April is not nearly as strong,” Handren pointed out.
Highly anticipated film premieres in 2024
march
- “Dune: Part Two” (March 1)
- “Imaginary” (March 8)
- “Kung Fu Panda 4” (March 8)
- “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” (March 29)
April
- “The First Omen” (April 5)
- “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (April 12)
May
- “The Fall Guy” (May 3)
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (May 10)
- “Imaginary Friends” (May 17)
- “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (May 24)
- “The Garfield Movie” (May 24)
Titles like Dune: Part Two — which have a real chance of staying in theaters as ticket sales decline limited week after week — can help keep box offices afloat until the summer movie season begins in early May.
The film also offers cinema operators the opportunity to give audiences a taste of upcoming films with the all-too-familiar pre-release previews.
“I think 'Dune' opens up the whole world for us in the summer,” Barstow said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.