A new report from the Sipri research institute paints a grim picture of the world’s future: environmental crises meet security crises and other threats, such as pandemics.
According to the Sipri research institute, a dangerous mix of environmental and security crises harbors complex risks for world peace. In a report published on Monday, Stockholm peace researchers warn that decision-makers are not yet prepared for this “new era of risk”. It paints a grim picture of the future global security situation.
The report shows how environmental crises – climate change, resource scarcity, species extinction – can interact with security crises and other threats such as the corona pandemic. Former Swedish Foreign Minister and EU Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström writes in the preface: “The mixture is toxic, pervasive and harmful. And institutions with the power to find solutions are waking up very slowly.”
Climate change leads to instability
In Somalia, for example, persistent drought and other consequences of climate change, combined with poverty and a weak government, have drawn people into the arms of the al-Shabaab Islamic terrorist militia, they say. In Central America, the effects of climate change on grain crops, combined with violence and corruption, have increased migration to the US.
“Many experts argue that we are at a crucial point: we can either let the environmental crisis run its course or recognize the problem now and do something about it,” said Sipri director Dan Smith. “The bad news is that this extremely important moment comes at a time when international politics are in a terrible state.” Relations between the great powers are “toxic and dangerous”, populism and nationalism are on the rise.
Number of armed conflicts has doubled since 2010
According to the report, the number of armed conflicts involving at least one state and the number of people killed in conflicts doubled in the 2010s, as did the number of refugees and displaced persons worldwide. After years of decline, the number of operational nuclear warheads has risen again in 2020. Last year, global military spending peaked at over $2 trillion.
At the same time, the report describes alarming developments in the environment. About a quarter of all species are threatened with extinction. The number of pollinating insects is decreasing dramatically. “Climate change is making extreme weather events such as storms and heat waves more frequent and more intense, reducing yields of important food crops and increasing the risk of large-scale crop failures.” Politicians must better assess the risks and face with determination the fight against environmental crises.
Demand for “green economy”
The Sipri researchers called for a rapid transition to a “green economy”, which must also take place in a fair and peaceful way. “With such a massive economic shift, there are always winners and losers,” Smith said. “The interests of the people most affected by this transition must be taken into account. Otherwise, new risks of conflict will arise.”
Even in the face of acute crises such as the corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine, we must not lose sight of this objective, warned Smith. “It seems that most governments can only deal with one crisis at a time. That’s a big complication.” The pandemic has also shown what is possible with determination and international cooperation – for example, in vaccine development.
The researchers, therefore, also want to give hope. “Humanity has the knowledge and skills to get out of the trouble we’re in,” Smith said. But action must be taken now. “Every day we put it off, the work gets harder.”
(APA/dpa)