Winning weeks are good. I guess.
I went 8-7-1 against the spread with my NFL picks last week and was up 9-7 right away. But considering the week really wasn’t that hard, I don’t feel good about it.
Here’s why I know this: Kudos to my colleague Dave Richard, who is part of our CBSSports.com Expert Picks, as he went 14-1-1 ATS. Just goes to show it wasn’t a tough week. Right, Dave?
Seriously, I need a week like this. I now have an ATS of 88-85-7 and a mark of 108-72 on the season.
We are approaching December. Then competitors appear. It’s also a good time for a nice week, a way above .500 both ATS and straight up.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
In terms of the playoffs, this is a huge game for these teams. The Cowboys are rolling while the Seahawks are stumbling. The Cowboys have been dominant at home and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue here. Dak Prescott continues his hot ways. Cowboys big.
Choose: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a long journey for a Chargers team that has underperformed in a big way. But the Patriots were even worse. At least the Chargers have a capable quarterback. Even the Chargers’ woeful pass defense won’t wake up the New England offense. The Chargers win.
Choose: Chargers 23, Patriots 10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Lions suffered a tough home loss to the Packers, while the Saints suffered a road loss to the Falcons. The Lions’ defense has become a major problem lately. I expect Derek Carr to play well here if the Saints win a shootout against the Lions.
Choose: Saints 32, Lions 30
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Falcons lead the NFC South after beating the Saints last week, while the Jets are on the rise. New York’s offense is terrible no matter who is playing quarterback. The defense can continue to play at a high level, which is why it will be tight. Still, look for the Falcons to win.
Choose: Falcons 19, Jets 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers seemed to find something on offense last week after the coordinator change, while the Cardinals suffered a deficit on offense against the Rams last week. The Steelers defense will once again pose a challenge for Kyler Murray and he will struggle. Kenny Pickett will be good enough to win it.
Choose: Steelers 24, Cardinals 13
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly recommend taking a look at the SportsLine Projection Model, which is in full swing this year. Check this out if you want to know which side you should bet on for each game in Week 13.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts are in the middle of the playoff race, which is a surprise to many. The Titans are 4-7 but have won all four at home. That counts. Mike Vrabel will have his team ready in a division game and Will Levis will beat Gardner Minshew. The Titans win.
Choose: Titans 23, Colts 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders have had a defensive coaching change that could help give this unit some momentum. It will be a real challenge against this Miami offense. But the Dolphins didn’t put up eye-popping numbers on the road. They won’t be here either. They’ll win it, but Sam Howell will keep it close.
Choose: Dolphins 26, Commanders 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big game in terms of playoff implications. Denver has won five straight and the defense has turned around. The Texans lost to the Jaguars in an important game last week, but they’ll bounce back here if they win a close game where CJ Stroud gets the best of Denver’s defense.
Choose: Texans 24, Broncos 22
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers fired coach Frank Reich, but he was far from the problem with this team. The roster isn’t good and Bryce Young isn’t playing well. The Bucs have had major defensive issues lately, but this team can fix them. The Panthers won’t get a coaching firing because Tampa Bay is winning.
Choose: Bucs 27, Panthers 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Browns are playing on the road for the second straight year, but have remained on the West Coast. The loss to the Broncos last week didn’t look good. The Rams won two games in a row after their bye and moved into the playoffs. I expect Matthew Stafford to outperform Dorian Thompson-Robinson when he returns to his college town. Rams take it.
Choose: Rams 21, Browns 16
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is the Game of the Week, a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game. This game was won by the Eagles when Brock Purdy was injured. He’s back and playing well. The Eagles defense is not. San Francisco’s defense appears to be back on track after a lull a few weeks ago. That is the difference. The 49ers will win a tough road game.
Choose: 49ers 27, Eagles 23
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Chiefs are playing back-to-back road games while the Packers took a break after the Thanksgiving game. That’s an advantage for the Packers. Green Bay has improved on offense with Jordan Love, which will keep them in this game. The Chiefs will find a way to win it late – but it’s close.
Choose: Chiefs 24, Packers 23
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
This game lost a lot of its luster with the loss of Joe Burrow. Jacksonville is coming off a big division win, which can sometimes lead to disappointment. But since this is Monday evening and they haven’t been to this location since 2011, there will be no disappointment. They get the best out of Jake Browning in his first road start.
Choose: Jaguars 28, Bengals 13