Petrodictatorships like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia gain strength from the war in Ukraine; understand

With less Russian oil on the market and an embargo on the product starting Monday, the fifth, authoritarian oilproducing governments will be warmly welcomed by dependent countries. the government of Venezuela insisted on sharing a picture of it COP27 on what Nicholas Maduro is warmly welcomed by the French President, Emmanuel Macron🇧🇷 The gesture attracted attention because in 2019 the France Maduro rejected and recognized Juan Guaido as leader of Venezuela. Now, in the midst of a looming energy crisis Europe because war in Ukrainefriendly gestures towards authoritarian leaders like Maduro and the prince Mohammed bin Salman are Saudi Arabia have become frequent. For analysts, the petroleum is the explanation.

On Monday, 5th, the allies of Ukraine will take the first step to ban Russia’s oil in retaliation for invading the country. The sanction promises to increase the impact on the energy sector worldwide as Moscow is a major oil exporter. In search of alternatives to avoid an energy and economic collapse, the West turns to the socalled petrodictatorships Authoritarian states with large oil reserves even after promising to make them pariahs.

In the most recent step, the government of Joe Biden Sanctions eased against Venezuela Authorizes US energy giant Chevron to operate jointly with PDVSA, albeit with reservations. A measure celebrated by Nicolás Maduro and criticized by Republicans.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro attended COP27 where he met with Emmanuel Macron and John Kerry from the US. Photo: Mohammed Salem/Portal

“It’s not necessarily a revival of petrostates with authoritarian governments per se, but Western countries have decided that their secular state interests will, at this point, take precedence over whatever concerns everyone is focusing on Russia and Eastern Europe,” explains Justin Dargin, energy expert at middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Think Tank, in an interview with Estao🇧🇷

“This is not a new phenomenon: Western countries have ignored certain authoritarian tendencies of their partners throughout the 20th century when political convenience has demanded it, such as America’s negotiations with many governments in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East,” he adds . . .

Excellent handshake with the President of Francia Emmanuel Macron, in the landmark of la #COP27, which is without a doubt a meeting place between the governments and countries of the world. The doors of Venezuela are open to the French. pic.twitter.com/iOQJtvidqC

— Nicolás Maduro (@NicolasMaduro) November 7, 2022

You United States deny that the recent rapprochement with Venezuela is a result of the energy crisis, but a reflection of “the longterm US policy aimed at lifting sanctions, pending concrete progress that will alleviate the suffering of the Venezuelan people and allow assistance for their return.” of democracy to Venezuela,” commented the Ministry of Finance. The partial approval came last Saturday after Venezuela’s government and opposition made progress in their negotiations in Mexico.

“All this rapprochement with Venezuela is actually ancient, but accelerated in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine,” says Vinicius Vieira, Professor of International Relations at the FGV. “The US wants to keep oil prices at at least reasonable levels to maintain market stability, which is essential both for geopolitical purposes and for domestic politics itself given the US’s dependence on oil, including transportation.”

“Historically, when there is a greater demand for oil, and that demand can only be satisfied by the supply of autocratic countries, those countries end up having greater bargaining power. So, everything we’ve seen from Venezuela in recent years, the question of an alternative government, the recognition of Guaidó, all of that really tends to remain in the past and ensure the Maduro regime’s survival,” he concludes away.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets US President Joe Biden upon his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at Al Salman Palace in July 2022 Photo: Bandar Algaloud/Kingdom of Saudi Arabia via Portal

In addition, it is the largest natural gas supplier for Europe in which the tap has been almost completely turned off in recent months Russia is the continent’s largest supplier of crude oil🇧🇷 The raw material accounts for twothirds of the European Union’s energy imports, followed by gas (27%). In 2021, almost threequarters of the bloc’s crude oil imports came from Russia (25.9%), Norway (9.1%), the US (8.4%) and others, according to European Commission data.

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“In 2020 and 2021, the EU was mainly dependent on Russia for imports of crude oil, natural gas and solid fossil fuels, followed by Norway for crude oil and natural gas,” notes the Commission in its annual report. The bloc has tried to reduce its energy dependency on imports, but The dependency ratio is still close to 60% and is even approaching 100% in some countries🇧🇷

In the second quarter of 2022, after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian oil imports amounted to 16.7%, down 8.3 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The bloc then turns to other partners, with imports increasing the United States, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the United Kingdom. But still far from making up for the Russian loss.

The United States is less dependent on Russian oil and more dependent on crude oil imports from Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, as well as some countries in Latin America and Africa. The country has been able to increase its domestic oil production through a controversial extraction technique called fracking, but is still far from selfsufficiency.

According to the Energy Information Administration, only 7.9% of crude oil imported by the country came from Russia, while in Canada that figure reaches 50%. But a rise in fuel prices contributing to runaway inflation and an unpopular president forced the country to put its oil reserves on the market and look for alternatives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 30, 2018

After promising as a presidential candidate to make the crown prince of Saudi Arabia an outcast for his role in the journalist’s assassination Jamal Khashoggi🇧🇷 Biden was forced to lower his tone on energy partner which has hitherto dictated the course of relations between the two nations.

“Russia itself has long served as a counterweight to the oil cartel’s power, so much so that it became part of the OPEC meetings, with Saudi Arabia leading the group and negotiating with Russia,” explains Vinicius Vieira. “Now that Russia appears to be out of this market, at least to the West, there is empowerment, particularly from Saudi Arabia, but also from Venezuela, which has slipped off American radar.”

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In theory, the major European embargo on Russian oil begins this Monday🇧🇷 Banning all oil from Moscow was an unviable option, both because of energy dependency and the risk of a global economic downturn if that entire amount is withdrawn from the market.

The alternative found by the European Union, along with the G7 and Australia, was to ban sea transport of the product to Europe only by sea, leaving Hungary free to receive it via pipelines and also to introduce a $60 cap (R$313) for banks, insurance companies and shipping companies to work with Russian oil.

Russia’s profit that went into the war is to be reduced without the world market being affected so abruptly. But setting a cap is still a source of tension between countries, in addition to skepticism among experts about its effectiveness, like Moscow has already advanced negotiations on its product With China and India🇧🇷

Greenpeace activists hold a banner near the Minerva Virgo oil tanker docked at the oil terminal in Bayonne, New Jersey, U.S. March 22, 2022 Photo: Bjoern Kils/Portal

In addition, a decision by OPEC+ (Group of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and with the presence of Russia) reducing its oil production has infuriated the Westi.e. by reducing supply when demand is high, oil prices will explode, which tends to directly benefit Vladimir Putin🇧🇷

OPEC+ members deny their action benefits Russia, but the decision left the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia even more shaken as Joe Biden had to engage in a dialogue with the crown prince, who promised to turn himself into a pariah🇧🇷

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The big question is how much these petrodictatorships will actually be able to meet global demand for the product. Although the Persian Gulf countries are known to have immense oil production the engine of their economy there is little transparency on the amounts available and their ability to ramp up production. Venezuela, on the other hand, has dense oil that is difficult to refine, and its oil industry is a shadow of what it was in the 1990s.but it can, at least temporarily, help the US stock its reserves.