Listen to the audio version of the article
“Energy prices in Europe have fallen, and not just because of the price cap announcement. Speculators are probably positioning themselves because they suspect the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. In such a context, the ECB should reconsider its declared intention of raising interest rates again at the beginning of the year.” The appeal comes from Antonio Patuelli, President of ABI, in an interview with Sole 24 Ore on January 3 on newsstands. “I declare – declares the number 1 of the banking association – that I still hold the opinion that Governor Visco illustrated in September when he urged not to take preconceived positions on interest rate hikes, but to evaluate each time”.
The decision alone to introduce a price cap for gas has intensified the fall in prices. However, these had grown well before February 24, 2022 and the war in Ukraine, because the speculation came from the East: there were those in Russia who knew that war cadres were being prepared, and those who knew in Russia too West, thanks to satellite instruments with which they warned the Ukrainians in advance what was happening to them; All of this has led to speculative operations, the impact of which has been detrimental to Europeans when evaluating gas. The fact that the Europeans have sent a strong signal has therefore helped to ease the pressure on the price. But we don’t know what speculators are likely to know or suspect in recent days. And that is that there are the conditions for peace».
All of this, according to Patuelli, “paints a different picture than that analyzed by the central banks a few weeks ago, when within hours between the 13th and 15th they then 0.5% the ECB, which the Americans at 4.5% and brought the euro zone to 2.5%. The changed gas price picture must be taken into account here: The intention expressed by the ECB of a further interest rate hike at the beginning of the year should be reviewed. In my opinion, before we decide, we should think again: with the fall in the price of gas, the key factor of inflation will shrink, and therefore we need to be more careful when raising interest rates».