But control of the Black Sea became an open game again last week when the Resilient Africa, a ship flying the Palau flag but actually Turkish, set sail from Chornomorsk, one of Odessa’s three ports. It brought 3,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat in defiance of Putin’s trade ban. After two days of sailing along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, she arrived safely in Istanbul. “We did it,” the commander announced and a second ship immediately left, the Aroyat, same flag, same property, this time with 18,000 tons of grain. Two more days of fear and on Sunday the Aroyat also reached the Bosphorus. A second humiliation for Moscow.
In July, Moscow canceled the agreement that allowed the export of Ukrainian wheat, among other things, in defiance of Russian control over the cargoes so that no weapons were hidden in the holds. Putin has promised to replace Ukraine’s share of the world market with its own grain. The political goal is to tie down part of the countries without food self-sufficiency and reduce Ukraine’s economic revenues, but the means had to be military: the Black Sea Fleet.
The Western allies provided missiles, but it was the Ukrainians who made do with their Neptune antiships and much cheaper suicide boats. With a fiberglass hull, they move on the surface of the water and are controlled remotely using on-board cameras. They are the water version of the drones that rule the skies. If they crash into the side of a ship, the explosives they are carrying can sink the ship. It happened almost a dozen times.
Other high-profile Ukrainian attacks took place directly in Crimean ports. Last week there was a bomb attack on the naval headquarters in Sevastopol. Natalia Humeniuk of the Southern Ukraine Military Command tells the Courier that “the Russians no longer feel comfortable in the Black Sea and have set up a kind of “inspection area” in the Kerch Strait to form a line of civilian ships behind it,” which are supposed to be hidden .
According to Viktor Berestenko, “Putin will not dare to sink the merchant ships because they fly the flags of countries that have nothing to do with the conflict, and the international response to so many drowned sailors would be dangerous for him.” Andrii Klymenko , director of a trade magazine, is convinced: “Moscow could not afford to anger the Turks who own the two ships that just passed through because it depends too much on Erdogan for commercial triangular relationships.” The same would be true for Chinese ships or ships from other countries friendly countries apply.
So did Putin lose the Battle of the Black Sea? Has the Ukrainian export problem been solved? “Putin will not sink the ships, but he can try to prevent them from loading.” Missile attacks on Odessa port infrastructure will increase, claims Berestenko. These days are just the beginning, Moscow will want to destroy all loading equipment.”