General David Petraeus headed the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan and was director of the CIA from 2011 to 2012. In an interview published today for Corriere della Sera, he says the war in Ukraine has entered an unpredictable phase: “There are many possible scenarios, depending on which of the two camps will be able to refuel, rearm, Replace losses and incorporate new skills. A series of scenarios ranging from a long, bloody, nightmarish standoff (with slow and tiring Russian advances in the southeast while Ukrainians continue limited counterattacks around Kyiv, Kharkiv to the east, Mykolaiv to the southwest and elsewhere) to a scenario in which one or the other takes over and fends off the enemies. Given the determination, resourcefulness and creativity shown and the fact that they are ‘playing at home’, Ukraine are a little more likely to develop an advantage. But it is unwise to rule out the possibility that Russia will learn from the myriad mistakes it has made and, even with other horrific losses in life and assets, could wear down Ukraine’s air defenses and resources over time.
According to the general, “if the Ukrainians receive enough critical resources from NATO countries, they may be able to launch multiple counterattacks, repel the Russians and limit the damage caused by missiles, missiles and bombing. Of particular importance for Ukraine are additional air defense systems (especially S300 and Buk), effective at higher altitudes than the “portable” Stinger systems; additional American switchblade drones (thousands), also with more powerful bomb and antitank missile capabilities; additional Turkish drones (thousands); Ammunition; humanitarian and economic aid; and replacement aircraft; all without big announcements. These resources can tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor and give it an edge at the negotiating table.” The ones that will open today in Istanbul and for which a draft contract is already being discussed.
Finally, as Stalingrad taught, Petraeus, in an interview with Viviana Mazza, points to a timing issue: With the spring rains and the melting of the frozen ground, “most wheeled vehicles, and perhaps even tracked vehicles, will not be able to get through the terrain unless they are stuck wanting to stay. This could prevent the Russians from breaking through, especially near Kyiv, and prolong the bloody standoff Ukraine is in ». How long? “Weeks, maybe months.”
