Purdue, Michigan State is clear leader in Big Ten men’s basketball media poll – The Athletic

The problem with preseason polls is that they feel especially empty when each year ends with no tangible results. Perhaps that’s why it’s especially fitting to see Purdue as the league’s all-time favorite this season.

This preseason marks the seventh year we have conducted the Official/Unofficial Big Ten Men’s Basketball Media Poll, an annual sample compiled by me and Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch. The survey surveys two writers from each of the league’s 14 schools. Sometimes it turns out to be quite accurate. Other years it is comically inaccurate.

I’m not sure why we do this. Not because preseason expectations are unfounded (metrics have some value in determining outcomes), but because the Big Ten so often feels like selling false hope. In the seven years this exercise has been organized, only two Big Ten teams have played in the Final Four – Michigan in 2018 and Michigan State in 2019. While every year we predict who the best teams and players in the league will be, the league continues to ultimately underperform. Since the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament, the conference has made 26 bids to the NCAA Tournament, going 23-26 overall in tournament games while sending only four teams to the second weekend. Meanwhile, the AAC, WCC, Conference USA and Mountain West have sent teams to the Final Four each of the past three seasons.

That’s the recent history of the Big Ten, and there’s no getting around it. I usually use this preseason column to hype that team or player. But after a while it all feels a little hollow. The conference is approaching a quarter century without a national champion. This is despite the fact that no league is on television anymore, no league receives more attention and no league consistently produces as many NCAA Tournament teams as this one. But the lack of returns, especially recently, gives the whole thing the appearance of a multi-level marketing scheme.

As expected, Purdue is the favorite this year behind near-unanimous preseason Player of the Year Zach Edey, receiving 24 of 28 first-place votes from our esteemed panel of judges. The Boilermakers won the regular season championship last season by a margin of 15-5 and the postseason conference tournament by three games.

Is it fair to use the foreword above to represent this Purdue team? On the one hand, no – these are college players, and they will make their own history. On the other hand? Yes, very much so. No program has embodied the March gentleness of this league like the Boilers. Last year’s first-round loss to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson might as well have been a postcard. Lose to the smallest of the country’s 363 Division I teams with the tallest player in America? After recent losses to North Texas and Saint Peter’s? You can’t make this up.

Despite this ending, the Boilers are the clear favorites in the league. You can’t defend yourself against Edey. You can’t prevail against the young guards and the collective talent. You can’t decide against Matt Painter. Purdue will most likely do what Purdue does – play an elite brand of basketball and put together a regular season that leads to a banner.

And then?

Does anyone really expect Purdue to make the Final Four? Does anyone really think the Boilers will give this league the boost in national relevance it desperately needs? Such belief feels a little…blind.

Behind Purdue, Michigan State ranks first on four of our preseason ballots and second on 24. The Spartans are loaded and are considered a legitimate Final Four contender. However, a team that looks very similar to this one lost 13 games last year.

Then a mashup. Maryland is voted third or fourth in 19 of 24 ballots. Illinois is picked anywhere from third to seventh, Wisconsin between third and ninth, Indiana between fourth and ninth, and Ohio State between third and ninth (with one miss for 13th).

No team handles the spectrum as well as Northwestern. A year after making only its second NCAA Tournament appearance in program history, Chris Collins’ program is picked by three third-place voters, two sixth-place voters, five seventh-place voters, seven eighth-place voters and four selected for ninth place. three on the 10th, two on the 11th, one on the 12th and one as low as the 13th.

The spread makes sense. Last year’s Big Ten standings were a wonderful mess. Northwestern won at Rutgers on the final night of the regular season to secure its 12th league win, the program’s most since 1930-31, and secure the Wildcats’ No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. If Northwestern had lost that night? The Cats would have fallen to ninth place.

Overall, 11 of the league’s 14 teams finished between 12-8 and 9-11 last season. Of those 11, nine finished between 23 and 44 on KenPom’s efficiency ratings. How much better was one really than the other? It wasn’t much. Most of the league was separated by a few possessions here and there and the vagaries of game planning – catching the right teams at the right time, avoiding double plays against the best teams in the league and protecting your home field.

This year it should look awfully similar. With Purdue and Michigan State clearly in a league of their own, the schedule is likely to be particularly difficult. It’s worth nothing:

• Illinois joins Maryland in playing Purdue and MSU twice.

• Michigan also receives Purdue and Michigan State twice, as well as Ohio State and Illinois.

• Northwestern gets the Purdue-Michigan State double along with Maryland and Illinois.

• Nebraska has singles games against Purdue and Michigan State, both at home.

• Ohio State also receives singles games from Purdue (home) and Michigan State (away).

In the end, the league is determined by the players. Edey is in a class of its own. He was incredible last season and unless he falters, he should have no problem repeating that dominance. He is the preseason player of the year and is joined on the preseason first team by fellow returning players Jahmir Young (Maryland), Terrence Shannon Jr. (Illinois), Tyson Walker (Michigan State) and Boo Buie (Northwestern).

Ace Baldwin Jr., a newcomer from Penn State, received 14 of 28 votes for our preseason Transfer of the Year. Hard to argue. The 6-foot-1 guard was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year last season before following head coach Mike Rhoades from VCU to Penn State.

Mackenzie Mgbako, a new winger/forward at Indiana, is a potential new star in the league and received 19 votes for Freshman of the Year. Considering what Indiana lost this offseason (Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Race Thompson, Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates), he will play a key role in the Hoosiers’ attempt to build momentum in year three under Mike Woodson to maintain.

This brings us to 2023-24 and the results of the latest preseason survey:

Player of the Year

Zach Edey, Purdue (27)

Also receive votes: Tyson Walker, Michigan State (1)

Freshman of the year

Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana (19)

Also receive votes: DeShawn Harris-Smith, Maryland (5); Xavier Booker, Michigan State (2); Myles Colvin, Purdue, and Scotty Middleton, Ohio State (1)

Transfer of the year

Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State (14)

Also receive votes: Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan (6); Jamison Battle, Ohio State (4); Kel’el Ware, Indiana, and AJ Storr, Wisconsin (2)

First-team All-Big Ten

Second Team All-Big Ten

* – unanimously

Also receive votes: Bruce Thornton, Ohio State 7; Julian Reese, Maryland 6; Steven Crowl, Wisconsin 5; Dawson Garcia, Minnesota 5; Braden Smith, Purdue 5; Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin 4; Xavier Johnson, Indiana 4; Zed Key, Ohio State 4; Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana 4; Payton Sandfort, Iowa 4; Jaden Akins, Michigan State 3; Connor Essegian, Wisconsin 3; Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan 3; Tony Perkins, Iowa 3; Jamison Battle, Ohio State 2; Fletcher Loyer, Purdue 2; A.J. Storr, Wisconsin 2; Tyler Wahl, Wisconsin 2; Malik Hall, Michigan State 1; Ben Krikke, Iowa 1; Donta Scott, Maryland 1; Kel’el Ware, Indiana 1

Brendan Quinn’s preseason vote

1. Purdue
2. Michigan State
3.Wisconsin
4. Maryland
5. Ohio State
6. Illinois
7.Indiana
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10.Iowa
11. Northwest
12.Michigan
13. Penn State
14. Minnesota

Player of the Year: Zach Edey

Freshman of the year: Mackenzie Mgbako

Transfer of the year: Olivier Nkamhoua

First-team All-Big Ten

Zach Edey
Tyson Walker
Keisei Tominaga
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Jahmir Young

Second Team All-Big Ten

Cliff Omoruyi
Zed key
Braden Smith
AJ Hoggard
Payton Sandfort

(Photo of Zach Edey at last season’s Big Ten Tournament: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)