“The surprise would be that Jair Bolsonaro acknowledges his defeat without complaining,” estimated Frédéric Louault, professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels and specialist in Brazil, on Sunday 2 October on franceinfo. The outgoing president has given many indications that he may not recognize the results if the president is defeated, noting in particular the risk of “cheating”. With the first round of the Brazilian presidential election taking place this Sunday, Lula is the big favorite, attributed with 51-52% of the vote, according to the latest polls. The election campaign was also “marked by violence” and “many voters are preparing to go to the polls with a little fear in their stomachs, with fear of aggression”, Frédéric Louault, author of the book “Le Brésil”, specifies the endless creation “, published by Tallandier.
franceinfo: Are these two visions of Brazil and even of the world that are colliding in this first round of presidential elections?
Frederic Louault: Yes, these are two very opposite social models. Former President Lula speaks of “democracy versus barbarism” and when he addresses the opposing camp he invokes “barbarism”. At the side of the currently outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, when he speaks of his opponent, he invokes the return of the “devil to power”. This election is very tense. The last presidential debates, marked by very harsh attacks between the various candidates, have shown this clearly.
Is there a wave of rejection against outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro as Lula is clearly in the lead according to recent polls?
The outgoing president has a disapproval of over 50%. This makes it very difficult for him to pursue his re-election project. It is a refusal closely linked in particular to his management of the health crisis, but also to public affairs in general, whose style is marked by strong polarization and incessant provocations, tiring a large part of the Brazilian people. At the end of the health crisis, Jair Bolsonaro was also accused of “crimes against humanity” by his own Congress, and his opponents used this to weaken him.
But the most important issues right now are more socio-economic issues with questions about redistribution programs and economic recovery. For former President Lula, it is about protecting democracy, restoring the democratic framework, restoring Brazil’s image on the international stage.
A final issue that counts in favor of outgoing President Jair Bolsonero is the issue of family values and religion. He plays it a lot to discredit his opponent. Finally, Jair Bolsonaro also alludes to the issue of corruption by linking former President Lula’s Labor Party to major corruption scandals in an attempt to weaken it. A tense campaign.
Is this a testament to a country, Brazil, that is particularly divided today?
Today the country is fragmented, as are other countries in the region. What is worrying in Brazil is that the election campaign is marked by violence and many voters are now preparing to go to the polls with a little fear in their stomachs, for fear of attacks, violent politics.
The election is less celebratory than usual and there are also major concerns about the outcome if Jair Bolsonaro is not elected he will acknowledge his electoral defeat. In fact, Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly criticized electronic voting. What consequences can this have, especially in the event of a loss in the first round tonight if Lula gets more than 50% of the vote. That Lula gets more than 50% of the vote is a pretty credible hypothesis as he sits between 51% and 52% of the vote in recent polls.
Of course, Jair Bolsonaro brushed off the polls by saying that the polls themselves are part of a grand scam scheme. But based on this scenario, where Lula would win the election on the first ballot, Jair Bolsonaro would contest the results, as he has announced on numerous occasions. And when we speak to his voter bases, we find that this is a message that resonates a lot, and many of Jair Bolsonaro’s voters that we meet here tell us that there is cheating if he doesn’t make it in the first round is chosen and therefore it must inevitably be expected that fraud will be reported. The surprise would be that Jair Bolsonaro acknowledges his defeat without complaint.