Russian leader discredited at home and losing support from allies; Experts point out that Russia will be even more isolated if nuclear weapons are used
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THE Russia On Friday 23rd, the annexation referendums of four regions of the Ukraine: Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. Authorities plan to go doortodoor to collect the votes by Tuesday 27th. Denis Pushilin, the proRussian separatist leader of the Donbass industrial region, said in a telegram message that “Donbass is Russia”. “The voice of each of you will confirm the truth,” he added. The referendums add to the suspense of a week marked by the mobilization of 300,000 reservists announced by the Russian President. Wladimir Putin, who also threatened to use the nuclear arsenal to protect his country’s territory. With this measure, Russia is trying to stem the advance of Ukraine, which has been dominating the war since the beginning of the month. Specialists also explain that Putin wants to use the annexations to reverse the conflict situation, and if Kyiv enters one of these places, he can attack and say that he is only protecting his territory. Moscow also seems that this is the most radical moment of the war.
The annexation of the territories completely violates Ukraine’s sovereignty, explains political scientist Leandro Consentino. “The invasion is already a violation, now the annexation is becoming an escalation because you despise this country and say these lands are yours.” Kyiv and its western allies have already said they will not recognize the results. “What we have is an attempt to neutralize advances to bring these areas into Russia, arguing that they are defending against attack. From the moment you annex a region, you can say you’re not attacking, you’re defending,” he adds. This is Putin’s attempt to undo the defense of sovereign rights. Doctor of international relations Igor Lucena explains that progress in eastern Ukraine and the recapture of the territory by troops from Volodymyr Zelenskyy are worried about Russia. “She is afraid that this progress will be reversed in a defeat.” Since early September, Ukrainian troops have retaken thousands of kilometers from areas that have been under Russian control since the conflict began. The fact that the referenda are invalidated by the international community could lead to Russia issuing a declaration of war after seven months of conflict, arguing that Ukraine has invaded its territory, reversing the order of events and trying to use violence Kyiv to surrender, adds Lucena. The nuclear threat being presented by Putin this week is blackmailing Ukrainians into surrendering in those areas. “It’s a third or fourth strategy for Russia to try to emerge victorious,” he concludes.
“When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our citizens. This is not a bluff,” Putin said in a televised address to the nation. However, experts, like Zelenksy and Western countries, believe that the Russian is not serious. “When you threaten nuclear weapons, you go a step further, which most countries do not condone. The allies themselves would find it difficult to defend Russia,” Consentino explains. “Nuclear Threat is the strongest card because you are putting your very existence on the line. Everyone thinks it’s a bluff,” Lucena insists, adding that if Putin uses them, “he loses support in Russia and becomes more isolated from other nations.” He sees this move as one of the Russian leader’s final moves in this “international gambit”.
Since Kherson and Donbass (consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk) are not entirely proRussian, one scenario we can expect for the next few days is an escalation of the conflict. Consentino says it will be a complicated, costly, nonpeaceful process and likely to cost lives. “Russia will stake its cards heavily on it.” Like other international analysts, he predicts a proRussian victory. Also because, if the result is different, Moscow will be destabilized in the war and the Putin era will come to an end. “He already has a weakening of support in the country. There are people who run away to avoid being called and even if Russia is not a democratic regime, Putin needs popular support. If he doesn’t succeed, he could endanger his government for so many years,” Consentino says. Moscow and St. Petersburg have already started a petition to demand the resignation of the Russian leader.. MPs from 18 municipalities signed a petition that reads: “We, local MPs of Russia, believe that President Vladimir Putin’s actions harm the future of Russia and its citizens. We demand Putin’s resignation as president,” wrote Ksenia Thorstrom, an MP from Saint Petersburg’s Semenovsky district.
A woman votes on the first day of a referendum on annexing Russiancontrolled regions of Ukraine to Russia │Portal/Alexander Ermochenko
Despite the recent moves, Lucena finds it difficult to assess whether Putin is discredited within Russia. But he says his loss of credibility is a fact. “We have no way of measuring popularity because the country is basically a dictatorship. Now when you call people to war and you have a mass exodus of the population, it shows how unwilling the Russians are to support the war.” The expert also points out that as the conflict progresses other nations begin to criticize Russia. “If Putin uses nuclear weapons, he will have an enemy in China,” he notes. In his opinion, if the Russians lose the support of Beijing, India and Turkey, the economy will collapse. “If these countries support Putin if he uses nuclear weapons, they will destroy their own domestic politics.” Lucena concludes that this move “is the supreme bluff because it [Putin] knows the consequences, and even authoritarian nations would not approve of this decision.” For him, the Putin era could be coming to an end. In addition, Putin is also endangering the political unity of the Russian Federation because no one knows what will happen if the government is overthrown. “We are talking about an autocracy. We don’t understand what is happening with Russia’s isolation and the end of the war.”