Ukraine will soon face a military coup, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko flatly predicted in an angry interview with reporters on Thursday.
“It could go so far that the military comes to Kiev and twists the necks of the politicians – including Zelenskyy,” Lukashenko said, implying that he believes the Ukrainian people are fed up with the war. “The Ukrainian military will come to Kiev and put everyone in their place. Because they are in the meat grinder while the Ukrainian authorities tour Europe asking for guns, fighter jets and so on to a standing ovation.”
“Time will pass and people… will start asking him [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky]: “Do we have to suffer all our lives? For what? What’s next?’ Meanwhile, Zelenskyy will fight to the last Ukrainian and so on,” Lukashenko said, according to Belta. “What person would like that?”
A recent poll shows that about 85 percent of Ukrainians support the war until every inch of Ukraine is free, according to the Kyiv Post.
However, if the West continues to help Ukraine defend its territory — something Lukashenko mistook as helping the West attempt to take Ukrainian territory — Lukashenko warned there would be efforts to “split” Ukraine.
“I am referring to your attempts to snatch the western parts of Ukraine from the hands of Poland. Well, the fight is going to be epic. And then you will not ask me whether we will attack it from the territory of Belarus or not. They accuse Russia of wanting to tear down a piece of Ukraine. But it is you who want to dismember Ukraine at the hands of Poland,” Lukashenko said.
Lukashenko’s warnings of a possible military coup and Ukraine’s fragmentation come just a week before Russia’s war, which Belarus has helped by serving as a launching pad for attacks, hits its one-year mark. And although Lukashenko has said he wants “peace,” there are no signs that his willingness to support Putin is waning. Lukashenko said Thursday he was still prepared to allow Russia to use Belarusian territory as a base for further attacks on Ukraine.
“I am ready to provide territory again” said Lukashenkoaccording to a BBC translation.
His ominous remarks come as Russia prepares to mobilize 300,000 to 500,000 troops for the war in Ukraine in preparation for a renewed offensive, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Belarus, which forms a “union state” with Russia and is working with Moscow to link Belarusian and Russian militaries, has been conducting joint exercises with Russian troops in Belarus since October. In recent weeks, Belarus has also sent troops to the border with Ukraine and retrieved armored vehicles from storage to signal the country may be preparing for further military action.
Ukrainian authorities have warned Ukraine to prepare for possible attacks from the north.
Lukashenko said Thursday he was ready to draw Belarus more directly into the war if a soldier from Ukraine or any other nation commits “aggression” against Belarus, echoing previous predictions by Russian authorities.
“Why didn’t you give Russia a piece of paper?”
“I am ready to fight together with the Russians from Belarus only in one case: if at least one soldier enters Belarus to kill my people. If they commit aggression against Belarus, the answer will come immediately,” Lukashenko said. “The war will then take on a completely different dimension.”
Lukashenko promised to increase his 75,000-strong army to 500,000 if called upon to go to war.
The warnings come as the Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting with Lukashenko in Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow on Friday. The two will have a “substantive conversation,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
So far, Putin has not asked Lukashenko to get directly involved in the war, Lukashenko said.
“Russia never asked me to launch the operation against Ukraine together,” he said.
Lukashenko has long been on the line of supporting Russia while working to maintain some independence from Moscow, officials who have previously worked with him tell The Daily Beast. And while Lukashenko has supported Russia while it is at war in Ukraine, he has also repeatedly stated that he is not interested in getting involved in a war. Lukashenko repeatedly claimed on Thursday that Belarus wanted peace.
“War is not necessary. As long as there is no expansion of this aggression today, let’s negotiate peace,” Lukashenko said.
Lukashenko’s balancing act is in full swing this week, Kenneth Yalowitz, a former US ambassador to Belarus, told The Daily Beast.
“He’s obviously under a lot of pressure. He knows that the Russians are initiating this new offensive and they have to put all kinds of pressure on him,” Yalowitz said. “He’s doing what we’ve seen him do so many times: trying to be loyal to Putin while staying out of direct contact with this war.”
Belarusian support for a war was absent. The Belarusian opposition is planning an alliance with Zelenskyy, The Daily Beast previously reported. Some Belarusians have left Belarus to fight alongside the Ukrainians against the Russian invasion, raising the specter of widespread desertion by Belarusian forces if Belarus officially goes to war – a concern Lukashenko seems to know.
“I understand you [citizens of Belarus] and therefore I will not send people there,” said Lukashenko.
And although Lukashenko says he wants peace, he repeated accusations that the West caused the war.
“Was the war worth it or would it be better to give Russia security guarantees that it asks of you on paper?” Lukashenko said, likely referring to security guarantees that Russia required in December 2021, just before the invasion of Ukraine. “At that time, Russia and Putin demanded that you give them a written document with security guarantees that no aggression against Russia will be committed by Ukraine or Europe that is nearby… why didn’t you give Russia a piece of paper? You didn’t do it because you needed a war.”
Russia’s list included demands that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pledge not to add new members, including Ukraine, to the defense alliance designed to stem Russian aggression. Putin also demanded that NATO remove troops and weapons from its eastern flank.
By that time, Russia had already massed hundreds of thousands of soldiers near the Ukrainian border, ready to strike.