CNN –
Preliminary results show that a party led by a pro-Kremlin representative has claimed victory after losing in an election in Slovakia that is likely to pose a challenge to NATO-EU unity in Ukraine received more votes than expected.
According to preliminary results released by Slovakia’s statistics office at 6 a.m. local time, Robert Fico’s populist SMER party received 23.3% of the vote.
Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal and pro-Ukrainian party, won 17%.
Fico, a two-time former prime minister, now has a chance of winning back the office but must first look for coalition partners as his party was unable to secure a sufficient share of the vote for an overall victory. The moderate left-wing Hlas party, led by a former SMER member and formed as an offshoot of SMER after internal disputes, came third with 15% of the vote. And could play kingmaker.
With seven political parties meeting the 5 percent threshold required to enter parliament, coalition negotiations will almost certainly involve multiple players and could be lengthy and chaotic.
SMER’s result, while not a landslide, is better than expected – the latest opinion polls released earlier this week showed SMER and PS tied.
Fico has promised an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and pledged to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, which would upend Slovakia’s unwavering support for Ukraine.
Peter Pellegrini, Hlas leader, said his party was “very happy with the result.”
“The results so far show that Hlas will be a party without which it will be impossible to form any normal, functioning coalition government.”
“On the one hand, we are very happy with this, but on the other hand it is a big responsibility, a big task to ensure that in the event of a coalition offer we make the right decision and become part of a government that will lead Slovakia out of decline and crisis , where (the country’s previous leaders) brought us,” he added.
Hlas was vague about his position on Ukraine during the election campaign. Pellegrini had previously suggested that Slovakia had “nothing left to donate” to Kiev, but also said the country should continue to produce ammunition that is shipped to Ukraine.
Slovakia, an Eastern European country of about 5.5 million people, went to the polls to elect its fifth prime minister in four years after a series of shaky coalition governments.
A SMER-led government could have serious consequences for the region. Slovakia is a member of both NATO and the European Union, was among the few European countries to push for tough EU sanctions against Russia and has donated large amounts of military equipment to Ukraine.
But that is likely to change under Fico, who blames “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin into launching the invasion, repeating the false narrative Putin used to justify it used in his invasion.
During his time in opposition, Fico became a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, particularly when it came to criticizing the European Union. There is speculation that Fico and Orban could join forces and create obstacles for Brussels if he returns to power. If Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party manages to win a third term in Poland’s parliamentary elections next month, this bloc of EU troublemakers could become even stronger.
Meanwhile, the liberal PS party pushed for a very different future for Slovakia – including continued strong support for Kiev and a strong commitment to the West.
Fico previously served as Slovakia’s prime minister for more than a decade, first from 2006 to 2010 and then again from 2012 to 2018.
He was forced to resign in March 2018 after weeks of mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová. Kuciak reported on corruption among the country’s elite, including people directly linked to Fico and his SMER party.
The election campaign was marked by concerns about disinformation. Věra Jourová, the European Commission’s top digital official, said in advance that the vote was a “test case” for how effectively social media companies have combated Russian propaganda in Slovakia.
Polls suggest that Fico’s pro-Russian stance is shared by many Slovaks.
According to a survey by GlobSec, a Bratislava-based security think tank, only 40% of Slovaks believed Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among the eight Central and Eastern European and Baltic states GlobSec focuses on concentrated. In the Czech Republic, which once formed a country with Slovakia, 71% of people blame Russia for the war.
The same research found that 50% of Slovaks perceive the United States – the country’s long-time ally – as a security threat.