Things are almost never easy for the Phillies, even when it seems like the stars align. So could Tuesday evening really have turned out differently?
The Phillies punched their ticket to the playoffs with another dramatic moment in a stadium that had seen so many spectators in the last calendar year, edging out the Pirates with a 3-2 win in 10 innings to secure victory their second straight postseason berth.
Johan Rojas delivered the game-winning hit, a two-hit single to center that sent the Citizens Bank Park crowd into a frenzy.
The latest late-game heroics were initiated by a lead built in the sixth inning that was squandered by Craig Kimbrel in the eighth inning. It was the seventh time in the last 16 games that the Phillies allowed a go-ahead or tie in the eighth inning or later, but they persevered in most of those games, winning 10 of the 16.
The Phillies not only secured a wild-card spot, but also the No. 4 seed, which carries home-field advantage in every game of the best-of-3 wild-card series.
At 88-69 with five games remaining, the Phillies have their highest win total since 2011. They are 18 games over .500 for the first time since the final day of this season. They’ve won six in a row and are ending the regular season the way any team would want, barring a little too much late-inning drama.
Most importantly, in the final two series against the Mets and Pirates, they are able to balance their rotation and rest their bullpen as they see fit. Game 1 of the Wild Card Round will take place on Tuesday, October 3, two days after Game 162.
Aaron Nola got off to a strong start for the second straight game, tipping his cap to the crowd at Citizens Bank Park as he walked off the field to a standing ovation. After limiting the Braves to two runs over six innings last week in Atlanta, he kept the Pirates off the board until the seventh, allowing one run over 6⅔ on a solo home run by Bryan Reynolds.
One of the few Phillies to fare worse since the All-Star break, Nola has a 4.99 ERA in his last 13 starts through Tuesday night. But all that matters is the way he pitches now, and right now he has his entire arsenal in use. He freezes batters with the two-seamer, keeps his changeup low and misses bats with the curveball.
Nola surpassed 200 strikeouts for the fifth straight non-COVID-shortened season. He is scheduled to start on the final day of the game at Citi Field, but will almost certainly be saved for the playoffs instead. There are nine days between Tuesday night and Game 2 of the wild-card round (Oct. 4), so Nola could play a shortened two- or three-inning appearance on Friday instead of a bullpen session. That’s all TBD.
Manager Rob Thomson has reiterated his belief in Nola as a big-game pitcher throughout 2023, even in the right-hander’s most difficult moments. He’s still the most likely bet to start Game 2 of the opening round.
While the crowd was loud, the Phillies’ hitters were quiet Tuesday night until Brandon Marsh opened the bottom of the sixth with a solo home run to right center. Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, their best pitcher and a 2023 All-Star who entered with 204 K’s, had no hits in five innings. Rojas and Trea Turner singled later in the sixth and a second run scored on a sacrifice fly smashed to center by Bryce Harper.
There has been a lot of celebration in the home clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park over the last calendar year, and the Phillies had another reason to celebrate on Tuesday night. It’s just the first step in a journey that took them two wins to complete a year ago, and one they’ll embark on this October with even more confidence. It won’t be easy to make another deep run — it will likely require eliminating both the Braves and Dodgers if the Phillies advance past the wild-card round — but good luck convincing any of these players to do so that he can’t do it.