The invasion of Ukraine isolated Russia on the international stage. The repeated failures of his troops at the front and what Vladimir Putin perceives as unpredictable behavior are even troubling one of his last allies: China. Chinese leaders told the Financial Times Beijing wants to distance itself from Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine completely cut Russia off from the rest of the international community. Or almost. In fact, the Kremlin can still count on a few nations, including Iran (and its drones) or China.
At least for now, because according to confidences made by Chinese regime officials to the Financial Times, and reported notably by Sky News on Thursday, the communist government is considering changing policy and letting go of Russia.
Beyond strict geopolitical considerations, it is above all the behavior of the Russian president that feeds these doubts. “Putin is crazy!” even believes one of the executives interviewed by the British newspaper, before continuing: “The decision to invade Ukraine was taken by a very small number of people”.
take the field
In this regard, the Chinese sources consulted are formal: Beijing was not warned about the invasion of Ukraine by its neighbor. However, for more than ten months, China has faithfully played its role as Russia’s partner and refuses to support the sanctions imposed on Russia. But things seem increasingly tricky, according to a new statement by a Chinese official to the Financial Times: “China should not follow Russia” in the Ukrainian filing.
The intentions or ulterior motives of the Chinese state in this matter remain rather nebulous. But whether it’s making pledges to westerners to distance themselves from Moscow without public denial, or a complete break with Russia, the idea is to gain ground with the Kremlin and its leader not to do so be implicated in its eventual demise and the Ukrainian crisis.
The analysis has changed
This growing Chinese skepticism can be explained by the development of Beijing’s military analysis. According to elements gathered by the Anglo-Saxon press, Xi Jinping and his supporters no longer believe in the Russian army’s chances of victory and rather fear that Russia will emerge permanently weakened. The Russian alliance isn’t all that miraculous, however: the war effort is significantly transforming an already shaky Russian economy, and Russia’s diplomatic restraint is unlikely to help China trade with its other partners.
A few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin said he wanted to strengthen his ties with China to counter “provocations from the West.” It still takes two to consolidate bilateral ties.
Robin Verner Journalist BFMTV