by Giuseppe Sarcina
The US political scientist: «Moscow could trigger a false alarm. The mood in the Kremlin is somber for Meloni’s positions.
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON – «The attacks on Italy? Another sign that Putin is becoming more and more angry and therefore more and more dangerous. Now the chances are increasing that the war could hit a NATO country ». Ian Bremmer, 52, political scientist, founder and president of the study center Eurasia Group, sees “much preparation underway for a risky winter”.
Will Putin continue to bank on European divisions?
«Russians are increasingly realizing that despite the economic difficulties, Europeans are still very compact. The EU unanimously approved eight sanctions packages against Moscow. In addition, all 27 countries have given Ukraine the opportunity to join the European Union. Gas prices are falling. It is clear that all this makes Putin nervous, angrier and angrier. And that is reflected on the diplomatic front, but I believe that we will also see the effects on the military level ».
Yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zackharova accused Italy of carrying out “a provocative attack on Russia” by excluding it from the WMD summit in Rome…
“Yes, that too is a sign of the gloomy mood in the Kremlin, including towards Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sticks to the hard line on guns and sanctions. But I expect the Russians will try to wedge themselves into possible splits in the coalition supporting the Italian government. Apparently, the Kremlin took notice of Berlusconi’s pro-Putin statements. In any case, this is only a marginal aspect of what can happen in the coming weeks.
What are you afraid of?
«May war invade some NATO countries. Many military preparations are underway. Russia could set off a false, grotesque alarm, claiming that Ukraine is about to use a “dirty bomb” (a conventional device loaded with radioactive material, ed.). Putin could then launch unilateral attacks on strategic infrastructure in Europe, such as the telecom backbones or the pipelines themselves. There could be many cyber attacks or sabotage on the ground.”
Think of attacks like the one against the Nord Stream pipeline?
“That was an important step. We still don’t know who damaged the pipes. It could have been the Ukrainians, with the support of the Europeans or the Americans. Or the responsibility could lie with the Russians. If the first hypothesis were true, Putin would feel justified in taking similar actions. If the latter were true, the Russians would still be emboldened to move forward, since the Western response was not as harsh as one might have thought. Therefore, I think that the chances that the conflict can go beyond Ukraine’s borders have increased significantly.
Will the White House continue to support Ukraine?
«I believe that the Republicans will win the House of Representatives in the midterm elections: there will be more control over the aid sent to Kyiv. But I don’t expect any line changes in the short term. If and when Trump runs will be another matter. At this point, divisions among parliamentarians will increase ».
October 27, 2022 (change October 27, 2022 | 08:11)
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