CNN –
Demand for high-speed rail services is booming in Europe. Travelers are desperately looking for a quick and sustainable alternative to short-haul flights and congested highways.
But there is a problem.
On many routes, demand exceeds supply. Trains are full and prices are often exorbitant, forcing many travelers to use less environmentally friendly modes of transport.
Europeans want more routes and more trains on existing routes between major cities, where expansion is currently hampered by insufficient capacity, political problems and a lack of investment.
Unlike airlines, which can add new routes in months, new high-speed routes take decades and billions of dollars to build, especially where they cross international borders.
One of the biggest bottlenecks currently is the Channel Tunnel, the undersea rail link between Britain and France that belongs to the Eurostar, the high-speed train that connects London, Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam.
Eurostar competes with airlines on busy European routes but is currently unable to capitalize on huge untapped demand due to capacity issues at stations in London, Paris and Amsterdam – and a chronic shortage of border control staff in the UK.
While there is enough space on the dedicated high-speed trains in the UK, Belgium, France and the Netherlands and through the Channel Tunnel, border staff cannot process enough passengers every hour to fill the 900-seat trains.
This means that some left with vacant seats. Adding more trains would overload inner-city stations (Eurostar announces it will suspend services between London and Amsterdam for six months from June 2024 while upgrades are made to the service’s terminal in the Netherlands).
However, changes could come before the end of this decade.
After almost 30 years of monopoly power, Eurostar suddenly finds itself facing a range of new competitors on its core international routes, with competition offering the prospect of more trains, more choice and lower fares.
Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock
Eurostar will stop services to Amsterdam for six months from June 2024.
London could get additional high-speed trains to Belgium and the Netherlands under ambitious plans unveiled by new start-up Heuro on November 14.
Founded by a trio of Dutch entrepreneurs, Heuro aims to compete directly with Eurostar on the Amsterdam-Paris/London routes from 2028, offering up to 15 trips per day to London and 16 to Paris.
Inspired by the success of Italian private operator Italo and competition from high-speed trains in Spain and France, Heuro’s founders are seeking to shift travelers from planes to trains on some of Europe’s busiest short-haul air routes.
“We just want lower prices and more people who no longer fly and sit on the train,” says Heuro founder Roemer van den Biggelaar.
“There are still 55 flights [a day] from Amsterdam to London and back, which I think is a lot,” he adds. “And there is a very nice tunnel with a high-speed line.
“I also find traveling by train ten times nicer than by plane. There are still capacity problems at passport control towards London, but something like that can be solved.
“The Eurostar is often quite full. If we let trains run there too, we hope that prices will fall.”
Heuro has not yet revealed how much its tickets would cost, but it plans to undercut Eurostar and, if successful, add more connections to other cities. Eurostar has said it does not comment on such announcements and is focused on expanding sustainable travel in Europe.
High-speed rail competition in Italy and Spain has helped increase service frequencies, reduce fares by up to 40% and expand the market on some routes by up to 300% over the last decade, according to figures published by ALLRail shows what is not the case – state railway operators in the European railway market.
ALLRail President Erich Forster welcomed Heuro’s announcement, saying: “Competition in Italy has led to more choice and more trains.” It is clearly also the solution for the northwest European high-speed rail market.
“Simply put, start-ups like Heuro are the future of rail passenger transport. We look forward to an alternative to the current situation – with just one operator [Eurostar] – The market is chronically undersupplied.”
Peter Byrne/PA Images/Getty Images
Unfinished task? Virgin’s rail operations in the UK ceased four years ago.
Heuro’s announcement came just three days after British newspaper The Daily Telegraph reported that Richard Branson’s Virgin empire wants to return to the rail sector to compete with Eurostar, four years after its last British contract.
Although the Virgin story was dismissed as speculation, the report suggested that a former Virgin Trains boss had been nominated to lead the new international rail operation between London and Paris.
Branson has previously said he feels he still has “unfinished business” in the rail sector and that Virgin could become a serious competitor to Eurostar if the rumors prove true.
Also backed by wealthy investors, Spanish startup Evolyn was the first to show its hand in October.
It announced plans to challenge Eurostar on the Paris-London route from 2025 and offer the full service from 2026. However, rail industry experts have expressed serious doubts about whether this goal is achievable.
Since only one type of train – the Eurostar e320 built by Siemens – is currently in production and approved for use in the Channel Tunnel, and Siemens’ production lines are at full capacity with a major order for Deutsche Bahn, Evolyn is relying on the French transport giant Alstom and could Use trains similar to the latest generation TGV-M.
Alstom has stated that it is currently only in discussions with the new company.
Patrick Leveque/SIPA/AP
Trains similar to the French TGV-M could be used on the Channel Tunnel routes.
Since Alstom’s La Rochelle factory also plans to build 100 TGV-Ms for the French state railway SNCF over the next decade, Evolyn’s chances of having new trains designed, built and approved in less than two years are very slim.
To serve London, all three challengers face the same obstacles.
All must procure high-speed trains that meet strict Channel Tunnel fire safety regulations, as well as security and power systems in up to five countries.
European rail commentator Jon Worth told CNN Travel: “Order trains from Siemens and maybe you’ll get a new train through the tunnel by 2028, but more likely 2030.”
“There is no fundamental reason why a TGV-M could not be built to be compatible with the Channel Tunnel fire safety regulations, but to date this has not been done – and it would take 12 months to get a new design approved.”
Spanish railway builder Talgo offers a possible alternative. Its new high-speed train “Avril”, currently undergoing final tests in Spain and France, will be used on international services linking Madrid and Barcelona to French cities and has the attention of French open access contenders Le Train and Kevin Speed attracted to himself.
Talgo should be able to deliver suitable high-speed trains sooner than Alstom, but would also need to redesign Avril to comply with Channel Tunnel regulations and get the new variant approved by the tunnel regulator and infrastructure owners in France and the UK.
That’s a process that’s likely to be measured in years rather than months, meaning any new train will be delivered toward the end of this decade.
“And as if all that wasn’t complex enough, new operators are having difficulty finding ways to do this [the timetabled slots allocated to each service]“It is extremely complex to invest in busy train stations such as Paris’ Gare du Nord and in terminal capacity due to burdensome border controls post-Brexit,” adds Jon Worth.
“This is particularly complex [London’s] St Pancras, which has little scope for expanding passport and security facilities. Neither is insurmountable, but not easy at all.”
Manuel Romano/NurPhoto/Getty Images
Italy’s Frecciarossa high-speed trains have been used successfully in Italy, Spain and France.
‘Bigger and better’
Arguably the most credible challenge to Eurostar looms on routes that are not affected by the political and operational problems that are hampering high-speed rail to London.
The Italian Railways subsidiary, QBuzz, has applied to the Dutch competition authority for permission to operate the Amsterdam-Brussels-Paris and Amsterdam-Cologne-Frankfurt routes (in competition with Germany’s Deutsche Bahn) with the excellent Frecciarossa high-speed trains operating in Italy are already being used with great success in Spain and France.
QBuzz expects to open its new routes from January 2027.
In the last two years, Italy’s Trenitalia has exerted a major influence on the Paris-Milan and Paris-Lyon routes, where the Frecciarossa competes directly with the TGV. Since December 2021, passenger numbers on the Milan route have increased by 58%, while fares have fallen by an average of 7%.
“This new example and others, such as SNCF and Trenitalia, which compete with Spanish railways, show how long-distance competition between incumbent operators is driving a modal shift towards passenger rail,” says Nick Brooks, secretary general of ALLRAIL, an advocacy group that Represents non-railroads. State railway operator.
Europe wants to double the use of high-speed trains by 2030 – in just six years – and triple the current level by 2050. Only a massive – and accelerated – expansion of the high-speed network can achieve these extremely ambitious goals.
Opening existing high-speed lines to new operators will help create new capacity and attract more passengers through new routes, lower costs and more travel options, but the challenges involved should not be underestimated.
Alberto Mazzola, chief executive of the Community of European Railways (CER), said his organization wants a high-speed rail network connecting all major cities, urban hubs and airports.
“With affordable and comfortable trains, rail will become the preferred mode of transportation,” he told CNN Travel, emphasizing the need for all 27 European Union countries to invest in high-speed trains.
“Our research clearly shows the significant socio-economic and sustainable benefits of an EU-wide high-speed rail network,” he said. “At an estimated $800 billion, the long-term economic benefits will be significantly greater than the costs – an estimated $587 billion – and these connections would deliver an extraordinary increase in rail ridership and market share.”
ALLRAIL’s Brooks added: “We want high-speed trains with 1,000 seats each to regularly connect locations across Europe. This will result in low fares and high revenue. While other competing long-distance transport modes are setting a goal of net-zero emissions, rail can achieve this even bigger and better.”