by Andrea Marinelli and Guido Olimpio
Russia is waging a war of attrition. Moscow uses a hypersonic weapon for the first time and continues the tactics observed in Grozny and Aleppo – a threatening sign. The Russians can wait longer and burden the negotiations
Putin uses the arsenal to convey political messages. He uses a hypersonic weapon for the first time and continues the – age-old – tactics of Grozny and Aleppo: indiscriminate cannon fire that makes little difference between military and civilian targets. The tsar is waging a war of attrition to wear down the enemy and the defenseless population as much as possible, striving for a position of bargaining power. The day started with a surprise: a Kinzhal would have hit an underground depot in western Ukraine, the big stern. It is a missile at ten times the speed of sound, launched by Mig 31 and Tu23, difficult to intercept, can carry a nuclear charge if necessary, it is guided by sensors that increase its accuracy.
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What matters here is its use. It is a threatening sign, proof that the Russians are ready for anything. They avoid exposing the fighters (they’ve lost many, in fact they’ve relied on cruise ships), but they strike with an “unusual” device that evokes the Kremlin’s constant references to superweapons. It is an indirect allusion to the unconventional “Spear”, well aware of the effect on public opinion in the West. HI Sutton, a naval affairs analyst, has suspected the presence of an Akula-class nuclear submarine in the eastern waters of the Mediterranean Sea, a sea area where it transits the Russian task force using the Syrian port of Tartus as shore . Another expert, Rob Lee, points out that Putin’s aviation continues to play a minor and in any case not crucial role. And this affects the opposition of opponents. A “weakness” that has already been highlighted, but which the general staff has not yet eliminated. Maybe because it’s not possible.
Along with the rocket attack, Moscow continued to pound. It covers the deployments of its troops and exhausts the enemy. The Russians have invaded Mariupol, a martyr city where the resisters are locked in some pockets: eventual capture – analysts warn – will allow them to move resources to other targets in the south, a region where Ukrainians are always insisting must be careful not to end up caught above. It is clear that Moscow is gaining ground, albeit not as quickly as expected. Long lead times can be a disadvantage – the conflict becomes a quagmire – but also an advantage given the Ukrainians’ finite resources, especially if the Russians manage to disrupt Western supplies. Kyiv mourns the deaths of over 80 soldiers at Mykolaiv barracks in the south.
In the northern sector, however, engineers began constructing underground positions using tanks and armored vehicles that were no longer aligned with the road axes, which had made them vulnerable to ambushes by light resistance units. It is still observers who are using the satellite images to provide information: some of these “holes” are not of the level that allows the car to “drive out”, fire and then re-enter the earth’s shell. Small details for specialists but noteworthy to evaluate the whole: this type of solution is temporary, but it is also an indication of a moment of waiting while the long calibers plow the neighborhoods.
The picture remains the most dramatic of the last few days. The Russians aim at inhabited areas with everything they have, making bets that meet with the usual resistance of those attacked. Cannons, guided missiles, rockets make it possible to “hit” the enemy lines with relative safety. It is the boa that suffocates, there is an intention to make life impossible for those locked in a basement, in a tunnel, in a garage. The usual logistical knots remain, the experts repeat: the tsar does not seem to have enough numbers to close his grip on Kyiv and then maintain it, although he has now deployed 90 percent of the mobilized machine, also because he has suffered heavy losses in the Elite suffered troops necessary to conquer territories and take control of the capital.
The Guardian republishes the news of the arrival of 150 Syrian mercenaries hired by Moscow to reinforce the ranks, the vanguard of a contingent that could be larger. Cannon fodder, cutthroats responsible for home murders: ideal for “cleaning up” plans. On the other hand, there are losses as signs of wear appear after weeks of operation: a consideration common to both rivals. That’s the real advantage of Putin’s army: it can stand around longer and burdens the negotiations.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s openings – most notably the renunciation of NATO and neutrality status – are not enough for Putin, who politically needs a victory and will not accept mediation: Russian optimism about the negotiations could only be an attempt to avoid new sanctions the Tsar “satisfied” with a truce that would enable him to keep the conquered territories on the ground. However, it is not clear how many are willing to sacrifice the Ukrainian president and his men in order to reach an agreement that would see the withdrawal of Russian troops and an end to the suffering: Kyiv has not yet decided, and most importantly they need to understand how to communicate it – and make it accepted by the Ukrainian people.
March 19, 2022 (change March 19, 2022 | 17:08)
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