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Poland’s centrist opposition experienced a wave of jubilant optimism on Monday after historic elections, as an exit poll showed it had a better chance of forming the next government than the ruling far right. However, the country remains in a potentially prolonged period of political uncertainty as the ruling Law and Justice party looks for ways to stay in power.
An opposition victory would mark a sea change in Europe, bringing a bastion of illiberalism allied with Trump Republicans and Hungary’s Viktor Orban back into line with the continent’s core democracies. It would also end the term of a government that has sought to roll back the rule of law, control the free press, flout European laws, impose strict restrictions on abortion and target LGBTQ+ rights.
At a time when Poland’s once staunchly pro-Ukrainian government was beginning to waver in its support, the opposition continued to promise military support for Kiev.
What you should know about the election in Poland, Europe’s most watched election in 2023
Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and head of the European Council who attracted some of the biggest election turnouts in Poland since the restoration of democracy, preemptively declared victory on Sunday.
“We did it! Really! … Poland has won, democracy has won. We have removed them from power!” the opposition leader told his supporters late Sunday
But election officials and members of the ruling Law and Justice party urged Poles to wait for the official count. The new exit poll – by Ipsos Mori, which included a larger sample than the one released late Sunday – showed Law and Justice coming first as expected, but falling well short of the government majority with 36.6 percent of the vote.
The opposition is declaring victory in Poland’s elections while vote counting is still ongoing
Tusk’s civic platform came in second with 31 percent. But with the help of two possible coalition partners, it should win 248 of the 460 seats in parliament – well above the magic number for forming a government: 231. The party is considered the most likely coalition partner for Law and Justice, which the even further right-wing confederation scored in the election poll According to reports, it performed worse than expected and received 6.4 percent of the votes.
The exit poll also suggested a huge voter turnout of 73 percent, the highest in Poland since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The official tally so far appears to be somewhat in line with the election survey. Since 72 percent of the votes had been counted and the liberal strongholds in the cities had not yet been determined, “Law and Justice” received 36.92 percent of the votes, compared to 29.22 percent for the Citizens Platform. The Civic Platform’s two likely coalition partners – the Third Way and the Left Party – got 14.48 percent and 8.30 percent, respectively. The Confederation, which had rejected any intention of forming a coalition with Law and Justice, received 7.24 percent of the vote.
Joachim Brudzinski, campaign manager for Law and Justice, told Polish media that the party still plans to try to form a government and expects incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to receive endorsement from the far-right leader, President Andrzej Duda.
“We won. I will call it a success. Any way you look at it, we won,” Brudzinski told Polish radio. “It seems obvious to me that President Andrzej Duda will entrust this mission to the judiciary.”
Another party official said the government would try to recruit members of an agrarian party to ally with Tusk – a claim that led to the quick dismissal of that party’s spokesman.
Analysts said decoding the results could take until Christmas. “The three pro-EU opposition parties are now the clear favorites to form the next government, but the process could take around two to three months,” Andrius Tursa, consultant for Central and Eastern Europe at Teneo, a global consulting firm, said in a Monday note.
In Poland’s parliamentary system, Duda – a former member and long-time ally of Law and Justice – must choose a prime minister to try to form a government. If that person fails, Parliament would vote on a new prime minister. It remained unclear how Duda would proceed, although he has 30 days to convene a first session of parliament and 14 more to choose a future prime minister.
Following the recent failure of a far-right party in Spain’s elections in July, the suggestion of an even more significant right-wing defeat in Poland illustrated the tectonic and often contradictory political changes underway across the continent. The far right has made dramatic gains in Europe, particularly since the pandemic. But a loss in one of its most important strongholds, Poland, would come amid high inflation and the fallout from the war in Ukraine. It suggested that the far right is facing the same pressures that have pushed incumbents out of traditional political parties. Exit polls showed voters’ deep concerns about abortion laws and the rule of law – but their driving issue was the economy.
Even if the government tries to turn the state media into a mouthpiece, change would come.
Poland faces a crucial choice. Observers say it was not a fair vote.
“It means a big change for Europe,” said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, a Brussels think tank. “If we were to get a government without law and justice, the relationship between Warsaw and Brussels, which has been steadily deteriorating, would change. It also shows that Polish society can make independent decisions, even if the media is controlled by the government.”
Should the opposition win, a well-known champion of European unity – Tusk – would likely replace a government in Brussels that has tried to undermine the bloc’s rule of law standards by politicizing the courts and attempting to silence dissent in the media bring. At a time when Poland’s influence in NATO and Europe has grown due to its proximity to the war in Ukraine, Tusk’s more moderate voice could further elevate Warsaw, giving it closer parity with Paris and Berlin and further shifting the European Union’s center of gravity Eastbound.
“We still have to wait for the final results. “But the advance of the Polish opposition, which has managed to unite the center-right, center and left against conservative populism in power, is a tremendous sign of hope for Poland and its place in Europe,” said French MP Nathalie Loiseau in the European Parliament, wrote on Xformerly known as Twitter.
An opposition victory would also underscore moderates’ ability to rally their base at crucial moments, with Tusk and others portraying the election as the last and best chance to prevent Poland’s descent into autocracy. The exit poll suggested an opposition victory would build on a coalition of younger voters, well-educated urban residents and Poles from the industrialized western half of the country, which has deeper historical ties to the rest of Europe.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of Law and Justice and deputy prime minister of Poland, has called LGBTQ+ rights a “threat” to Catholic Poland. Cities influenced by the far right have declared themselves “LGBTQ+ free zones.” Tusk, meanwhile, has promised to push for civil partnerships for same-sex couples and a transgender law that would make it easier for Poles to legally associate with a different gender. He has also promised to weaken Poland’s near-total ban on abortion.
From late Sunday into Monday, women’s and LGBTQ+ rights advocates celebrated.
“The nightmare ends,” said the gay Polish activist Bart Staszewski said on X. “I am gay, I am Polish and I am proud today. After eight years of hatred against people like me…Poland is BACK on the path of democracy and the rule of law.”
But Tusk – who took a strong anti-migrant stance during the election campaign – also had to manage a host of socially conservative politicians within his core alliance. It remains unclear how much change he could bring to Poland and how quickly.
The result is being observed primarily in Washington, Brussels, Kiev and Moscow, where Poland is seen as central to the West’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland led Europe’s support for Kiev, criticized attempts at dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and equipped Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 tanks and Polish MiG-29 fighters.
But domestic politics have clouded that support. Last month, a dispute over the impact of Ukrainian grain exports on Polish farmers escalated to the point where Prime Minister Morawiecki announced an end to Polish arms supplies. Tusk, meanwhile, has promised Ukraine unyielding support.
“There is no logic in the actions of President Duda, Prime Minister Morawiecki and Chairman Kaczynski regarding Ukraine, apart from increasingly dangerous and disturbing behavior,” Tusk told reporters last month.