Person of the week: Recep Erdogan No sanctions: Erdogan prefers to build a nuclear plant with Putin
By Wolfram Weimer 03/29/2022, 08:55
The Turkish president has established himself as a peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine. In doing so, he pursues his own interests. Turkey is the only NATO country not to participate in the sanctions. Instead, Erdogan secures new pipeline deals, attracts oligarchs and builds a massive nuclear power plant with Russia.
The world looks to Istanbul and hopes for peace. Representatives from Russia and Ukraine want to talk about a ceasefire in the Turkish metropolis. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally agreed to this. The first ministerial-level talks took place on March 10 in Antalya, Turkey.
Erdogan and Putin in Sochi in September 2021.
(Photo: picture Alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Erdogan was thus able to position himself as a diplomatic negotiator for both sides in the conflict. Neither Emmanuel Macron or Olaf Scholz, nor Israel or Switzerland, nor the Pope or the UN organize the platform for peace negotiations – the Ankara despot, of all people, has become a mediator in the war.
Erdogan emphasizes the good relations on both sides. Both Russia and Ukraine are good neighbors on the Black Sea. Especially in Moscow, Erdogan doesn’t want to put his gang in danger. Turkey was the only member to abstain from suspending Russia’s membership of the Council of Europe. Turkey is also the only NATO country not to participate in Western sanctions against Russia.
Super yachts dock in Turkey
While European companies are painfully cutting back on their business with Russia, Ankara is opening the door to Russian partners. The country has even become a new haven for sanctioned oligarchs. Rows of yachts from wealthy Russians dock in Marmaris and Bodrum. The two superyachts (total value of $1.3 billion) owned by sanctioned Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich also docked in Turkey. The “Eclipse” even fled the Caribbean to Erdogan’s safe harbor. According to Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Russian oligarchs are expressly welcome in Turkey. EU sanctions are thus blatantly undermined.
Above all, Erdogan has economic reasons for his “friendship” with Putin. Russia is the most important importer among all trading partners. Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies. Similar to Germany, the country’s entire energy supply is mainly based on Russian raw materials. Russia also supplies two-thirds of wheat imports. Furthermore, Turkey attracts billions every year from the so-called “baggage trade”, tourism and activities of Turkish companies in Russia. Every year, several million Russians – in 2021 it was 4.7 million – travel to Turkey for holidays, Russian tourists are the largest group of guests.
Unlike in the EU, Russians can still withdraw money from many Turkish ATMs using their domestic bank cards. The activity of Turkish construction companies in Russia is also significant. The total volume of construction projects by Turkish companies in Russia will soon reach the $100 billion mark. The presence of Turkish buildings in Russia ranges from the Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg to the Federation Tower in Moscow, two of the tallest buildings in Europe.
Under no circumstances does Erdogan want to jeopardize thriving economic relations, especially as his country is currently struggling with serious economic problems and inflation. A loss of business with Russia would hit Turkey hard in its unstable situation.
Erdogan does a little better
Instead of sanctions, Erdogan is even expanding economic relations. With the withdrawal of Europeans from Russia, the Turks began to have new orders from Moscow. Just two years ago, Erdogan and Putin inaugurated the new “Turkstream” gas pipeline, whose pipes cross the Black Sea through Turkey to Europe. Last year, the “Balkan Stream” branch, which runs from Turkey and Bulgaria via Serbia to Hungary, went into operation, where Russian gas can be fed into other European networks.
Instead of emancipating himself from Russia, Erdogan is doing better in terms of energy policy. The first Turkish nuclear power plant is being built entirely by Russian state-owned Rosatom. The new showcase of Turkish modernity is being built under Russian leadership on the Turkish south coast at Akkuyu, near Mersin. The first block is scheduled to go into operation this year. Upon completion, the nuclear plant will cover about ten percent of Turkey’s energy needs – roughly the consumption of the metropolis of Istanbul. At the laying of the cornerstone of the third reactor unit, Putin and Erdogan were ceremoniously present – both via video.
What is unusual about the nuclear power plant is the fact that Russia not only builds it, but also pays for everything and operates it afterwards. The Akkuyu nuclear power plant is therefore the first project in the global nuclear industry to be built according to the “Build – Own – Operate” operator model – Russian-Turkish cooperation cannot be closer. The Akkuyu Project Company is 100% Rosatom, the cost is estimated at around 20 billion USD and it is contractually agreed that the Russian share should not fall below 51% in the future. Rosatom also brings uranium to Turkey.
The new nuclear partnership between Erdogan and Putin also calls for the Russians to build a uranium enrichment plant in Turkey. Erdogan might also see this as an option to open access to his own atomic bomb at some point.
Erdogan buys Russian weapons
With his close ties to Russia, the Turkish president wants to demonstrably emancipate himself from the West. In particular, Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system has raised doubts in NATO about Ankara’s loyalty to the alliance. The German Science and Policy Foundation analyzes Erdogan’s strategic line as follows: “Playing the West and Russia against each other is one of the main principles of Ankara’s foreign policy.”
Diplomats also see Erdogan’s stance as a “neo-Ottoman ambition”, just as Putin betrays a neo-Soviet way of thinking. The Turkish president sees the defunct Ottoman Empire as his political reference area in which he wants to regain influence. This also includes Ukraine. Because the southern parts of the current war zone were once part of the Ottoman Empire and were under Turkish rule. To this day, Crimean Tatars are a minority in Ukraine. Crimea, conquered by the Tsarist Empire in 1783, was one of the first territorial losses of the Ottoman Empire and has a high symbolic value for Turkey. By now acting as a peacemaker in this region, Erdogan is also demonstrating to Turks that he is regaining creative power in the former sphere of influence.
And so Erdogan now posits as a sultan that Putin should be allowed an “honorable withdrawal” from Ukraine. It must now be said: “Now you have to be the architect of the step that must be taken towards peace”, teaches Erdogan.
What he doesn’t say is that Putin doesn’t just have him in his hands because of raw materials, the nuclear plant, construction contracts and tourists. In an analysis of political power by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, referring to the war in Syria, it says: “The real Achilles heel is in the Syrian Idlib, which with Russian consent is de facto under a Turkish protectorate as the remaining rebel stronghold. Putin would give the green light for an attack by Assad’s forces, another two to three million people could flee to Turkey – given the already strong hostility to refugees, this would be difficult for the government to deal with internally.”