A year ago, it appeared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to a fatal strategic disaster for Vladimir Putin's regime.
Although at this point the conflict was expected to last indefinitely, Kiev was in a better position in the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
Within a year, it had withstood an attack that the West believed would last just 72 hours until the fall of the capital, driving the Russians from their nerve center and retaking two key areas.
Encouraged by President Volodymyr Zelensky's triumphant rhetoric and Vladimir Putin's series of mistakes, the United States and its allies began supplying more and better weapons to the Ukrainians, overcoming fears of a nuclear escalation of the conflict.
Ukrainian arrogance then repeated that of the Russian one from the previous year, and their tanks could not change the situation on the ground. The muchvaunted counteroffensive failed despite some successes particularly against Putin's vulnerable fleet in the Black Sea.
The Russians have adapted their techniques, mobilized soldiers and are now on the offensive. They maintain their superiority in longrange attacks and advance at key points in the east and south of the country, although they also fail to conquer the entire territory.
Putin, heading toward his absurd guaranteed reelection next month, is gaining confidence. If the death of his opponent Alexei Navalni benefited him at all, it was the reminder that dissidents have no place in Russia, no matter how the activist died.
Meanwhile, the West faces a dilemma. The boredom with the war is obvious: only 10% of Europeans believe in Ukraine's triumph.
In the US, the single largest donor of the R1.35 trillion Kiev has received so far, additional aid is being blocked in Congress as it eyes the dispute between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who rejects Zelensky's support.
Europe has approved longterm aid, but Ukrainian ammunition is running out to support the economy. Fighter jets and other weapons are expected to arrive, but their impact is uncertain at best.
Cornered and unwilling to confront Russia directly, the West is wondering whether to get Kiev to accept peace negotiations that include the loss of 20% of its territory, seen as a surrender, or whether to abandon the operation against Putin should increase.
The argument that the Russian autocrat would not give up after a partial victory is valid, although attacking NATO is a suicidal tactic. Everything changes when Trump, who despises the alliance, is in the White House, making the American elections key to the war calendar.
At the moment Putin is dominating the game.