In the end it wasn’t the Rubicon crossing but the U-turn on the M4. At the end of a crazy day full of unbridled speculation, coup d’etat, civil war… fueled by historical references and insults more from the Goodfellas than from the Carrère d’Encausse, it all ended with a sword cut in the water… For Now.
Because only one thing is certain: the next few days and weeks will have many surprises in store. What the June 24 Wagner adventure has taught those who still doubted is that the Ukraine conflict marks the beginning of a long period of unrest that will rock Russia and the European world. And all scenarios become possible, from an even more aggressive regime to general chaos and disintegration between territories all armed with nuclear weapons. More than ever, Europe must accelerate its military and energy policy transformation.
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The coup did not take place
It all starts on June 10, when the Russian Defense Ministry instructs all “volunteer detachments” to sign contracts with the Russian army by July 1. This ultimately means the end of the private Wagner militia, at least on the Ukrainian front. At the time, the “military” side appeared to have managed to persuade Putin to bring his “creature” Prigozhin back into line. But the creature rebels. On June 11, Prigojine announces that “Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu”. On June 12, Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen Republic, accepts the integration of the Akhmat military unit into the Russian army, increasing the pressure on his “ally” Yevgeny Prigoyine.
For twelve days, the tension rises inexorably. Prigojine multiplies the attacks in his videos posted on social networks. He attacked Shoigu and Guerasimov, calling them “bastards”, “cowards”, “clowns”, accusing them of incompetence, but also of withholding ammunition, air support, etc. from his troops responsible for the capture of Bachmout. On June 23, under the pretext of an attack by the Russian army on a Wagner base, which the Defense Ministry vehemently denied, he launched a new outrageous tirade, denouncing the country’s corruption, the army’s incompetence and the lies of…the Media about the reality of the war and the true numbers of Russian casualties.
With his 25,000 experienced men, Wagner quickly took control of Rostov-on-Don, then embarked on the M4, the highway connecting southern Russia with the capital, apparently traversed the country without encountering any resistance, taking control of military installations in Voronezh and crosses Livetsk, stopping 200 kilometers from Moscow before making a U-turn after negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko. Immunity will be granted to soldiers of the private militia and Prigoyine, whose exile in Belarus has been announced. The mercenaries leave their positions in Rostov and return to their barracks.
Russia has just experienced the most incredible 24 hours in its history since the failed coup attempt of August 19, 1991.
The man who wanted to be king
Everything distinguishes Prigoyine from the siloviki surrounding Putin, former KGB-Leningrad soldiers or soldiers from the best academies. Former convict sentenced to 12 years in prison in the 1980s, the St. Petersburg native became a hot dog salesman, then in the 2000s the “Chef of Putin” made a fortune founding Concord, his catering company the Internet Research Agency and then in 2014 the private Wagner militia through Dmitri Outkine.
In less than eight years, with the help of the Syrian campaign, a real testament to the capabilities of the Russian army, he changed the geopolitical map of Africa and established himself in the most corrupt countries of the continent: Central Africa, Mali, Sudan, Mozambique, Congo, etc..
After the setbacks suffered by the Russian army at the beginning of the special military operation, a new era begins for Prigozhin. Aware of the level of corruption eroding the Russian army, its shortcomings in equipment, command and training of men, in September 2022 he proposes to Putin to increase the number of his much more experienced troops by recruiting ordinary soldiers to raise criminals in Russian prisons. For Prigojine it is a return to basics, a kind of revelation. Criss-crossing Russia, penal colonies and prisons, he understands his destiny. His time in prison enabled him to speak the language of the prisoners, but also that of the soldiers, their families and the common people; No longer just a billionaire starting from scratch familiar with the most powerful man in the world, Vladimir Putin, he is the representative of the Russian people oppressed by their elites.
An oligarch himself, he will side with the little people, the conservatives, the nationalists, the victims of the incompetence and spinelessness of the oligarchs, the apparatchiks and the siloviki. He becomes the populist leader par excellence, not reminiscent of Caesar, who crossed the Rubicon at the head of his eleven legions, hardened by ten years of war, but of the head of the Praetorian Guard Sejanus or General Vitellius, who became emperor by murdering Othos. .
The balance
When Prigojine led his “March of Justice,” he took a significant risk. Did he lose his bet or did he come back to jump better? For 24 hours, the Russian army, the second largest army in the world, was unable to stop a 25,000-strong militia on a highway. For what? One can only speculate, but the inevitable conclusion is that Putin did not have enough reserves. Since the war began, Russia would have lost 4,000 tanks, 10,000 armored vehicles and more than 200,000 soldiers killed or wounded. Their warplanes, their attack helicopters are mobilized primarily to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
And the regime was probably very scared. The clues are there: Putin’s bombastic 10am speech on the 24th and his references to the Russian Revolution allegedly “stole victory” in World War I; the disappearance of Shoigu and Guerasimov since the 23rd; desertions among Russian troops on the Ukrainian front; Civilian planes flying to Yerevan in Armenia, Astana in Kazakhstan, Dubai or Turkey filled with oligarchs, officials and their families (Lukashenko’s entire family immediately fled to Turkey)…
We also know from the messages on Telegram that Wagner’s soldiers who worshiped Prigozhin are now angry and feel betrayed. And since the “deal” was announced, we still haven’t heard from the General Staff. What will happen ?
scenarios
Russia is on the brink of political collapse. Paradoxically, if they are all united in their hatred of the West, the factions almost hate each other (for those in Europe who wanted to win over Prigoyine yesterday, let’s not forget that the ex-convict is even more “right-wing” than Putin). So much. Like the sorcerer’s apprentice, Putin is now focused on survival. To achieve this, he must continue to be easy on each other while curbing their ambitions.
The most likely scenario is the following: in the coming weeks there will be changes in the military establishment (certainly an element of the agreement reached with Prigozhin); Putin will multiply the taunts against the West, using as always the nuclear threat (mentioned more than 200 times in Russian media this month alone!); he will attempt a coup in Ukraine to distract attention from his problems, such as a hybrid attack on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant; and finally he will try to redistribute the cards among his allies (e.g. by rewarding Kadyrov for his support on June 24 while keeping him at bay).
The other scenarios are more worrying: reversal of Prigoyine refusing to go to Belarus (he is still in Rostov), Wagner’s new leader disowning Prigoyine and continuing the march to Moscow, “Salon” coup and replacing Putin with an apparatchik, secession of Chechnya or other remote regions from the federation, outbreak of civil war or worse, replacing Putin with a hawk who will use a tactical nuclear bomb on Ukraine to assert his power.
Since June 24th we have entered a new phase. The special military operation meant to annex Ukraine and prepare the ground for the annexation of the former Soviet republics has evolved into a struggle to avoid chaos in Russia, a power with 6,000 nuclear warheads that now stands on the brink of political collapse.