- Kyiv sees Putin urging Lukashenko to open a new war front
- Lukashenko has ruled this out but is deeply dependent on Moscow
- Putin is assuming a more high-profile role in the faltering Ukraine war
December 19 (Portal) – Russian President Vladimir Putin, along with his defense and foreign ministers, visited Belarus on Monday, stoking fears in Kyiv that he intends to pressure his former Soviet ally to join an offensive on new ground, which would open a new front against Ukraine.
Putin, whose troops have been pushed back into northern, northeastern and southern Ukraine since February’s invasion, is taking a more public role in the war. He visited his operations headquarters on Friday to sound out military commanders.
His trip for talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was his first to Minsk since 2019 – before the COVID pandemic and a wave of pro-democracy protests in 2020, which Lukashenko crushed with strong Kremlin support.
Russian forces used Belarus as a launchpad for their failed attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in February, and Russian and Belarusian military activity there has been going on for months.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news outlets that Belarus is Russia’s “number one ally” but the suggestions that Moscow wants to pressure Minsk to join its so-called “special military operation” are “stupid and unfounded fabrications”.
Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Armed Forces Serhiy Nayev had said he believed the talks address “further aggression against Ukraine and the broader involvement of Belarusian forces in the operation against Ukraine, particularly, in our opinion, also on the ground.” would.
Ukraine’s top general Valery Saluzhniy told The Economist last week that Russia was preparing 200,000 fresh troops for a major offensive that could come as early as January, but more likely in the spring, from the east, south or even Belarus.
Moscow and Minsk have set up a joint military unit in Belarus and held numerous exercises. Last week, three Russian fighter jets and one airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft were deployed to Belarus.
But Lukashenko, a pariah in the West who relies heavily on Moscow’s support, has repeatedly said Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine. Foreign diplomats say deploying Belarusian troops would be deeply unpopular domestically.
SANCTIONS
Western sanctions have already made it difficult for Belarus to ship potash fertilizers, its main export, through Baltic ports.
[1/3] Russian President Vladimir Putin walks after disembarking from a plane upon his arrival at Minsk National Airport in Minsk, Belarus December 19, 2022. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via Portal
Western military analysts say Lukashenko’s small army lacks the strength and combat experience to make a big difference – but forcing Ukraine to send forces to its north could make it more vulnerable to Russian attacks elsewhere.
The Pentagon said on December 13 that it “does not see any kind of upcoming cross-border activity by Belarus at this time.”
Putin’s visit was announced on Friday after a surprise trip by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Belarus on December 3, where he signed an agreement with his Belarusian counterpart, details of which were not disclosed.
Adding to the ominous mood music was the sudden death last month of Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, one of the few officials in Lukashenko’s government with ties to the West. An official cause of death was not announced.
His successor, Sergei Aleinik, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday.
Lukashenko said he and Putin would discuss a longstanding effort to integrate their respective former Soviet republics into a supranational union state. The Belarusian opposition sees the talks as a vehicle for a creeping Russian annexation.
Belarus’ state-run news agency BelTA said it would answer reporters’ questions after their talks.
At a government meeting after the announcement of talks with Putin, Lukashenko unexpectedly said that any surrender of sovereignty would be a betrayal of the Belarusian people.
“Especially after these large-scale negotiations, everyone will say: ‘That’s it, there are no more authorities in Belarus, the Russians are already running around and ruling the country,'” Lukashenko said.
“I would like to emphasize this again: Nobody but us governs Belarus.”
He said he will talk to Putin about economic cooperation, energy supply, defense and security.
Russian authorities quoted Peskov as saying: “No one is pushing anyone to integrate.”
writing by Tom Balmforth and Kevin Liffey; Edited by Tomasz Janowski and Mark Heinrich
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