Polls show far-right party set to win most seats in Dutch elections – The Guardian

Netherlands

Geert Wilders’ Islamophobic Party for Freedom predicted it would win 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament

Wed Nov 22, 2023 21:29 GMT

Geert Wilders’ far-right, Islamophobic Party for Freedom (PVV) is on track to become the strongest party in the Dutch parliament, according to exit polls, leading to a major electoral upset whose reverberations will be felt across Europe.

The PVV, whose manifesto includes calls to ban mosques, the Koran and Islamic headscarves in government buildings, was expected to win 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament, more than double the number in the previous vote in 2021.

But it is unclear whether Wilders – whose party has finished second and third in previous elections but has always been excluded from government – can win enough support to form a coalition with a functioning parliamentary majority.

“I call on the parties,” said Wilders in his first reaction after the vote. “The election campaign is over and the voters have spoken. Now we have to look for agreements among ourselves. With a wonderful position of 35 seats, the PVV can no longer be overlooked.”

In his victory speech, he stressed that he was “confident that we can reach an agreement” and added: “I fully understand that we should not take any action that would be unconstitutional.”

Far-right figures from across Europe, including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, France’s Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini in Italy and Germany’s AfD, rushed to congratulate the PVV leader. But the leaders of the three other largest Dutch parties have all said they would not be represented in a PVV-led cabinet.

A left-wing alliance between the Greens and Labor parties (GL/PvdA) led by former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans, which is expected to come second with 25 seats, has said it will not form a coalition with the PVV as a member, as well like the campaign centers. Right-wing MP Pieter Omtzigt’s centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party is in fourth place with 20 seats.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal-conservative Freedom and Democracy Party, whose projected 24 seats would leave them in third place, has said it is open to the idea – but this week ruled out supporting Wilders as prime minister.

“I said I can’t imagine that because Wilders can’t form a majority,” said Rutte’s successor as VVD leader, outgoing Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius. “But it’s his decision now. He has to show whether he can form a majority.”

Wilders, who has been under police protection since 2004 and was convicted of discrimination in 2016 after calling Moroccans “scum” at a campaign rally, is expected to begin questioning other party leaders on Friday.

Although traditionally the party with the most seats will appoint the next prime minister, this is by no means guaranteed. Rutte will remain in the caretaker role until a new government is installed, which may not be until next spring.

The election result, set to usher in the Netherlands’ first new prime minister in 13 years after four successive Rutte-led coalitions, could lead to a “constitutional deadlock”, said Kate Parker of the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Analysts have predicted that coalition negotiations could prove even longer and more complex than after the last election in 2021, when four coalition partners took a record 271 days to negotiate an agreement.

The shape of the new coalition could have a significant impact on the Netherlands’ immigration and climate policies, as well as on relations with its European partners. The country was a founding member of the EU and has a preeminent position in the union.

Rutte’s fourth and final coalition resigned in July after failing to agree on measures to curb migration, one of the main issues of the campaign, along with a housing crisis particularly affecting Dutch youth, the cost of living and voter confidence in the Politician.

Wilders is an outspoken Eurosceptic and has long advocated for the Dutch government to regain control of the country’s borders, reduce immigration, cut payments to the bloc’s budget and veto any further expansion of the EU to insert. He also demanded that the Netherlands stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Wilders has recently tried to tone down his harsher anti-Islam language, apparently hoping to enter a coalition government for the first time, acknowledging that there are “bigger problems” than reducing refugee numbers and that he has some of his Anti-Islam voice could be softened – Muslim positions “on ice”.

He would be “prime minister for everyone” in the Netherlands, he promised during the election campaign, “regardless of religion, origin, gender or whatever,” adding that the cost of living crisis was a bigger priority.

Tom van der Meer, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, described the result as “the biggest change we have ever seen in the Netherlands”. Wilders has experienced a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment and frustration with cross-party coalitions, he told public broadcaster NOS.

The vote took place at polling stations, including at the Anne Frank and Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam. In one of the most fragmented political landscapes in Europe, voters were faced with a choice between 26 parties – 18 of which were able to enter parliament.

At De Duif Church in Amsterdam, Lisa, a 28-year-old architect, said she had decided to vote “tactically” for the Green Left-Labor alliance to prevent Wilders’ far-right PVV from becoming the largest party.

“I realized I had to vote for GreenLeft-Labour because I don’t want PVV to win,” she said. “The environmental and cost of living crises are the most important issues for me. I don’t expect a left-wing government, but it’s the least I can do.”

Lisette, 47, a consultant, said she chose the VVD because of the “long-term stability that the party brings”. “At the international level, I was very happy with the way Rutte presented our country,” she added.

Stijn, 26, a student, voted for the pro-farmer BBB movement. “I know how hard it is for them,” he said. “My parents are farmers and I know firsthand how much they struggle. Other parties are going too far with their climate protection proposals.”

When voting at the Anne Frank Museum, Mirjam Stoker, 52, said she voted for Green Labor because she was “a bit afraid of the PVV”. “The government needs to stay a bit in the middle,” she said.

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