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DAKAR, Senegal – The aborted insurgency in Russia has unnerved much of Africa, where leaders who have turned to the Wagner mercenary group to consolidate their power now face the private paramilitary organization being weakened or even destroyed Could be resolved to experts in the region as well as Western officials and analysts.
The world’s attention is largely focused on the turmoil within Russia, where President Vladimir Putin’s aura is widely seen as marred by the short-lived uprising of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. But a Kremlin move against Wagner would also have far-reaching ramifications in Africa and the Middle East, where Wagner supplied deadly firepower to despots and strongmen while advancing Moscow’s international agenda.
In the Central African Republic and Mali, where Wagner has the largest presence on the continent, residents said WhatsApp group chats and weekend talks in African countries have been dominated by speculation about the fallout in their countries.
“Everyone is scared,” said a political analyst in Bamako, the capital of Mali, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak frankly about the tense situation. “Everyone knows that what is happening in Russia will affect us.”
Officials and pundits said it was too early to know if Wagner would withdraw from Africa or if Prigozhin would be allowed to continue the organization’s sprawling operations beyond Russia. According to witnesses and media reports, the group’s mercenaries were initially visible at checkpoints and other security installations in Africa.
Serge Djorie, the Central African Republic’s communications minister, did not respond to requests for interviews but sent a statement blaming western media for causing “unnecessary friction”.
“The Central African Republic needs peace, nothing but peace, with people and countries willing to genuinely support the development of their people,” he said.
The Malian government did not respond to a request for comment.
Participation of the Prigozhin network in Africa
Previously requested or provided to the regime
Explore/
extract
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resources
Behavior
offensive
Battle
operations
Offer
personal
or regimen
Security
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Offer
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equipment
Algeria
Libya
Burkina Faso
mali
Sudan
South Sudan
Eritrea
Cameroon
Eq. Guinea
AUTOMOBILE
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Total number of current activities of the Prigozhin network
or discussed in each country
1-3 types of network activity
Graphic based on information from leaked classified material circulated in a Discord chat room
and obtained from the Washington Post
Participation of the Prigozhin network in Africa
Previously requested or provided to the regime
Behavior
offensive
Battle
operations
Offer
education or
equipment
Offer
personally or
regime
Security
Algeria
Libya
Burkina Faso
mali
Sudan
South Sudan
Eritrea
Cameroon
Eq. Guinea
AUTOMOBILE
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
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resources
Advise
Government
guide
Algeria
Libya
Burkina Faso
mali
Sudan
South Sudan
Eritrea
Cameroon
Eq. Guinea
AUTOMOBILE
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Total number of activities of the Prigozhin network
are current or being discussed in each country
Note: currently
not supportive
Graphic based on information
from leaked intelligence
this was shared in a discord
Chatroom and obtained from the Washington Post
Participation of the Prigozhin network in Africa
Previously requested or provided to the regime
Behavior
offensive
Battle
operations
Offer
Training
or
equipment
Offer
personally or
regime
Security
Algeria
Libya
Burkina Faso
mali
Sudan
South Sudan
Eritrea
Cameroon
Even. Guinea
AUTOMOBILE
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Explore/
extract
naturally
resources
Advise
Government
guide
Algeria
Libya
Burkina Faso
mali
Sudan
South Sudan
Eritrea
Cameroon
Even. Guinea
AUTOMOBILE
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Total number of activities of the Prigozhin network
are current or being discussed in each country
Note: currently
not supportive
Graphic based on
Information leaked out
classified material that was
shared in a Discord chat room
and obtained from the Washington Post
Many Western officials and regional authorities are skeptical that a clandestine truce between Prigozhin and the Kremlin could last for long and potentially jeopardize Russia’s interests in Africa and the stability of its allies.
“Wagner’s threat analysis in Africa needs to be revised,” said J. Peter Pham, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. “There could be a deterioration in the threat assessment in the long term, but the situation could get worse in the short term. But that change is coming is pretty clear.”
That the stakes are at stake was underscored this year by assessments in leaked U.S. intelligence files, which raised concerns about Wagner’s plans to set up a “confederation” of anti-Western states on the continent, where the group struck deals about providing paramilitary capabilities in exchange for has secured lucrative concessions giving him control of assets ranging from diamond mines to oil wells. Researchers and the US military estimate that there are several thousand Russian mercenaries on the continent.
Western officials and analysts said internal divisions in Russia could offer the Biden administration and other Western powers an opportunity to reclaim their influence in countries where Wagner is active and prevent the group from gaining new footholds.
In Mali — where authorities have moved further into Russia’s sphere of influence this month as they ordered the withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping force, leaving Wagner as their key international military partner — officials have not spoken publicly since Prigozhin’s uprising was announced. The leaders did not want to be perceived as voting between Putin and Wagner, the political analyst said in Bamako, as they know they need Russian support to combat rising Islamist violence.
One of the many unanswered questions surrounding the terms of the ceasefire, which includes Prigozhin’s uncertain exile in Belarus, is whether Putin allowed the Wagner leader to remain in control of his foreign operations.
“Is that the price?” asked Bob Seely, a member of the UK Parliament and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, which has been conducting an inquiry into Wagner in Africa for the past two years. “Is his continued control of them part of the price of abandoning his Wagner formations in Russia and Ukraine?”
Even if Prigozhin was promised he could run Wagner’s outpost, officials expressed skepticism that the Kremlin would ultimately stick to that arrangement, in part because of Africa’s economic and geopolitical importance to Moscow. One of Wagner’s advantages for Moscow was that it allowed Russia to operate “both officially and unofficially” in Africa, analysts said, with the group – accused of human rights abuses – often representing the interests of the Kremlin, but also on one Level acts of plausible denial.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday in an interview with RT, a Russian state media outlet, that “militaries from Russia” will continue to work with CAR and Mali, but did not mention Wagner by name, only indicating that this was the case His countries “requested a private military enterprise” when they were “abandoned by the French and other Europeans.”
The Atlantic Council’s Pham said it’s not yet clear whether Wagner will ultimately be forced to work more closely with the Russian state, or whether he could instead “break down into half a dozen mini-Wagners” that operate more autonomously. But he said it seemed obvious that Prigozhin “would not be focusing on his African ventures,” at least for the coming months.
Defiant Prigozhin says Wagner mercenaries to operate from Belarus
For Washington, which over the past year has ramped up efforts to counter Wagner in Africa, this moment could be an opportunity and lead to a reassessment of policy, current and former officials and analysts say.
The Biden administration has suspended sanctions it planned to announce in the coming days related to Wagner’s gold deal in Central African Republic, according to a current and former government official. US officials wanted to avoid any appearance of siding with Wagner or the Kremlin, they said.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined to confirm that the sanctions were delayed, but said the United States always plans its sanctions “for maximum impact or greatest possible impact” and pledged that the United States would continue to support the group would be “held accountable”.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it’s important to gain a “clearer understanding” of the future relationship between Wagner and the Kremlin to ensure Washington’s policies are aimed at Wagner — whose head is at the center Mali has already been subject to US sanctions – don’t unwittingly help Putin.
Although Hudson said there are scenarios that could have profoundly negative consequences for African countries and their relations with the West — including the withdrawal of thousands of Wagner soldiers from Ukraine to the continent — the overall situation “only reinforces the point that Washington has set out .” to African governments: “Wagner does not bring stability – it only brings chaos.”
Efforts by the Biden administration to vaccinate struggling African countries ahead of overtures by Prigozhin and his top advisers included a cross-agency trip by officials from the White House, Defense Department and State Department to Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso last fall.
The government is considering providing security aid to governments in the region to lure governments out of Wagner’s obituary or to discourage them from joining. But the endeavor is being complicated by recent coups in some Sahel countries, including Burkina Faso, to which Wagner is already providing some equipment, a senior State Department official said.
Wagner Group is growing in Africa while US influence is waning, leak shows
Authorities in Burkina Faso are seeking security assistance to repel a powerful Islamist militant insurgency. But US officials have been limited by the coup and are concerned that Burkina Faso’s authorities could turn to aid in human rights abuses.
In the Central African Republic, the US official described President Faustin-Archange Touadéra as “buyer’s remorse” over his decision to work with Wagner because the group controls the country’s resources so tightly. Talks are ongoing there about what kind of assistance the US could provide, the official said.
However, Hudson and other analysts warned that such discussions must take into account the services Wagner offers, including direct military support and protection of the incumbent regimes. In a way, the discussion was “kind of an orange discussion,” Hudson said. “Wagner ensures safety and we offer textbooks.”
In interviews in Bamako, Malians said they were concerned about the consequences. Ben Sangare, a 43-year-old adviser, put it succinctly: “It will be difficult for Russia,” he said, “to deal with its own problems and those of the Sahel at the same time.”
Mahamadou Sidibé, 45, said that while Mali was unlikely to withdraw its request for a UN withdrawal, the chaos had eroded confidence in Wagner and Russia.
“It exposed Russia’s leadership,” he said, “and it allowed me to see some of Russia’s shortcomings.”
Hudson reported from Washington and Miller from London. Mamadou Tapily in Bamako, Mali and Mary Ilyushina in Riga, Latvia contributed to this report.