Wondering what the Ukrainians are waiting for to attack? It’s easy. They anticipate that the Russians will be so stressed that their military capabilities will be psychologically undermined.
This anticipated counteroffensive is undoubtedly the most publicized military operation in decades. That’s where all kinds of analysts, journalists and specialists go with their predictions on when the attack will begin and who will be the winner. I bet on the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainians know that their counterattack could well decide the war. They hope that this will lead to the collapse of the Russian armed forces. Which cannot be ruled out from the outset. Ukraine must make serious military advances this year to rule out the possibility that the 2024 US election will put Putin’s friend Donald Trump in power in Washington.
The Russian Depression
To achieve this, Ukraine must undermine the morale not only of combatants, but also of the Russian population and elites.
Putin must be in panic mode right now. His attempt to annex Ukraine ended in a major and humiliating fiasco. His troops are now reduced to defensive operations. He knows his days could be numbered if they fail to contain the Ukrainian offensive.
The long-awaited Kiev counter-offensive to recapture the occupied territories is being prepared by psychological warfare. Their purpose is to affect the enemy’s morale and dull their sanity. An indirect strategy aimed at “mentally shaping” the battlefield before the full-scale offensive. Deceive the Russian command and force them to disperse their forces.
This burdens not only the enemy’s army, but also its population. For the Ukrainians, the mission is already accomplished. Russian morale is not at its highest level and has never been since the start of the “special military operation”. And today, military failures are amplified by social media.
An indirect strategy
The Ukrainians are already on a psychological offensive. Yesterday morning, several drones hit by anti-aircraft missiles crashed into a wealthy Moscow suburb where Putin has a residence. No warning alarmed Muscovites. The Russian radars could not detect the drones because they flew very low. Kiev said it was not involved in the attack but predicted more attacks would follow. Two drones were shot down over the Kremlin three weeks ago.
This was preceded by a series of attacks on various infrastructures in Russia and attacks by Russian anti-Putin supporters in the Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border, forcing the Russian command to divert front-line troops to rear areas.
Ukraine successfully used a similar tactic last summer. After weeks of talk of a counter-offensive into Crimea as the Russians moved their troops south. Instead, Kiev launched a blitzkrieg in the northeast that broke through Russian lines around Kharkiv.
As a bonus, Russian forces to the south withdrew from Kherson to consolidate their defensive positions, giving the Ukrainians an unexpected victory.
