The ways in which Western countries will support Ukrainian resistance are beginning to take shape. Officials are reluctant to discuss detailed plans because they are based on a Russian military victory that, while likely, has yet to materialize. But as a first step, Ukraine’s allies are planning how to help create and support a government-in-exile that could lead guerrilla operations against the Russian occupiers, according to several US and European officials.
The weapons that the United States provided to the Ukrainian military and continue to flow into the country will be critical to the success of the insurgency, officials say. The Biden administration has asked Congress, infused with a rare bipartisan spirit in defense of Ukraine, to pass a $10 billion humanitarian and military aid package that includes funding to replenish the weapons stockpiles already shipped.
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If the United States and its allies decide to support the rebels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be a key force, officials say, to bolster morale and rally Ukrainians living under Russian occupation to face their powerful and well-equipped enemy.
The possible takeover of Kyiv by Russia has sparked a flurry of planning at the State Department, the Pentagon and other US agencies in case the Zelenskiy government has to flee the capital or the country itself.
“Now we are preparing contingency plans for every possibility,” including a scenario in which Zelenskiy installs a government-in-exile in Poland, said a US administration official who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue. security issue.
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Zelenskiy, who has described himself as Russia’s “Target No. 1,” remains in Kyiv and has assured his citizens that he will not leave. He discussed with US officials whether he should move west to a safer location in Lvov, closer to the Polish border. According to a senior Ukrainian official, Zelensky’s security service is ready to move him and members of his cabinet quickly. Until he refuses to go.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenskiy, declined to describe any contingency plans Ukraine is building in case the capital is captured by Russian troops.
“One can only say that Ukraine is preparing for the defense of Kyiv as purposefully as Russia is preparing for an attack on Kyiv,” Podolyak said.
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“This war has become a people’s war for Ukrainians,” he continued. “We must win the war. There are no other options.”
Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the opposition European Solidarity party Volodymyr Ariyev expressed confidence that the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, will be able to continue meeting despite the wartime situation, and noted that many deputies remain in Kyiv.
“In our party, we didn’t discuss any evacuation plan because we don’t want to give up,” Ariyev said. “We are not in this government, but we have weapons, and we will fight the occupiers here, together with the people. This is the only plan we have – no evacuation, nothing.”
However, European diplomats, like their American counterparts, are beginning to prepare for how to support the Ukrainian government if Kyiv falls or the country is completely occupied by Russia. The UN resolution last week condemning the 141-voted invasion is one element of “laying the groundwork” for recognizing the Zelenskiy administration as the legitimate government of Ukraine and keeping it afloat even if it no longer controls the territory, a senior European leader said. diplomat.
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“We haven’t drawn up a plan as such yet, but that would be something we would be ready to start right away,” the diplomat said. “In our experience, it’s good to know that you generally have international support.”
As early as December last year, some U.S. officials saw signs that the Ukrainian military was preparing for possible resistance, even as Zelenskiy downplayed the threat of an invasion.
During an official visit, the Ukrainian Special Operations Commander told House Representatives Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), Rep. Seth Moulton (R-Mas.) and other lawmakers that they are changing training and plan to focus on supporting the armed opposition, relying on insurgent tactics. .
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Ukrainian officials have told lawmakers they are disappointed that the United States has not sent Harpoon missiles to hit Russian ships and Stinger missiles to attack Russian aircraft, Moulton and Waltz said in separate interviews. The United States diverted some military aid to Ukraine it planned to send to Afghanistan, but the package mostly included small arms, ammunition and first aid kits meant to fight the Taliban, not Russia, said Waltz, who served in Afghanistan as a Special Forces officer. .
As the Russian military grapples with logistical problems, including fuel and food shortages, Waltz expects the Ukrainians to repeatedly hit Russian supply lines. To do this, he said, they need a steady supply of weapons and the ability to plant improvised explosive devices.
“These supply lines are going to be very, very vulnerable, and this is where you really literally starve the Russian army.”
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Moulton, who served in Iraq as a Marine officer, said he was in favor of sending the Harpoons and Stingers – the administration decided to send the last weapons, according to a US official and a document obtained by The Washington Post – but that their use would also require training.
“You can’t send them to Ukraine at the last minute and expect some National Guardsman to pick up the Stinger and shoot down the plane,” he said. The continuation of the campaign of resistance will require the continuation of clandestine shipments of small arms, ammunition, explosives and even cold weather equipment.
“Think of things that will be used by saboteurs, not by an army repelling a frontal invasion,” Moulton said.
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Officials remain wary of openly supporting the Ukrainian rebels so as not to drag NATO members into direct conflict with Russia. In Moscow’s eyes, supporting the Zelenskiy government in Poland could constitute an attack by the alliance, some officials have warned.
But NATO’s concerns are unlikely to deter Ukraine’s leaders and citizens.
“I highly doubt that the Ukrainians will not continue their underground resistance campaign even after the Russians take control,” said a senior Western intelligence official.
Moscow “grossly underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist,” the official said. “I am reminded, especially by my Eastern colleagues, of the Ukrainians themselves. The Ukrainians were some of the fiercest fighters… for the Soviets during World War II.” He predicted that resistance would continue for months and possibly years.
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The United States supported and fought successful insurgencies. Veterans of such conflicts say the Ukrainians have so far demonstrated a key ingredient.
“The main thing you need to have is people on the ground who want to fight,” said Jack Devine, a retired senior CIA officer who led the agency’s successful covert arms campaign against the Afghan militants who ousted the Soviet army in the 1980s.
If the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators who met near the border in Belarus come to some kind of agreement, it will likely dampen the momentum for the insurgency and its support, Devine predicts.
Martha Kepe, a senior defense analyst at Rand Corp. who studies resistance movements, says they often change over the course of a war.
“As the occupation progresses and continues for a longer time, what may start out as a more centralized resistance often evolves into smaller resistance groups or divisions. There is nothing wrong with that,” she said. “In fact, smaller groups provide more resilience.”
NATO politicians admire the spirit of the Ukrainian forces, but they also say their ability to resist Russia is not unlimited, especially as ammunition stocks are running low and the Russian military is encircling major cities.
“Russia has more troops than Ukraine,” said a second senior European diplomat. “Ukrainian troops are very brave, but they have been fighting for more than a week.”
Resistance and urban warfare experts said Russian occupying forces would try to pinch supply lines and cut off cities.
Rita Konaeva, director of analysis at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technologies, said Ukraine must prepare its citizens for urban warfare accompanied by massive air and artillery shelling, which Russia will use to try to reduce door-to-door attacks. door fights needed to capture cities.
Konaev said the Ukrainians should also stock up on supplies ahead of time because Russian troops are likely to cut off the power grid and cut off access to water in cities, and that they should create safe zones underground to survive aerial bombardments.
As soon as Russian troops try to enter the cities, she said, the Ukrainians will have an advantage, since they know the area. They can build barriers, destroy bridges to restrict entry into the city, and place snipers on rooftops.
“In urban areas, defense has an advantage,” Konaev said.
European leaders have been trying to figure out what Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept as a potential end point for a defeated Ukraine. Politicians say they don’t have a clear understanding, although the first European diplomat said Putin could try to reduce Ukraine “to a much smaller state.”
Under such a scenario, western Ukraine will remain independent. The rest of the territories will be annexed to Russia, occupied or declared independent states, as the Kremlin has already done with the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
But Russia’s ability to impose such a vision is “highly unlikely,” the diplomat said, given Ukraine’s deep dissatisfaction with the Russian invasion.
“This is a country of 40 million people. [people]”, – said the diplomat. The Kremlin “may try to develop a strategy. But I think that in our strategic calculations, we always forget about one small obstacle, and this is the will of the people. Putin has forgotten how to be elected democratically.”
NATO leaders also say that even if Russia takes Kyiv, it will not end either the resistance or the existence of the Ukrainian state.
“The Russians cannot occupy the whole country and subdue it,” said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks, whose country maintained a diplomatic service in exile for 51 years after it was occupied by the Soviet Union in 1940. Washington never recognized the annexation of the three Baltic states.
“There will be guerrilla warfare, there will be resistance. So even if Kyiv falls, this does not mean the end of the war,” Pabriks said.
Stern reported from Mukachevo, Ukraine. Ellen Nakashima and Paul Sonne contributed to this report.