A Himars system fires missiles during military exercises in Morocco June 30, 2022 (AFP/FADEL SENNA)
US precision missiles have given Ukraine’s military a boost since their delivery in June, shifting the balance of power on the battlefield, which could prompt Moscow to slow its offensive, experts say.
Since mid-June, Ukraine has used the Himar precision artillery system to destroy more than 20 key Russian ammunition depots and command posts that were previously too far from the front line for conventional projectiles to reach.
Videos online show spectacular explosions at ammunition dumps like Luhansk and Nova Kahovka, a testament to the accuracy of US shells.
“The occupiers have already had good experiences with modern artillery. They will not have a secure rear base on our country,” said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But even these new weapons are no silver bullet, experts warn, pointing out that more weapons and radar systems are needed to defeat the Russians.
For Christopher Dougherty, a military analyst at the Washington-based think tank Center for New American Security, the results of the Himar missile launchers did not disappoint.
But, he says, “it doesn’t bother the situation per se.”
– A gain in precision –
A Himars rocket launcher in Morocco on June 21, 2022 (AFP/FADEL SENNA)
The Himars, for “M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System”, are multiple rocket launchers mounted on light tanks and are therefore mobile, firing GPS-guided munitions at a range of about 80 kilometers.
Unlike the artillery used by both sides in this war so far, they can hit a precise target, so they can be used sparingly and reliably.
The Ukrainian army now has 12 launchers, which can be loaded with six projectiles at a time, and hundreds of ammunition.
In addition to their accuracy, these missiles fly fast and low enough to prevent Russian air defenses from easily intercepting them. And the high mobility of launchers makes it difficult to aim.
The Himars system is “changing the face of fighting in Ukraine. It allows the Ukrainians to attack the Russians from a greater distance and in areas previously inaccessible to them due to Russian anti-aircraft defenses,” tweeted Mick Ryan, a former Australian general.
Credit goes not only to Himars: since June, Ukraine has been receiving powerful artillery pieces from other allies, such as the French Caesar cannon, and the United States announced last week that it would supply a thousand more precision shells.
According to Mick Ryan, Ukraine uses these weapons against the Russian army’s weak point: its tendency to store its ammunition near railroad depots and in cities fairly close to the front lines.
Although increasing the risk of civilian casualties, the precision of these systems helps limit the risks.
The Russians’ lack of preparation for the arrival of these weapons, which was “no secret”, is surprising, recalls Christopher Dougherty. “Once again, the Russians are very slow to adapt to frankly quite obvious problems on the battlefield,” he said.
– A longer range? –
The Russian army will eventually redistribute its ammunition and move it away from the front lines, analysts believe, but that will complicate its logistics.
“Every time we scatter something, it takes more trucks to deliver the same amount (of material) to those in need,” explains Christopher Dougherty. However, Russian military trucks have become scarce since the beginning of the war.
According to Phillips O’Brien, a professor at Scotland’s University of Saint Andrews, the Himars are part of a larger strategy aimed at crippling Russian logistics and repelling its air defenses.
Doing so would further expose front-line artillery, the mainstay of Moscow’s Donbass offensive, to Ukrainian air and ground forces.
At the same time, Kyiv is trying to persuade Washington to supply it with ATACMS missiles compatible with Himars launchers and with a range of 300 kilometers.
Fedir Venislavskyi, a Ukrainian official, on Wednesday confirmed “negotiations at all levels with US officials on the need to provide us with longer-range Himar ammunition.”
The White House is refusing to do so for the time being, concerned about a possible use to attack targets on Russian territory, which the American government says could draw the United States and NATO to war.
According to Christopher Dougherty, the Pentagon has few ATACMS in stock anyway.
What Ukraine really needs besides the Himars, Phillips O’Brien adds, is more protection from Russian airstrikes.
“Supplying Ukraine with better and more anti-aircraft equipment should be a priority as well as supplying it with longer-range weapons,” he tweeted.