A turbulent year marked by protests against pension reform, the outbreak of the banlieues and the adoption of the immigration law in December with the votes of the right and the extreme right. French President Emmanuel Macron has closed 2023 with deep fractures within his government and is now entering a key phase of his second and final term in office, with European elections in June and the Paris Olympics in July and August as a backdrop.
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A turbulent year marked by protests against pension reform, the outbreak of the banlieues and the adoption of the immigration law in December with the votes of the right and the extreme right. French President Emmanuel Macron has closed 2023 with deep fractures within his government and is now entering a key phase of his second and final term in office, with European elections in June and the Paris Olympics in July and August as a backdrop.
The last few weeks have left deep wounds in the centrist executive branch. In his traditional end-of-year televised address this Sunday, Macron took stock of the past few months, referring to both the conflict in Ukraine and the war in the Gaza Strip. He also stressed that “2024 must be, above all, a year of determination.” Little is known about his intentions, except that, as he told Le Monde newspaper, he will organize a “meeting with the nation” in January to send a “message of unity.”
There are divisions, especially within the presidential bloc itself. The latter became apparent after the adoption of the new immigration law on December 19, after the Macronists agreed with the right-wing Republicans (LR) on a tougher version of the text. A quarter of Macron's supporters voted against or abstained. Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau has resigned. And others threatened to do so because they felt the law crossed red lines.
The political course was already marked by parliamentary unrest. The French leader, re-elected in April 2022, does not have the absolute majority that would have allowed him to pass laws without hindrance in his first term in office. With a relative majority, Macron is forced to negotiate text by text on every reform he wants to implement. Therefore, the immigration law had to be renegotiated with the right after the entire opposition refused to debate it in the National Assembly.
The new version was supported by Rassemblement National (RN), the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, which quickly won an “ideological victory.” Part of the French voted for Macron in 2022 to prevent Le Pen from coming to power. According to polls, his party is the big favorite to win the next European elections in June. In his message on Sunday, the president referred to the elections, which he said would be a choice between “continuation of Europe or a blockade.”
The wounds of pension reform
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Macron's message also ended a year marked by the banlieue revolt sparked by the death of a minor at the hands of a police officer on June 27. In addition, the adoption of the pension reform in April also left deep wounds and highlighted the gap between the leader and the citizens.
Despite massive protests, strikes and resistance from the majority of French people, the executive agreed to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. This was done through Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be passed without the vote of MPs. Along with the immigration law, the reform was one of Macron's star projects in the presidential election campaign. Both cost him harsh rejection. And they haven't completely fallen by the wayside. In the case of the immigration law, the President has appealed to the Constitutional Council – equivalent to the Constitutional Court – to review the legality of the most controversial points. The decision will be announced in January. However, Macron stressed on Sunday that the coming year will be a year of “hope” and “pride”. “This year will determine a large part of our future,” he emphasized.
In the diplomatic field, the year 2024 will focus on France. At least three meetings will bring together the country's international leaders. The first will take place in June, celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings. The political event takes place a few days before the European elections from June 6th to 9th. The Olympics in late July and early August will provide Macron with another opportunity to shine internationally. The course ends with the planned reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral, which has been closed since the serious fire in 2019, in December.
But the horizon is blurry for now. “Today there is no agenda. “There is a new page to be written and it is up to the President of the Republic to say what new chapters we will open,” said Modem (Democratic Movement) President François Bayrou, one of the main representatives of Macron's loyal allies, on Thursday on France Inter radio station. However, some topics are already on the agenda. The president promised to enshrine the right to abortion in the first trimester in the constitution. Voluntary abortion was decriminalized in 1975, but there is no guarantee of this in the constitution. Another topic that needs to be discussed in 2024 is that of dying with dignity. Neither assisted suicide nor euthanasia are legal in France. After several postponed debates, a bill will be presented in February, the president said.
In the short term, the big question will be whether there will be a government shake-up after the scars left by the immigration debate. Macron already made changes in July following the banlieue and pension crisis, albeit on a limited scale. The question remains open.
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