Abdel Fattah al-Sissi is the big favorite in the presidential election from December 10th to 12th. With repression against all dissent and despite an unconvincing economic and security record, the former marshal could remain in power until 2030 after ten years in office, after a vote that many see as a foregone conclusion.
More than ten years after succeeding Islamist Mohamed Morsi – Egypt’s first head of state elected by universal suffrage – Abdel Fattah al-Sissi still rules Egypt with an iron fist.
Whether among his opponents or his supporters, there is little doubt about his victory in the presidential election that will take place from December 10th to 12th, since he already won in the two previous elections in 2014 and 2018 with more than 96% of the votes . Agree…
Another victory would extend the ex-marshal’s term until 2030. The Egyptian leader changed the constitution in 2019 to allow him to present himself to voters for a third time, and on that occasion extended the presidential mandate from four to six years.
Abdel Fattah al-Sissi was born in Cairo in November 1954 and grew up in a conservative environment in a family with fourteen children. The merchant’s son decided early on to pursue a military career, a guarantee of social advancement in a country controlled by the army. He was long unknown to the general public, but he rose to prominence in 2012 when he became chief of staff of the Egyptian army and minister of defense.
This surprise promotion was decided in June 2012 by Mohammed Morsi, the first Egyptian head of state elected by universal suffrage, following the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak more than a year earlier. At the time, the press portrayed Abdel Fattah al-Sissi as a devout Muslim compatible with the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement from which President Morsi came, particularly because of his family ties to Abbas al-Sissi, a disciple of Hassan al-Sissi. Banna, the founder of the Islamist Brotherhood.
But his rapid rise within the army could not have happened if this possible proximity to the movement most closely monitored by the Mubarak regime had raised even the slightest doubt.
Photo released by the Egyptian Presidency showing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi (right) meeting with Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sissi (left) at the Presidential Palace in Cairo, August 13, 2012. © Egyptian Presidency, AFP
Abdel Fattah al-Sissi was partly trained in the United Kingdom and the United States and was once commander of the northern military zone before taking charge of military intelligence. He quickly established himself as the country’s strongman. In early July 2013, a day after massive demonstrations in which millions of Egyptians gathered across the country to demand Mohamed Morsi’s resignation, he issued an ultimatum to the president and political leaders. He calls on them to “meet the demands of the people” without explicitly calling for Mohamed Morsi’s resignation.
The armed forces that were already responsible for the post-Mubarak transition are emerging from the shadows to impose their roadmap and close the revolutionary bracket of 2011 and the Morsi episode.
The Islamist president was immediately fired, then arrested and thrown in prison – he died in court after an illness in 2019 – while Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations were crushed in a bloodbath that Human Rights Watch called at the time a “likely crime against humanity.”
Modest and deft with his admirers, wary and wary of his critics, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi can now abandon the military uniform and medals and instead wear the presidential suit and tie that he de facto wears.
For Egyptians hostile to the political Islam embodied by the Brotherhood, he saved the country from the clutches of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Total repression
Facade pluralism, muzzled public debates, harassed opponents, judiciary under command, gagged independent press… The liberal and secular opposition, as well as local and international NGOs, accuse it of wanting to restore the old order after an ongoing vote in 2014, according to them Since he took office, repression has “reached unprecedented levels.”
Most recently, in a report published on October 2, six international and Egyptian human rights organizations denounced the “massive and systematic use of torture by the authorities” in Egypt – which they say “constitutes a crime against humanity under international law.”
In parallel with the repressive stranglehold on the political sphere, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi published a series of pharaonic works in which he praised the greatness of Egypt in order to flatter the nationalist sentiments of his compatriots.
In a sign of a certain “Sissimania” at the time when he was defense minister, T-shirts bearing the image of Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi were displayed in Tahrir Square in Cairo in January 2014. © Amr Nabil, AP (Archive)
He ordered the modernization of the country’s road and electrical infrastructure and the construction of a new administrative capital less than 50 kilometers from Cairo, ironically nicknamed “Sissi City” in Egypt. A project that should be completed in 2020 but is still in its first phase.
In August 2015, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi ceremoniously opened work on the expansion of the Suez Canal, another flagship project built as a symbol of the “new Egypt”. The guest of honor at the ceremony is French President François Hollande. The project, which cost Egypt around 7.3 billion euros, was completed this time as planned in less than a year.
This new Suez Canal brought the state record revenue of around 8.6 billion euros in the 2022-2023 financial year, promising Egyptians prosperity and security.
Promises that are difficult to keep in a country suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis and at risk of default on its external debt.
The tourism sector, a mainstay of the country’s economy, has been hit by the war in Ukraine and is at half-mast. After suffering from post-Mubarak political instability and the pandemic, it experienced a sharp decline in the number of Russian and Ukrainian tourists, who made up 35% to 40% of clientele each year, according to local data. Another consequence of the conflict that is weighing on the country’s economy: the increase in the price of wheat, of which Egypt is the main importer worldwide and which comes mainly from Russia and Ukraine.
Ten years after taking power, Egypt and its 105 million residents, who receive financial support from Saudi Arabia, remain mired in poverty.
A still important ally for the Westerners
The fact is that the former head of military intelligence is seen at the international level as a guarantor of stability and regional security. People in the West ignore his human rights violations and, as realpolitik demands, view him as an essential ally in a chaotic Middle East.
This is all the more true as the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has reshuffled the cards since the terrorist attacks of October 7th. The Hamas hostages released in Gaza during the ceasefire week were headed for Egypt. Humanitarian aid also reaches the Palestinian coastal strip via the Rafah border crossing, which is under Egyptian control.
Back in 2014, Abdel Fattah pragmatically turned his back on al-Sissi when Westerners protested against his coup to seize power. The US and the Europeans congratulated him only two days after his more than triumphant election was announced, not without insisting at the time on the need to respect human rights as quickly as possible.
President Vladimir Putin and his counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, photographed in Sochi in 2015. Alexei Druzhinin, AFP
In response, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, who was supported by the Gulf monarchies led by Saudi Arabia when he came to power, has shown close proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In November 2014, a month after freezing American economic and military aid to Cairo – which the Obama administration justified with “the lack of progress on human rights in Egypt” – the Kremlin announced that it would deliver anti-aircraft systems to Egypt and discussed the supply of aircraft and helicopters to the army.
As an outstanding strategist, the ex-marshal knows that the West cannot for long turn its back on the most populous Arab country, which is both a strategic mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and an important ally in the fight against terrorism.
In fact, with the coming to power of Donald Trump in 2016, the jihadist threat and the geostrategic interests of the great powers finally changed the positions of everyone, especially the United States. “I want everyone to know that it is us.” He is clearly behind President Sissi and has done a fantastic job in a very difficult environment,” said the American billionaire during Abdel Fattah al-Sissi’s first visit to Washington.
In October 2017, during an official visit to France, Emmanuel Macron stated that he did not want to give the Egyptian president “lessons” about respecting human rights.
French President Emmanuel Macron greets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi at the Elysee in Paris, July 22, 2022. © Portal, Pascal Rossignol
“President Sissi faces a challenge: the stability of his country, the fight against terrorist movements, against violent religious fundamentalism,” explains the French president in his first meeting with his Egyptian counterpart since his election. “This is the context in which he must govern, we cannot ignore him.”
According to parliament, Egypt imported French weapons worth 7.7 billion euros between 2010 and 2019. In 2015, it became the first foreign country to buy Rafales from France, ordering 24 fighter jets.
Sinai, a security stone in the boots from Sissy
Like each of his predecessors in the army, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi is obsessed with acquiring modern weapons and securing his borders. Especially since its immediate neighborhood – Libya, Sudan, Israel and the Gaza Strip – are all affected by an ongoing conflict or a chaotic internal situation.
On the internal security front, Egypt continues to face a jihadist insurgency in Sinai, the peninsula in the country’s northeast. A persistent threat that the opposition believes is being used by those in power to limit public freedoms.
In 2018, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi launched a major “anti-terrorism” operation in the area, which is home to radical cells, some of which have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group. In vain, Sinai continues to be a security problem for Cairo. And another broken promise for Abdel Fattah al-Sissi.