Story by David Ubben, Nicole Auerbach and Justin Williams
On the field at Notre Dame Stadium after Ohio State University’s last-second win over the Irish, an emotional Ryan Day began what would become one of the all-time coaching banter. It was directed at 86-year-old Lou Holtz, of all people, who said that Day’s Buckeyes struggled against physically stronger teams.
“I can’t believe what he said about our team,” Day shouted in his postgame interview. “This is a strong team. We are proud to be from Ohio. It’s always been Ohio against the world, and it will continue to be Ohio against the world.”
Beating Notre Dame like Ohio State was impressive, but that’s not the opponent the Buckeyes need to prove they can beat in a physically demanding football game. This is ultimately and always Michigan.
But before? It’s Penn State, which enters Saturday’s top-10 matchup in Columbus undefeated and loaded with talent on both sides. Penn State has beaten Ohio State just once since 2012, including three losses from 2017 to 2019 when both teams were ranked in the top 10. Under coach James Franklin, Penn State went 1-8 against Ohio State, winning only (2016) coming to Happy Valley.
Could it be time for Penn State to break through?
“Yes, talent-wise, Penn State is on the same level as Ohio State,” said a head coach who faced the Nittany Lions earlier this season. He added that he estimates Penn State has up to a dozen NFL draft picks on the team.
A loss to the Nittany Lions on Saturday would spell disaster for Day, who has suffered just six total losses in his head coaching career — but also an army of skeptics about how and to whom Ohio State lost those games. This is a must for Day in a game that doesn’t involve Michigan.
“Defensively, it’s not like they’re full of guys,” said an assistant whose team played Ohio State earlier this season. “It’s just not the type of Ohio State defense where you put the film on and think, ‘F–, how are we going to block these guys?'”
So how will Saturday’s mammoth Big Ten East showdown turn out? What should we make of the two titans? And can both teams actually beat Michigan when they face each other later this season?
The Athletic spoke with eight coaches whose teams faced off with either the Buckeyes or Nittany Lions to get their take on both teams and how things might play out in Saturday’s clash. The trainers were granted anonymity in order to be able to discuss strategic questions openly.
Oh, and was Lou Holtz right? We asked that too.
Ohio State Strengths and Weaknesses
Ohio State’s two most talked-about position groups – defensive line and receiver – are as good as advertised, coaches said.
“They have the best receiver room in college football,” said an assistant who played against Ohio State. “It’s comparable to an NFL receiver room. All three starters will play on Sunday.”
Marvin Harrison Jr., the headliner of the loaded group, has four games with 100 yards and a touchdown this season and is expected to be a first-round pick next spring. In 2022, he and Emeka Egbuka became only the second group of Ohio State teammates to reach the top 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. Egbuka missed Saturday’s game at Purdue and his status for the game against Penn State is in question. That hurts a passing attack led by Kyle McCord, a first-year quarterback who is improving every week but is clearly in need of his best weapons.
“Everything runs through Marvin Harrison,” said one coordinator who faced the Buckeyes this season. “If you can find a way to stop him, give yourself a chance.”
Senior Julian Fleming was also a five-star recruit, and freshmen Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss give the Buckeyes another pair of future stars. And then there’s tight end Cade Stover, the team’s second-leading receiver, who had an opposing assistant coach raving about it.
“(People) talk about him as a pass catcher, but he’s a dirty worker in the run game,” the assistant said. “He’s physical, he tries to throw his face into the fan when he blocks. For them, he’s kind of the unsung hero in the running game.”
Edge rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer also impressed their opponents this season. The duo each rank in the top 15 in pressure rate in the Big Ten, according to TruMedia.
“The two D-linemen were pretty darn incredible,” said one coordinator who played against Ohio State. “It was almost like having two receivers out there at D-lineman. It looked like they were out there working on O-linemen releases. Their feet were so fast and it looked like they had a release package. They can dive in and run under you, they can run around you, and then they can run through you. These are two top players who will play on Sundays. I knew Sawyer was a good player, but I didn’t expect him to be as explosive as the other guy.”
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Where can you beat Ohio State? The coaches identified a handful of spots on the roster. Almost every coach The Athletic spoke with also pointed out that Ohio State’s secondary is the team’s biggest liability.
“The secondary as a whole is probably not what people are used to,” said one coordinator. “They’re going to play a lot of man and expect the guys at the front to come home and protect the guys at the back, but if they don’t do that, I think they’re vulnerable there. The backend didn’t blow me away.”
He noted that if defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can’t mix up coverages as much as he would with a more savvy secondary, good passing offenses that can protect their quarterback can take advantage.
“Their safeties and corners are actually average, maybe even below average,” one assistant said. “I know this is a crazy statement about Ohio State, but I think the corners are overrated and the safeties are average.”
One coach noted that cornerback Davison Igbinosun struggles when he’s not in press coverage, so using him on the field can lead to success for the offense. He also said the Buckeyes don’t like to play man defense when safety Sonny Styles is in the game, especially at nickel. This could be an indication of opposing offenses.
“You can stretch them vertically across the field,” he said.
Most coaches agreed that, unlike Ohio State teams in recent years, this squad does not yet have a difference maker under center. McCord still has time to mature into one.
“He looks like a quarterback still trying to find his way,” one coordinator said.
An assistant added: “It felt more like they were telling him not to lose rather than telling him to win it. … It’s definitely more of a game manager role for him now than a game winner.”
Another aide said McCord was underestimated and “deceptively accurate.” But will these qualities prevail in the toughest challenges on the Buckeyes’ schedule?
“It seems like when something goes wrong or they start struggling, the only thing they have in their pocket is finding (Harrison),” one coordinator said. “He is a really talented player. He is one of the best players in all of college football. For teams that have the ability to pressure him, rattle him, and take 18 points away from him, the biggest question is: How will McCord perform if someone takes 18 out of the game?”
The same coordinator said Ohio State hasn’t beaten teams this year by outsmarting them, but instead has worked to get the ball to Harrison and running back TreVeyon Henderson, who also missed last week’s game against Purdue. Against evenly matched teams, simply putting the ball in the hands of the best players may not be enough.
Henderson could return Saturday, but it’s still a banged up backfield: Miyan Williams was also sidelined against Purdue, and third-stringer Chip Trayanum left the game with an injury, leaving Ohio State without its fourth running back.
Last month, the Buckeyes snapped their impressive 15-game, 75-yard winning streak to beat Notre Dame with just one completion against Harrison, but they finished with just 17 points in a game in which Harrison caught three passes for 32 yards.
Part of the problem, several coaches said, is the offensive line, particularly the two tackles, freshman starter Josh Fryar and San Diego State transfer Josh Simmons.
“We felt like we could attack the edges against those guys, especially because the guards were both starters,” said an assistant who started against the Buckeyes. “It was definitely our plan to attack the outside edges.”
“I wasn’t impressed with right tackle Fryar. When we played it, I thought he was fine,” another assistant said.
But what about the now infamous criticism from Holtz that enraged Day after the win over Notre Dame? Does Ohio State lose games against big opponents because they aren’t strong enough in the fight? The coaches The Athletic spoke to were torn.
“I don’t think Ohio State has the guys up front that they’re normally used to,” one coordinator said.
“NO. No. They’re not soft. I can’t believe (Lou Holtz) said that,” an assistant said.
“I don’t think they’re soft. Just inexperienced, maybe not as much star power as usual,” another assistant said. “But I bet they have a lot of young guys who will end up being pretty good but still finding their way.”
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Penn State Strengths and Weaknesses
Penn State returned 14 starters after the program’s first Rose Bowl victory since 1994. “This is probably the most talented team they’ve had in a long time,” said a personnel official who faced the Nittany Lions earlier this year.
This team is still largely untested, but opened the season with a win over West Virginia, whose only other loss came against Hail Mary after time expired.
The Nittany Lions didn’t face nearly the challenge that Ohio State will present in their 6-0 start, but along the way they left the coaches impressed with arguably the best defense in the country. Even with Tuimoloau and Sawyer, Ohio State’s defense ranks 69th nationally in defensive pressure rate (32.2 percent). Penn State now ranks first nationally in this category, pressuring opposing passers on 50.5 percent of its dropbacks, while also ranking second nationally in sacks and 10th in tackles for loss.
“On their defensive ends, they have three elite P5 players, and they may have the best collective group of linebackers in the country,” said one head coach who faced the Nittany Lions. “They have two NFL draft picks at corner who can play man; One is a first-rounder, the other is probably a third or fourth-rounder. Their third-down package is good, but they don’t need to do anything crazy. (Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz) likes to be creative, but they don’t have to do a lot to get to the quarterback.”
“They rush the passer well, they’re athletic – it just seemed like they were everywhere,” added an assistant coach who faced the Nittany Lions.
Both teams are in the process of acquiring first-year quarterbacks, but Allar played more spot duty behind Sean Clifford than McCord did behind CJ Stroud a year ago. The same head coach gives Penn State the quarterback advantage in this game, unlike most meetings between these two teams in the last decade.
“He’s hoping for a breakthrough performance, it’s just a question of when,” the head coach said of Allar. “He played really solid. Sometimes people think that “solid” doesn’t mean good enough, but no, this team is built on dominating football and defense, and he plays winning football. That’s them.”
Penn State appears comfortable relying on a consistent offensive burst and short or intermediate passes, but the lack of big plays has caused consternation among the fan base. This year, the Nittany Lions rank 129th in the FBS in scrimmage plays of more than 20 yards. They have just 16 in six games and just one play longer than 40 yards, the lowest number among all 133 FBS teams.
Although Franklin recently bristled at a reporter who suggested Allar could simply “go deep,” Penn State’s lack of explosiveness on offense is an issue that could become even more pressing on Saturday.
“They don’t have to put it in the game because they win without putting it in the game,” the personnel person said. “If you can win in middle school, take it. When you have a young quarterback, rushing him down the field isn’t always the best idea.”
No coach cited Allar’s ability as a reason for the lack of big plays this season. The assistant said he thought Allar seemed comfortable with the system and was able to get the ball where he needed it.
“The kid has the best arm talent in the world,” the personnel rep said. “He’s got the guts, the quarterback you’re looking for. When you walk in the room, you know he’s a quarterback. He has this presence. They have good players and he has good arm talent, but I think a lot of young quarterbacks have trouble seeing the bigger picture (of the field). I expect him to play really good football by the end of this year because they have a really, really talented offensive line and they’re going to give him time to throw.”
This staffer argued that Penn State’s defensive line as a group may be better than Ohio State’s, even though the Buckeyes have star power on defense.
“(Johnny) Dixon is really, really good. Both cornerbacks are really good, (Kalen) King too. “Zane Durant, he’s just a little kid that plays really, really hard,” he said. “(Chop) Robinson, (Dani) Dennis-Sutton, (Tony) Rojas look good.”
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What about the Wolverines?
It’s impossible to talk about Ohio State or Penn State and not talk about Michigan this season. The Wolverines are undefeated and ahead of their Big Ten East opponents in the polls. They haven’t played a challenging schedule yet, but they have looked dominant on both sides of the ball and once again boast one of the best offensive lines in college football.
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck said after a 42-point loss that he thought Michigan was “the best football team I’ve seen in 11 years as a head coach.”…They’re one of the deepest teams, one of the best teams, one of the biggest teams, fastest teams, strongest teams, and they don’t make mistakes. They’re really like a boa constrictor.”
Can Ohio State end its two-game losing streak against its hated rival? Can the Nittany Lions beat a top-10 Michigan team for the first time since 1994? The coaches were not optimistic.
“Michigan is above both,” said one staff member who played Penn State. “Ohio State and Penn State are 2-a and 2-b in some order, but Michigan is well above both.”
The narrative about Ohio State’s questionable toughness under Day began to take shape when Michigan harassed the Buckeyes at the end of the 2021 season in Ann Arbor, rushing for nearly 300 yards and embarrassing what was once one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Wolverines then let the Buckeyes beat them last year as well.
“Michigan showed them the fight,” said an assistant coach who played against Ohio State. “We really won’t know anything about this year’s team until we see them play Michigan. In this game it will come down to the crucial question. I don’t know how physical they are. Notre Dame was a pretty physical game and they struggled to move the ball. This is the only team they have played against that can really compete with them in attack.”
Another assistant who played against the Buckeyes said, “It will be the Ohio State defensive line against the Michigan offensive line. The game is won right there.”
Another coordinator said he believes the Wolverines have an advantage on both offense and defense.
“This will force Ohio State to play in a different style than they do,” the sophomore coordinator said. “Well, to give Ohio State credit, Notre Dame went into that game trying to outplay them in a phone booth and they responded. And so Ohio State experienced physicality. They’ve seen a team try to shove it down their throats, and there are things Michigan needs to work on and do differently. I don’t think the answer is to put them completely in a phone booth and try to trick them, because they’ve shown they can handle it. You have to attack them in a variety of ways and try to find a way to create explosive plays.”
This coach said he believes both Michigan and Penn State will beat Ohio State.
How the Ohio State-Penn State game will go
So what happens on Saturday?
“I think it’s going to be a hell of a game. I don’t know the line, but if I was a betting man, I would probably bet on Penn State,” said an assistant who competed against Ohio State.
The assistant who faced the Nittany Lions said, “I would put my money on Penn State.”
This sentiment was most strongly supported by the coaches of both teams surveyed. Most coaches saw a clear path for Penn State to win, but fell far short of picking a winner.
“If (Penn State) can line up with those receivers and get some pressure up front, they’ll be fine,” one coordinator said. “If they can’t do it, I think it’s going to be a bad deal for the guys.”
Another factor the Nittany Lions must overcome: location. Under Franklin, Penn State is 0-9 on the road against top-10 opponents.
“The home advantage will be great,” said an assistant. “It depends on the line of scrimmage. If they can get their running game going and set up deep throws, it will be a really competitive game. They play really good defense in the Big Ten East.”
“At the beginning of the season I loved Penn State and thought they could make the playoffs,” one assistant said. “I think Penn State has what it takes to win, but Ohio State’s team is better than I thought. …
“I have no idea.”
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)