I’m trying to describe how I’m feeling this week and “complicated” comes to mind. Week 9 is a six-team fantasy bye cup ypse. Go play the lottery if you have a starting lineup without at least one “Q” tag. And this week’s close changed the trajectory of at least one running back that we had eliminated.
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But tonight it looks easy. Philadelphia are unbeaten away favorites with 14 points and meet the worst team in the AFC South. Both teams have thickened passing trees, and we’re only looking for fantasy output from a select few players. There’s still some intrigue, though, and I’ve got two fill-in options to get you through the week.
First, let’s dive into the game itself and what to look out for in TNF.
The Eagles look to dominate Thursday night and continue their flight to the Super Bowl
Watching the end zone angle below, Jason Kelce snaps the ball at 0:24. Stop the video at 0:27. Three seconds after the snap, there is no defender within five yards Jalen hurts:
Philadelphia is one of three teams ranked in the top six for blocking run-pass win rate. As a result, they rank third in offensive yards per drive and have scored a touchdown or attempted a field goal in 45.3 percent of their game sequences. The offensive line has much of the credit, but Hurts’ improvement as a passer and the team’s personnel upgrades deserve some spotlight.
Last season was all about Nick Sirianni and Hurts always on the same side. They ripped the passing game, built a top-10 rushing offense that could run out of a plethora of personnel packages, and found themselves in a playoff game.
But her ingenuity was a facade. Hurts still needed time to develop as a quarterback. He was 23rd in third down passing success rate and converted on 34.2 percent of his attempts. However with AJ Brown in the crease and De Vonta Smith In his sophomore year, Hurts continues to impress.
The story goes on
Hurts is now ninth in the third-down success rate. He throws across the middle of the field while also having the fastest touchdowns of any quarterback. There is little he or the team cannot do.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been a boon to Fantasy Football. (Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Texans will have their work cut out on both sides of the ball tonight. Philadelphia has 469 offensive games and has more than one touchdown with just 12. Meanwhile, their defense is the only unit with a top-five ranking for sacks and interceptions.
I’m just interested in two Houston skill position players tonight, but before we get to that, let’s talk more about the Eagles’ offense and why they’re primed for a deep playoff run this year.
Sights in TNF
The Eagles show they are a complete team
Hurts and Brown hosting a clinic was one of last week’s highlights and the peripherals pointed to a big day. Philadelphia hovered around the league average in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), though Hurts leads all quarterbacks on planned rushing attempts. Brown was top 10 in goal percentage (30.3%) and second in his team’s percentage of air yards (42.5%).
With the Steelers lacking pass rush, the Eagles rightly took advantage. However, there is another aspect of them irreverent afternoon that has been overlooked.
Eagles’ Air Yards and Noise. (Photo by Chris Allen)
Good offenses can capitalize on a single strength to cover up their shortcomings. Consider the Bengals’ passing game (with Yes’Marr Chase), for example. Joe Burrow is fifth in EPA per game, but Cincinnati is bottom 10 in most rushing metrics. Your passing and running game remain asynchronous.
Philadelphia played in concert on Sunday.
The last time Hurts had above-average air yards per attempt and the team’s rushing success rate was above the league average (41.2%) was in Week 2. Since then, they’ve been efficient in either the air or on the ground. But on Sunday we saw both components of the offense work together, to the point where Hurts have to sit outside most of the fourth quarter.
I’m not expecting another four touchdown breakout from Hurts. While it would be a nice start to the week for my fantasy team, I’ll turn my attention to offense as a whole. If we continue to see effective performance from the running and passing games (in addition to strong defense), I look forward to seeing this team play at the end of January.
Dameon Pierce: Dual threat option
At this point there should be no doubt Dameon Piercehis abilities as a runner. His vision and burst were the highlight of some games this season. The list of players with more forced missed tackles starts and ends with Nick Chub. Pierce is also in the top 10 for explosive runs. He’s a threat on the field.
Houston would be wise to attack the Eagles front with Pierce. They are bottom five in terms of EPA and allowable pass rate, and their splits without Jordan Davis are significant. But sometimes a good defense is a better offense. With Hurts & Co. averaging the third most points per game, their defense has seen the third fewest running games.
Davis Mills might need to blow up more, but Pierce might still be a good fantasy option.
Participation in the Dameon Pierce route. (Photo by Chris Allen)
Pierce’s track participation has surpassed Burkhead’s in three of their last four games. As a result, the rookie has more goals and yards than the veteran and co-leads the team in red zone goals. NicoCollins‘ Absence removes another option for Mills Downfield. Pierce has yet to take away the third-down or two-minute role, but his double threat ability should be a key factor for the Texans tonight.
But don’t bench these guys
It’s week 9, so we know enough about each roster to gauge who’s eligible and who’s not. But we got six teams goodbye monitor injury situations and fewer wire waiver options as the season progresses. If you’re looking for some confirmation as to who should start tonight, I’ve primed two players for success in what is expected to be a low score.
Miles Sanders
Like last week, I will endorse a player in most rosters. But their environment suppresses their worth, making them difficult to trust when making lineups. I hope Miles Sanders don’t get hurt earlyjust like … did Rashod Bateman. Regardless, I’d have no problem putting him in my RB slot for week 9.
Eagles backfield touch share. (Photo by Chris Allen)
The Hurts-designed rushing rate compresses touch percentage for the entire backfield, but Sanders still comes out on top. He maintained the most touches (carries plus targets) in every game scenario. Normally we’d fight for any player who gets 18.1 touches per game, but Antonio Gibson has more fantasy points overall.
We need ceiling results. Thankfully, Sanders has the Texans’ run defense under control.
Explosive runs allowed in 2022. (Data from NFLreadr)
Houston is already a bottom 5 for expedited pass rate and EPA allowable. These metrics put Sanders on firm ground. But the Texans allowing the most explosive runs (10 or more yard gains) are setting him up for a top-12 performance. Coincidentally, Sanders has more carries for 10+ yards than all of the Eagles’ rushers combined. We know he’ll get the touches, but tonight’s matchup gives Sanders the runway for season-highs.
Brevin Jordan
People. I don’t have a drama decoder ring or special access to the team. But I can at least theorize who would benefit after Brandin Cooks was ruled out tonight:
Catching or trying to catch passes from Mills isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. However, if youIsaiah probably or Tyler Conklin“Sweepstakes, Brevin Jordan has a spot launch role for TNF.
The tight sophomore end returned in week 7 and matched immediately Jordan Akins into targets (4). However, Akins’ snaps fell on Sunday while Jordan’s were up 21.7%. Since returning to the team, Jordan has been third in goal percentage and air yard percentage and tied with most red zone goals. Also, the matchup is conducive to tight-end production.
DJ Char is the only perimeter receiver to score on Philadelphia’s outside corners. Combine secondary coverage with teams trailing the Eagles by two or more points on 48.7% of their plays, and you’ll find offenses turning to their inner options for relief. Pat Freiermuth (7-57-0) and Jacob Ferguson (6-40-1) both finished in the top 12 in consecutive games against Philadelphia.
In week-long DFS formats or as a bailout in season-long leagues, Jordan is a strong option on TNF.