The liberal opposition bloc led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s center-right Civic Platform (PO) has achieved the majority needed to change Poland’s course, polls show. According to these polls, the three liberal parties have 248 seats, more than the 231 needed for an absolute majority. Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) won its third consecutive victory in the parliamentary elections held in Poland this Sunday, with 36.8% and 200 MPs, but does not have a sufficient governing majority. If the official results, which will not be announced until Monday or Tuesday, confirm these polls, Poland will confirm the desire for change that has been simmering in a part of society, calling for a turn to the West, to the EU, to the rule of law and democratic health.
The total of PO (31.6%, 183 seats), the center-Christian coalition “Third Way” (13%, 55 MPs) and Izquierda (8.6%, 30 MPs) exceeds the absolute majority of 460 by 17 MPs MPs of the Sejm, the lower seat of the Polish parliament, according to IPSOS exit polls for three television channels. With 6.2% and 12 seats, the extreme right of the Confederación is well below the forecasts of the pre-election polls.
A few minutes after the poll results were published on television, Tusk was jubilant: “I have never been happier in my life. Poland won, democracy won. “We have disempowered them.” Then Kaczynski said: “This is our fourth victory in a parliamentary election, the third in a row.” The PiS leader admitted that he did not have a clear parliamentary majority to form another government. “Days of struggle and tension await us,” he said, “but we must have hope and know that we will implement this project in different ways, regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition.” We will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” he declared.
The long queues on Sunday in front of the emblematic Palace of Culture and Science in the center of Warsaw heralded a major mobilization. Poles have heard the message from parties calling to take part in an election they described as the most important political event since the fall of communism, which began with the 1989 elections. Voter turnout reached 73%, exceeding the record 62.7% achieved during this historic event.
26-year-old Kamil Bonas cast his paper-sized ballot to “achieve a country where human rights, women’s rights, the LGTBI community and the law are respected.” “A supportive and European country,” he concluded. Robert, a 60-year-old consultant, and Luscia, his 81-year-old mother, a retired economist, also voted for the opposition, without revealing who, in the skyscraper that was a gift to Poland from the Soviet Union. “My mother was born during World War II and I grew up under communism; “We both know what a non-democratic country is like,” said the son, who was “extremely optimistic” about the possibility of change.
Room for skepticism
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Despite the change in cycle evident from polls released after the polls closed, there is some skepticism and controversy. Firstly, because the example of Slovakia is very current, where the election polls were wrong and gave the victory to the progressive party. But above all because it is assumed that President Andrzej Duda will entrust the formation of a government to the PiS as the election winner. And there are fears that Kaczynski’s party will try to seduce MPs from other parties, as it has done in the past. But even if he added the far right of the Confederacy, an even more radical, Eurosceptic force than the PiS, he would still need 19 more MPs, making the search for defectors more difficult.
Tusk’s party wants to work from day one to restore the rule of law and rebuild relations with Brussels in order to release the 35.4 billion euros that the Commission withheld due to attacks on the independence of judges. The opposition believes that if its mandate is extended, PiS would continue to shape the state according to its own ideas, in confrontation with Western democratic standards and EU values. During his election campaign, Kaczynski promised to complete the judicial reform that began in 2015, the basis of his biggest conflict with Brussels. This time, he said, they would do it without outside interference.
Relationship with Ukraine
One of the big open questions for the new government that will be formed after these elections is the relationship with Ukraine and the clarification of Poland’s position on its accession to the EU. The tension in the election campaign led to bilateral relations reaching their lowest point after the grain crisis and an exchange of critical comments between the leaders of both countries.
In Poland, which brought humanitarian and military aid to Kiev, the social change driven by the Confederation is evident. There are already many citizens who openly complain about support for refugees and once again look askance at their neighbors with whom they share a complicated history. However, the country retains its anti-Russian sentiment – which distinguishes it from Hungary and Slovakia – and the awareness that a Kremlin victory across the border threatens its own integrity.
A third term in office for PiS with federal support would not be expected to improve Poland’s strained relations with other NATO allies and EU partners, especially Germany. Kaczynski’s party sought Poles’ support and asserted national sovereignty against Berlin, which they accused of exploiting the country and seeking to privatize their companies through Tusk, whom they described as a “German agent.”
The PO leader, who returned to Polish politics in 2021 after chairing the European Council, has a more constructive and pragmatic view of international alliances with a clear pro-European focus. Although he is a figure who provokes strong rejection among PiS voters and also in part of the opposition, he has managed to defeat his party and the entire opposition. “He has charisma and understands the public very well. “He’s a great leader,” says Malgorzata Kaczorowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
During the election campaign, the opposition warned of the danger that Poland would become a new Hungary if the ultra-conservatives won and promised to clean up. If he manages to form a government, he will have to start working in the public media, which works in the service of PiS and large public companies like Orlen. Tusk’s economic policy is liberal and advocates tax cuts and non-interference of the state in the market.
Women’s rights defenders, the LGTBI community, migrants and civil society activists in general are waiting with anticipation for the final election result, which will directly impact their lives in one way or another. Marta Lempart, founder of Strajk Kobiet, the women’s protest movement that emerged in 2016 and gained strength after the constitutional ruling that further tightened abortion laws in 2020, has collected more than 116 complaints and countless threats. This Sunday in Warsaw, she declared that the elections were “a test of the power of change of women,” who voted 43% for PiS in 2019. “We will see more women get involved in politics and bring about change or surrender to a repressive state,” she reflected.
Another activist who adds lawsuits, complaints and intimidating messages is Bartosz Staszewiski for his defense of LGBTI rights and in particular for his fight against the homophobic campaign of 2020, when municipalities across the country declared themselves zones free from the ideology who are LGBTI. The PO does not include adoption by same-sex couples in its program, but on Friday, a few hours before the end of the most toxic election campaign of all time, Staszewiski did not give up hope. “We are proud to fight for our country; “It is not a short journey,” he explained, trusting that he could start a dialogue with a new government other than the PiS.
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