Hoping that Putin will be removed from a coup orchestrated by a traitor from his very tight magic circle? According to American intelligence, between the tsar and some of his longestlived collaborators, the freeze has intensified after the invasion of Ukraine proved much more complicated than expected. Despite the heavy pressure of censorship, images and news of the Russian army’s withdrawal from Kyiv, leaving behind the bodies of soldiers and the blackened carcasses of hundreds of tanks, are also circulating.
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Hypothesis coup in Russia
And the ban on celebrating the burial of the fallen even in the absence of their bodies does not help. The pain of families, especially conscripts, being sent into battle is a virus that is spreading quickly, alarming the nonenklatura. Then there are the effects of sanctions and the suppression of dissent, whereby people are reported even if they demonstrate with a white sign with no writing.
For the Pentagon, the solidity of Putin’s position is becoming increasingly uncertain.
No, misinformation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov thundered: “It seems that neither the State Department nor the Pentagon know what’s really happening in Moscow, reports the Guardian they just don’t understand what’s going on. You don’t understand President Putin. You don’t understand the decisionmaking mechanism. They don’t understand our working style.
Here comes the silowiki, from “sila” or violence, the strongmen of the government, the very few who can turn to Putin to present scenarios and dossiers as long as the leader gives them the floor because the initiative is unwelcome. According to Western intelligence services, this completely plastered hierarchical mechanism makes it difficult for Putin to make appropriate decisions because no one dares to oppose him or try to convince him of what is best. Farida Rustamov, an independent journalist, says: “Few people can see it in person and have to keep their distance. And very few have access to the phone with him. But that access is only one possibility, since Putin contacts them, not the other way around.
One can imagine the mood of these “strongmen,” including interior and defense ministers and intelligence chiefs from whom Putin himself hails. We are talking about Nikolai Patrushev, a former KGB officer who has known Putin for 40 years, FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov (ibid.), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and also Sergei Naryshkin, Putin’s foreign intelligence chief. Wait a minute, Minister Shoigu? The one that disappeared after the initial setbacks of the invasion and then reappeared? Yes he. Even if disgraced, Russian analysts argue that at least for now, he would never be kicked out because for Putin it would mean admitting he backed the wrong horse.
And the oligarchs like Roman Abramovich? Not to mention that the former Chelsea manager was even poisoned after taking part in a RussiaUkrainians first leg. It’s still an unsolved mystery, but the impression is that the Russian billionaires’ ability to pressure the man to squeeze their fortunes is limited. They cannot even speak to us and will not be safely admitted to the rare video meetings between Putin and the siloviki.
So Putin is threatened with a coup? Apparently not even when we tremble around him at a situation so far removed from the hypothesis on the eve of the invasion.