(Ottawa) Whatever the outcome, the October 3 election in Manitoba will be historic. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew has the wind at his back and could become the first Aboriginal person from a First Nation to lead a province. Progressive Conservative Party Leader Heather Stefanson would be the first woman elected to lead Manitoba in a general election, after becoming premier through a leadership race in 2021.
Published at 1:17 am. Updated at 5:00 am.
What there is to know
Manitobans will go to the polls on October 3 to elect a new government.
Outgoing Prime Minister Heather Stefanson will try to maintain her majority but remains unpopular.
New Democratic Party leader Wab Kinew could become the first Aboriginal First Nation to lead a provincial government.
“When my father was a young man, he did not have the right to vote in our country,” Mr. Kinew said in an interview with La Presse. But now I, who am his son, have the chance to present myself as a candidate for the leadership of a province. This shows me that we have made progress in Manitoba and in Canada. »
The man, in his 40s, is from the Onigaming Ojibwe First Nation in northern Ontario. His father experienced the horrors of Aboriginal boarding schools.
We have to go back to the 19th century, specifically 1878, to find an Aboriginal prime minister in Manitoba. The Métis John Norquay then held this position for 10 years. But First Nations people with “Indian status” as defined by federal law have not had the right to vote since 1876. According to the Canadian Encyclopedia, they did not gain the right to vote until 1952 in Manitoba.
PHOTO OF MANITOBA NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY PROVIDED BY Portal
Wab Kinew during a campaign rally in Winnipeg on September 4th
According to Réal Carrière, assistant professor of political science at the University of Manitoba, Wab Kinew’s candidacy signals “a change in the province’s population, which is nearly 20% Aboriginal” of 1.3 million people. In this way he could “break through the glass ceiling and become a role model” for others.
After seven years on the opposition bench, Wab Kinew is betting heavily on health to win over voters. He promises to reopen emergency rooms closed by the Progressive Conservative government and hire 300 new nurses.
“This is the most important issue for Manitobans,” says the economics bachelor in French.
The health system really needs more investment, not just for one or two years, but for seven or eight years or even longer.
Wab Kinew, leader of the Manitoba New Democratic Party
Troubled past
The Progressive Conservatives went all out with a full-page negative ad in the Winnipeg Free Press, the province’s most widely read newspaper, less than a week before the vote. “Don’t bet on the NDP. “You’ll have a bad hand,” was the headline. A series of playing cards with photos reminds, among other things, of the inglorious past of Wab Kinew and one of his candidates. The complaint accuses another defense lawyer of defending sex offenders and drug dealers and of linking the Manitoba New Democrats to the “Trudeau-NDP coalition” in Ottawa.
IMAGE FROM THE WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
The Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba took out a full-page ad in a daily newspaper to discredit the New Democrats.
An opportunity for the Progressive Conservative force to highlight the inexperience of Wab Kinew’s team in governance, which contrasts with the outgoing prime minister’s baggage. Heather Stefanson, who became an MP in 2000, held several ministerial posts – justice, family and health – before reaching the highest office.
“It changes the entire tone of the campaign a few days before the elections,” noted Raymond Hébert, professor emeritus at the University of Saint-Boniface, in an interview. We more or less expected a final blow from the conservatives, but that is really at the limit of what is acceptable. »
A few days earlier, two polls gave the New Democrats a lead. Angus Reid firm gave them 47% of voting intentions, six points ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, and Probe Research firm was at 49%. 1
This lead is even greater in the counties of Winnipeg, the capital of Manitoba. The Progressive Conservatives remain popular in rural communities. The Liberal majority appears to have collapsed and remains below 10%.
If an announcement like this causes 200 or 300 voters to change their minds, the end result could change.
Raymond Hébert, Professor Emeritus at the University of Saint-Boniface
Their negative publicity is a reminder that Wab Kinew has already been charged with domestic violence, drunk driving and hitting a taxi driver. “I had a serious problem with alcoholism and did things I’m not proud of,” the New Democrat leader admitted in a speech a few weeks before the start of the campaign. The events date back to the early 2000s, when he was in his 20s. He always denied the domestic violence charge, which was withdrawn, and obtained a suspension of his criminal record for the others.
“Our political opponents want you to believe that I am running from my past,” he explained. But in reality, my past is the reason I’m running. »
Early in the campaign he received support from Liberal heavyweight Lloyd Axworthy, the former foreign minister in Jean Chrétien’s government. The two men worked together at the University of Winnipeg when Mr. Axworthy was president and Wab Kinew was director of Indigenous inclusion. “I found him to be very committed, very effective and very imaginative,” he emphasized in an interview, not hiding his dislike of conservative tactics.
Growing economy
The New Democrats’ Achilles heel is the economy. The Progressive Conservatives are viewed by voters as the best in the field. “We are the only ones who have a plan and a vision to grow our economy and ensure that Manitoba no longer needs offsets,” Heather Stefanson said during the leaders’ debate. The Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party did not respond to our request for an interview.
PHOTO JOHN WOODS, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVE
Outgoing Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson before the leaders’ debate
Ms. Stefanson was unpopular and “more or less visible” during the campaign, notes Raymond Hébert. She promises new tax cuts, wants to tackle the federal carbon tax and take action against violent crime. Winnipeg’s murder rate is among the highest in the country.
She opposes “gender ideology” by saying she wants to strengthen parental rights and rejects the possibility that excavations will be carried out at a landfill in the capital to find the remains of two indigenous women who were killed by a murderer. The issue has been tearing the population apart for months.
It remains to be seen whether the Progressive Conservatives’ promises will be enough for voters to grant them a third term. The vote takes place three days after National Truth and Reconciliation Day.
1. The Angus Reid survey was conducted online from September 13th to 19th with a group of 990 Manitobans. A similar probability survey would have a margin of error of 3%. The margin of error is the same as Probe Research, which surveyed a sample of 1,000 Manitobans from Sept. 7 to 18.
Distribution of seats upon dissolution of the Legislative Assembly
Progressive Conservative Party: 35
New Democratic Party: 18
Liberal Party: 3
Free: 1
Total: 57