The young man twirls his French flag, which he received at the rally, and waits at the Paris Iena metro station. The carriages were already full on the last train – with passengers who, like him, attended the event organized by the extremist right-wing presidential candidate Eric Zemmour. When asked about it, he smiles as if inspired. “Did you see that? It was amazing to feel that emotion,” he says, eyes twinkling. Nothing about Zemmour is right-wing extremist. “Right, yes, but what’s the point of saying we don’t let more foreigners in? France can no longer welcome the world’s poor.”
At Zemmour’s biggest rally in Paris, much of the audience was middle-class. The young age of several supporters, who applauded the candidate like a rock star, was also noticeable. Previously, he was a journalist and bestselling author with titles such as “The French Suicide.” His main message: France is on the brink. Firstly, foreigners and secondly, elites are to blame. And its representative par excellence is President Emmanuel Macron, a former elite university student and former banker. “Macron, assassin!” shouted the crowd. Zemmour did not intervene. He later said he didn’t hear the calls.
Crises as “fertile ground”
The 63-year-old is the only newcomer to run in Sunday’s election. The son of a French Algerian Jew, who returned to France after Algeria gained independence, was repeatedly convicted of hate speech for his tirades against Muslims and immigrants. He sounds more radical than right-wing populist Marine Le Pen, but his programs are similar. Both call for freezing immigration and reducing the social rights of foreigners. While Le Pen can currently count on up to 23 percent, Zemmour is up to 11 percent ahead of conservative Valerie Pecresse and behind left-wing populist Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is expected to reach a maximum of 17 percent.
Together, Le Pen and Zemmour reach over 30%. If you add the votes in Melenchon to that, more than half of the people in France lean towards the populists, says Eric Decouty, author of the book They Want to Kill Democracy. Why is that? “We are in such a complex world that any simple explanation is taken as a relief,” says Decouty. “Populism is based on the rejection of a hypothetical ‘system’ by the media, politicians, scientists.” Social and economic crises are “fertile ground” for this.
Left populist Jean-Luc Melenchon is currently in third place.
– © afp / Clement Mahoudeau
And there have been some of those in recent years. Months of “yellow vests” protests were followed by massive resistance to Macron’s planned pension reform and, ultimately, anti-corona measures. In France, where the president holds a strong position of power over parliament and the opposition, much of the fighting is taking to the streets.
The polls have long been evidence of a great distrust of the media and politics. “Nearly nine out of ten French people are convinced that politicians make decisions that go against the interests of citizens,” says political consultant Mathieu Souquiere. “The elites against the people, that’s not just a slogan, it’s a deeply rooted idea.”
Old parties are in the shadows
A chasm is opening – populists are taking advantage of this, while traditional traditional parties have lost their former status. You could miss the second year in a row. Polls predict two percent for socialist Anne Hidalgo. It does not meet its demands, for example, for salary increases for teachers. Republicans are also caught between the right-wing extremists and Macron. By hunting down heavyweights from the once-great parties, the president has permanently weakened them — but not by the right margin as he had promised. On the contrary. Playing against Le Pen or Zemmour increases your chances. The 44-year-old man, who has about 27%, also benefits from left-field and green-field fragmentation as well as right-field fragmentation.
The desire of many leftists for a candidate for unity has recently brought Jean-Luc Melenchon to the forefront. His promises include a higher minimum wage, retirement at age 60 and France’s departure from NATO. The 70-year-old is considered a charismatic tribune of the people. As with Zemmour, his biggest rally in Paris turned into something of a folk festival. “He wants to give power back to the citizens, for example with referendums,” says one young man. For him, Melenchon is not a populist, but the concrete hope for a new system. This is what links him and the Zemmour supporter to the French flag.