The video was shocking – not only because of what it showed, but also because of what was said.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the outspoken millionaire and head of private military company Wagner, stood before the bloodied corpses of his slain troops in Ukraine and sworn at Russian military leaders, blaming them for the bloodbath.
“You came here as volunteers and died so you could laze around in your redwood offices,” Prigozhin shouted. “You sit in your expensive clubs, your kids enjoy the good life and make videos on YouTube. Anyone who doesn’t give us ammunition will be eaten alive in Hell!”
It was an unsettling sight for Russians, who were accustomed to more than two decades of President Vladimir Putin’s tightly controlled rule – years with no sign of infighting among his top men.
Prigozhin’s video in May and his other rants against the military leadership were met with silence from both Putin and political leaders. Some see Putin’s failure to quell the infighting as a sign of possible shifts in Russia’s political scene, setting the stage for more internal infighting.
Prigozhin’s rift with the military has been ignored by state-controlled television, where most Russians get their news, although it is closely followed by politically active, ultra-patriotic readers and social media viewers who share his contempt for military leaders.
While there are no signs that Putin is losing influence, “there are increasing signs of deep dysfunction, fear, concerns about the war and genuine problems in providing the resources necessary to fight it effectively,” said Nigel Gould-Davies , Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and editor of the Strategic Survey.
Prigozhin’s feud with military leaders dates back years and was brought to light during the fighting for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut led by his mercenaries. It has propelled the 62-year-old Wagner owner, dubbed “Putin’s chef” for his lucrative catering deals in the Kremlin, to the forefront of Russian politics and signaled his growing ambitions.
The story goes on
He sharply criticized Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov as weak and incompetent in mocking remarks full of vulgar language. At one point he even claimed that the army laid mines on the route planned by his fighters and opened fire on them.
With his blunt statements, Prigozhin entered territory only Putin had previously entered: over the years, the Russian leader occasionally broke decency with a blunt remark or an inappropriate joke, while top officials used carefully crafted language.
In a later video, Prigozhin made a statement that some interpreted as a thinly veiled attack on Putin himself. He explained that while his men were dying because the Department of Defense wasn’t supplying ammunition, a “happy grandpa thinks he’s fine,” and then made an obscene reference to that “grandpa.”
The blunt comment caused an uproar on social media and was widely taken as a reference to Putin. Prigozhin later said he spoke about Gerasimov.
“Prigozhin is now sailing much closer to the wind than ever before,” Gould-Davies told The Associated Press.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political commentator, described Prigozhin as “the second most popular man after Putin” and a “symbol of Russia’s military victory to millions of people.”
Putin needs Prigozhin’s mercenaries at a time when the regular military is still recovering from setbacks at the start of the invasion. The position of Wagner chief was strengthened after the private army captured Bakhmut last month in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war. She relied on tens of thousands of convicts who were promised pardon if they survived the fighting for six months.
“Putin dominates the system, but he still depends on a small number of big people to implement his will and provide him with resources to carry out his orders, including waging war,” Gould-Davies told the AP.
While Putin may persist in dividing various factions and then stepping in to “decide who wins and who loses, who’s up and who’s down,” this process undermines the government’s authority in wartime, Gould-Davies said.
“That may be a way of keeping the political system going, but it’s certainly not the way to wage war because if your military forces are divided and don’t work together effectively, your military operations will suffer accordingly, and that it is.” “Exactly what’s happening here,” he said.
Mark Galeotti, a London-based expert on Russian politics and security, noted that even though Ukraine is in the early stages of its long-awaited counteroffensive, power struggles continue – “a point where everyone should really have a single common goal. “
In a recent podcast, he speculated that Putin’s failure to resolve political disputes could be due to a lack of interest, a focus on other issues, or, more likely, a reluctance to take sides.
“It also raises questions about his overall ability to do his job,” Galeotti said. “That’s the one thing, the only job he can’t really outsource, and he’s not even trying.”
The military leaders’ lack of response to Prigozhin’s insults seemed to indicate they were unsure whether Putin was on their side.
St. Petersburg regional governor Alexander Beglov was another of Prigozhin’s current targets, after the longstanding conflict stemmed from Beglov’s unwillingness to give lucrative contracts to Prigozhin’s company. Just like the military leaders, Beglov did not react.
Prigozhin has allied himself with other aggressive officials, including reportedly Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard of Putin who is seen by many as a potential successor. The Wagner boss has also been attracted to Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed regional leader of Chechnya, for some time. While denouncing most of the senior military leaders, Prigozhin spoke approvingly of General Sergei Surovikin, who led Russian forces in Ukraine for several months before Putin put Gerasimov in charge of overseeing the operations.
But some of those alliances have been shaky.
While initially praising Prigozhin and supporting some of his criticisms of the military leaders, Kadyrov later changed course and criticized him for his defeatist tone. Kadyrov’s lieutenants went further and criticized Wagner’s efforts in Bakhmut after Prigozhin made disparaging remarks about Chechen fighters in Ukraine. Kadyrov’s right-hand man, Magomed Daudov, bluntly said that Prigozhin would have been executed for such statements in World War II.
Prigozhin quickly backed down, saying he was only expressing concern about the Russian operations.
Prigozhin has dodged questions about his ambitions, but in a move that reflects his desire to gain political influence, he recently toured Russia and continued a flurry of stormy commentary.
“There are signs that he aspires to a political future,” Gould-Davies observed.
While Prigozhin owes his position and wealth to Putin, he is playing the role of an outsider in his criticism of some leaders and his attempt to appeal to the masses in the face of backlash in Ukraine, said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment.
“He poses as an enemy of the elites, despite being a product of Putin’s system, the embodiment of his regime and his state treaties,” Kolesnikov said. “Prigozhin plays an independent politician, raising the stakes and testing the limits of the system. But it is technically and physically possible only as long as Putin finds him useful and amused by his antics.”
To show his support for the military, Putin backed the Defense Ministry’s demand that all private companies sign contracts with the military — something Prigozhin has opposed.
And in another sign that Putin’s government may finally be downsizing Prigozhin, Kremlin-affiliated messaging app channels circulated photos of his celebrating children, including a daughter in Dubai, in apparent retaliation for Prigozhin’s attacks on the defense minister’s daughter.
Prigozhin called for a full-scale war with Ukraine, including full-scale nationwide mobilization and the imposition of martial law in Russia — calls welcomed by some hawks.
But Kolesnikov points out that the vast majority of Russians, who are largely apathetic or unwilling to make major sacrifices, may be frightened and appalled by this message.
He warns against overestimating Prigozhin’s influence and political prospects and underestimating Putin’s authority.
“A finger movement of the commander-in-chief is enough to make the Wagner boss disappear,” said Kolesnikov.
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Associated Press writer Danica Kirka from London contributed.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war