Will Brazil put an end to populism? Brazilians are expected to go to the election of their new president on Sunday, October 2nd. Twelve candidates are in the running, including outgoing Jair Bolsonaro, who is hoping for a new four-year term. The far-right candidate faces an emblematic figure of the left who is making a comeback in politics: former head of state Lula da Silva.
The very popular left-wing candidate has every chance, especially after Jair Bolsonaro’s mandate is seen as disastrous. But are the elections decided in advance? Franceinfo takes stock of this presidential election, which promises to be eventful.
Who are the candidates?
Brazil has to choose between 12 candidates in the first round of the presidential election. Only four of them have more than 1% of voting intentions in the polls, including Jair Bolsonaro, the ultra-conservative outgoing president known for his polemical and violent remarks, who was surprisingly elected in 2018, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula . The left of the Workers’ Party (PT), who was President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is celebrated by some voters for lifting a large part of the population out of poverty. He was jailed for corruption in 2018 before being acquitted by the judiciary. The two men, with radically opposite political agendas, should qualify for the second round, barring a major surprise, according to opinion polls. Lula is credited with around 47% of the voting intentions and Jair Bolsonaro 33%.
Ciro Gomes, former Lula minister and representative of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), is also in the running but for the moment seems unable to oust his mentor, who tops the polls at 8%. “He never managed to win back Lula’s base, his political space is very small,” explains Frédéric Louault, co-director of the Center for the Study of the Americas at the Free University of Brussels. Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) is credited with 4% of voting intentions.
Who are the favourites?
Barring a last-minute surprise, like in 2018, Lula is the big favorite in this election. According to Juliano Cortinhas, Professor of International Relations at the University of Brasilia, he owes his popularity to the memory he left for his fellow citizens. “Many remember his previous government, which reduced inequality and gave Brazilians opportunities. He already has a record that he can rely on,” he said.
Brazil (presidential election), poll of ideas:
Lula (PT, center-left): 49% (+3)
Bolsonaro (PL, right): 39% (+1)
Gomes (PDT, centre-left): 6% (-4)
…(+/- compared to August 19-24, 2022)
Field work: 23.-28. Sep 2022
Sample size: 1,500#Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Eleicoes2022 pic.twitter.com/W47cU9Uz8a— America Votes (@AmericaElige) 09/29/2022
For Frédéric Louault, the election is not over yet: “As we saw in 2018, there can still be surprises. Jair Bolsonaro came out of nowhere. He’s going up a little, especially since Lula isn’t as vehement as she was in previous campaigns, he’s extinct”. Juliano Cortinhas is more confident the left can win in the second round scheduled for October 30. “Even though Lula lost some ground in the polls, I think he will benefit greatly from the useful voice,” he predicts.
How is Lula’s return after his legal setbacks being perceived?
A large part of the population welcomes Lula’s candidacy, as evidenced by his lead in opinion polls. “Lula left Brazilians with memories of a golden decade. His successor, Dilma Roussef, will be held responsible for the economic crisis that followed her mandates,” stresses Frédéric Louault.
However, a section of the electorate strongly opposes Lula, particularly because of the numerous cases of corruption affecting his party. “The rejection of the PT became very strong at the time of Dilma Roussef’s dismissal, notes Frédéric Louault. This led to an anti-Lula front, and Jair Bolsonaro instrumentalized this opposition to the left by simplifying it to the extreme and in a very violent way.” Result: Brazilian society is divided, “like the country’s soccer opponents”.
Why is Bolsonaro so high in the polls despite his record?
This popularity comes as no surprise, since “his radicalized evangelical base continues to support him,” explains Carolina Botelho, a political scientist and researcher at the Election Studies Laboratory in Rio. “His base is very attached to his re-election and willing to do anything, including flouting democracy,” said Frédéric Louault. All of this is fueled by very strong ideological divisions, particularly conflicting visions of the family.”
However, many observers consider the record of the ultra-conservative President to be “catastrophic”. In his campaign against “left-wing ideology,” Jair Bolsonaro has led “a mandate to destroy what has been built since the return of democracy,” estimates Gaspard Estrada, Latin America specialist at Sciences Po, with AFP Increase in deforestation in the Amazon. His management of the Covid-19 pandemic, an illness he had dubbed the “flu,” resulted in more than 680,000 deaths and a complete embolism of the healthcare system.
On economic issues, political scientist Frédéric Louault underlines the “inconsistency” of Jair Bolsonaro’s mandate, which has evolved “from a neoliberal state” to “a redistributive state during the pandemic”. A policy that “increased inequalities in Brazil, which has been in recession for ten years, and has made Brazilians poorer than they were five years ago,” he adds.
What issues does this campaign focus on?
The debates mainly focus on the daily life of Brazilians. “It’s about the economic situation, inflation, unemployment and the death toll during the Covid 19 pandemic,” says political scientist Carolina Botelho. “Brazil’s economic health has deteriorated sharply over the past decade and the situation has not improved despite promises made by Jair Bolsonaro when he was elected in 2018,” added Frédéric Louault. A record that pushes the outgoing president to fight mainly against the left and to rant against his opponents to the utmost.
Respect for democracy is also at the center of the debates, after Jair Bolsonaro constantly attacked the various Brazilian counter-powers for four years. Lula even made it one of the axes of his campaign “with the question of reconciliation among Brazilians,” specifies Frédéric Louault.
What is the voting method?
As in France, Brazil’s president is elected in two rounds by unanimous majority. If a candidate receives an absolute majority of votes in the first ballot, he is elected. If no one gets more than 50% of the votes, the top two finishers face off in the second round. The person with the most votes is elected for four years.
To decide between them, the Brazilians vote electronically. An electoral system that has been criticized for years by Jair Bolsonaro, who insists it allows the results to be tampered with. Already in the 2018 elections, which he won with 55 percent of the votes, the far-right candidate had denounced “fraud” without evidence and thus ensured that he could have been elected in the first ballot.
However, the NGO Freedom House, which assesses the degree of democracy in the countries, assures that “research has shown that the introduction in 1996 of the electronic voting system, overseen by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), significantly reduced voter fraud”. . She considers Brazil a “free” country and gives it a score of 73/100. “Brazilian electoral system is very secure,” confirms international relations expert Juliano Cortinhas.
Could Jair Bolsonaro refuse to acknowledge a possible defeat?
The question was put to the outgoing president several times by journalists without receiving a clear answer. As the American medium Bloomberg explains, Jair Bolsonaro declared in August that he would respect the results “if the elections (are) clean and transparent”. “A few months ago he even said that he only saw three possible outcomes in the elections: re-election, imprisonment or death. This shows that defeat is not part of his vocabulary,” analyzes Frédéric Louault, who points to a risk of “electoral delegitimization”.
A possibility that worries observers. “I’m afraid that will force his violent supporters onto the streets. The unrest could last for days or weeks, and the army could even be forced to intervene,” fears Juliano Cortinhas. A scenario that could also occur if Jair Bolsonaro acknowledges a possible defeat, judges Frédéric Louault, who fears a scenario similar to the attack on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump in the USA on January 6, 2021.
What can be expected from the parallel parliamentary elections?
Several elections will take place on October 2nd. So Brazil needs to renew a third of its senators and all of its deputies. The next legislature could also be as fragmented as the previous one, with no party in the majority.
“There will be a very fragmented Chamber of Deputies and it could block everything. This is a problem for Lula because even if he has experience and knows how to navigate between the different institutions, he risks disappointing people and not being able to do everything.”
Frederic Louault, political scientist
at franceinfo
It remains to know the profile of the newly elected. Notably, according to the Guardian, a record number of Aboriginal candidates are running. Can the traditional parties make up ground? “Probably not,” says Frédéric Louault, who marvels at the ability of Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters, who are often newcomers to politics, to be re-elected. “I think we will have fewer anti-democratic mandate holders this time,” said Carolina Botelho.
I didn’t have time to read everything, can you give me a summary?
Brazilians will be called to the first round of presidential elections on October 2nd. Twelve candidates are in the running, but only two of them can qualify for the second round, according to opinion polls: Lula, the former left-wing president, and Jair Bolsonaro, the outgoing extreme president. The election campaign was very much focused on unemployment and inflation as the country descended into crisis related to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine.
Lula, the polls’ big favorite to return to power, is leading a tentative campaign on Brazilian reunification and economic recovery. Despite a reportedly disastrous record and numerous attacks on democracy, Jair Bolsonaro enjoys the unwavering support of some of the country’s evangelists who have backed his ultra-conservative policies. The outgoing president has also hinted that he might not recognize the results in the event of defeat, worrying observers who fear a conflagration should the event occur. General elections are held on the same day and could result in a divided parliament, as in a very polarized country, further complicating the future president’s job.