Birth rates at half-mast, rising mortality, declining migration… Despite one of the most outrageously pro-natalist policies in the world, Russia is gradually being emptied of its inhabitants. “A big problem for Vladimir Putin, for whom population equals power,” according to demographer Laurent Chalard.
The observation has been the same for thirty years: Russia’s population is shrinking at breakneck speed. In 1991, when the USSR fell, Russia had a population of 148.2 million. In 2021, the number dropped to 146.1 million, according to the Russian statistical agency (Rosstat). Even more striking, demographers predict that the population will continue to decline, reaching between 130 and 140 million people by 2050.
“Russia pays for the 1990s,” explains Alain Blum, demographer at the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED). “When the USSR fell, the country plunged into a severe demographic crisis. For the first time, the death rate far exceeded the birth rate, leading to a population decline.” At the beginning of the 2000s, Russia had a population of just 143 million.
“Today the population of child-bearing age is that born during this period. It is therefore too small to induce demographic growth,” the researcher continues. Especially since this is related to increased mortality, a consequence of the Covid 19 epidemic.
Birth Policy and Migrations
However, since Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, he has increased his efforts to curb this trend. In addition to modernizing hospitals and improving care, he primarily initiated an important pro-natalist policy. “Russia has emerged as one of the countries with the greatest incitement on this issue,” notes Laurent Chalard, a demographer who specializes in population movements.
“The government in recent years has introduced financial support programs for parents, family allowance systems, allowances for large families …,” he enumerates. “Not to mention the very active propaganda on this subject. Putin himself regularly advocates family values in his public speeches and calls on the population to have children.”
At the same time, he implemented a comprehensive migration policy, opening Russia’s borders to migrant workers, often from Central Asia, facilitating naturalization for Russian speakers, or even distributing Russian passports to residents of neighboring countries. Migrations halted by Covid-19.
“Putin is concerned with this demographic question”
“Putin is concerned with this demographic question,” notes Laurent Chalard. “In his mind, he associates the power of a country with the size of its population. The larger it is, the more powerful the state.”
Evidence of this mindset: In January 2020, the Kremlin chief presented the demographic crisis as “an historic challenge”, noting that “Russia’s fate and its historical prospects depend on how many we will be”.
“Against this background, this population decline is clearly one of the challenges of the war in Ukraine,” say Laurent Chalard and Alain Blum together. “The country is populated by 44 million inhabitants, mostly Slavs, from this former Soviet bloc. For Putin, it’s not just about reclaiming a territory that would rightfully belong to him, it’s also about ‘regaining that population’ integrate it into Russia.”
In its last census, Moscow also included the 2.4 million inhabitants of Donbass, which has been annexed since 2014. The Kremlin has also decided to concentrate its war efforts on the east of the country for a few weeks now, with one goal: to organize referendums there on integration with Russia if possible.
What are the consequences of the war?
But could this ambition to increase the population turn against the top of the Kremlin and, conversely, deepen the demographic crisis since the war in Ukraine has long started?
“If I refer to Ukrainian sources, Russia sent 165,000 troops to Ukraine. That’s nothing compared to the general population. The war casualties will therefore have a very limited impact on Russian demographics,” believes Laurent Chalard. “Unless the situation escalates into a full-scale global conflict and forces Russia to dramatically increase its numbers.”
“On the other hand, this demographic fear may partly explain why Moscow is reluctant to send more soldiers to the front. It recognizes the importance of limiting casualties, particularly among young populations,” the demographer nuanced.
But the war in Ukraine could accentuate another phenomenon: that of brain drain. According to the Financial Times, citing the industry association, around 150,000 people in new technologies have left Russia. Many of them have joined Israel or Turkey, which are stepping up reception efforts in search of these workers. “Again, for Moscow, the demographic impact will be limited because the phenomenon remains marginal. On the other hand, from an economic point of view, in a context already complicated by the sanctions, this can have repercussions,” continues Sucher.
“Confidence in the future plays a key role in the birth rate”
For his part, Alexey Raksha, a Moscow-based Russian demographer, is already predicting a sharp drop in the birth rate in the coming months in response to the war in Ukraine, but more importantly the economic crisis associated with the sanctions. “During economic crises, people are less inclined to have children, which makes sense,” he explains. “Confidence in the future plays a key role in the birth rate.”
“The war will affect births from December,” he predicts. “We will see the effects from 2023 onwards. It’s going to be a bad year for births in Russia and the following year won’t get any better,” he concludes. Forecasts are confirmed by the latest statistics from Rosstat, which reveals a 5% drop in births in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year.
“I think everything will depend on who wins the war,” Nuance on his side Laurent Chalard. In the event of victory, the joy may be accompanied by a birth boom. Losing and getting stuck in an economic crisis would have the opposite effect,” he said. “What is certain is that it puts Putin against the wall. Demographically, he has no choice but to win.”