Donald Trump's victory against Nikki Haley in New Hampshire yesterday confirms, if necessary, that he will be elected as the Republican presidential candidate. But it does not provide a clear answer to a question that could determine his election as president of the United States.
• Also read: TO SEE | New Hampshire primaries: Trump wants more surveillance at the Canada-US border
A significant number of Republicans and independents will not vote for him in November, preferring to vote for Biden or a third-party candidate. Others will choose to abstain.
Let's look at what the polls say to see what the future holds.
Even before his victory in Iowa, a New York Times poll found that Trump had less support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) than Biden had among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91%).
According to the website Axios, a record 49% of Americans said they were politically independent in the spring of 2023. And among independent voters, a poll suggests Trump is losing support. Biden would lead Trump 50% to 38%.
According to Gallup, independents are now the dominant voting bloc in the United States. The share of Americans who identify as Democrats fell to 27%, the lowest on record. Since regular elections began in 1991, Democrats have been ahead most of the time.
- Listen to the Lester Durocher meeting with blogger Normand Lester from the Journal de Montréal QUB :
Everyone, not Trump
The media focuses its attention on Trump's cult followers, the MAGA cultists, but there are also Never-Trumpers in the Republican Party who Trump calls RINOs (“Republicans in Name Only”).
Another poll found that 43% of Nikki Haley's supporters in Iowa said they would vote for Biden over Trump in the presidential election. Republicans are leaving the party, outraged by Trump's positions and statements in which he says he wants to lead an authoritarian government made up entirely of Trumpists as officials.
Nothing has been won for Biden
Biden voters will vote for him because there is nothing better. He faces the disillusionment of a portion of Democratic voters who are threatening to vote for a third-party candidate in November (37%) or stay home. He has angered some supporters by, among other things, his unconditional support for Israel in Gaza. Biden's approval rating is just 33%, worse than Trump's lowest rating as president (36%). The lowest figure since George Bush from 2006 to 2008.
Only 31% of women approve of Biden's job in the White House, while 57% of them voted for him in 2020. But there is one area in which Biden leads Trump by 15 points: honesty and trustworthiness.
When it comes to Trump and Biden's mental ability, voters expect it to be declining for both men. Trump's score is down seven points compared to last May, while Biden's score is down four points.
Trump is still prancing toward the presidency. But more and more Americans just seem to be growing tired of this character's antics and the chaos he wreaks.
It will be interesting to see the results of next month's Republican primary in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley was governor.
The presidential election in November will be very close. And Trump is already warning that he and his supporters will not accept defeat.