His former associate Gallyamov says: The western tanks in Kyiv “conversely distance themselves from any negotiations” because “the dynamics for Moscow are becoming increasingly negative”. While the protracted war in Ukraine creates “problems of legitimacy for the Russian president with the threat of a coup”.
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The West’s decision to supply Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces with heavy tanks “will prompt Putin to call for a second mobilization in Russia” and meanwhile “deflect the already distant possibility of a negotiation”. Because Putin “needs to negotiate urgently, but he only wants to do it from a position of strength, while the dynamics for the Kremlin are now all negative.” Abbas Gallyamov knows the Russian President well: from 2008 to 2010 he worked on his staff and wrote his speeches. If you talk to him, you can get an idea of how Putin thinks and what logic drives the Kremlin machinery. “He wanted too much and now regrets not taking what he was offered last March,” he tells Fanpage.it. “The impending arrival of the German Leopards, American Abrams and other tanks promised in Kyiv on the Ukrainian battlefields “worries not only from a military but also from a political point of view”. Gallyamov answers the phone from Tel Aviv, where he lives, after leaving Russia for security reasons.
The West has not only crossed a “red line” by deciding to send tanks to fight the Russian invaders. But Moscow’s response seemed angrier than anything else: a barrage of missiles at Ukraine. But none of the usual nuclear threats. Because?
Because in the Kremlin they exhausted their arguments in vain. They used nuclear rhetoric until a few days ago. Precisely to prevent the West from sending in tanks. It did not work. Your narrative is out of ammo.
Ukraine, dozens of attacks on the country: After the tanks, Zelenskyy now calls for fighters
What’s wrong? Haven’t you recovered yet? Are you waiting for Putin to speak? Or maybe they have decided once and for all to stop resorting to nuclear bombs, as advised by the same Chinese ally?
The nuclear dimension could soon fill the statements from Moscow again. It certainly hasn’t been put on hold permanently. Rather, Russian politics is currently in a state of shock.
They reckoned with a West afraid of nuclear threats and energy blackmail. All in vain, for now. A bad blow?
It’s a bitter defeat. It suggests that the situation for the Kremlin is developing with negative dynamics. Until a few days ago, the West seemed afraid to act. Not any longer longer. Something will be changed. The chain of events runs towards Moscow. The West no longer respects the red lines drawn by Russia. And this goes against the beliefs of the main proponents of the war. You have to see that things are not going as Putin planned. You notice that something is wrong. It is certainly a serious political blow to the Kremlin, to its narrative and to its positions.
What will Putin do now? What will be the next step?
The likelihood of a second mobilization after last September’s mobilization is increasing. Now there are more arguments to justify this. Putin is trying to weigh the new situation. And to assess the military advantages and the negative political aspects that a new mobilization would bring.
The Russian president will also have to consider that incoming tanks could speed up military operations. Until now, he has viewed time as his ally because it can increase the likelihood of splits in the Western coalition supporting Ukraine. And now?
These are purely military aspects, which I will not go into. I can only say that everything will depend on the effectiveness of these western tanks. But they haven’t arrived yet. It was only said that they will come. As I said, this points to a negative dynamic for Russia. Certainly not that Russia will be defeated. And the time factor is far from Putin’s ally.
Why not?
If the war lasts too long, it loses popularity and Russia heads for revolution. That’s why he wants to negotiate. When he says he wants to negotiate, it’s not just words.
Why, then, has there never been any serious diplomatic progress? Among other things, the West has moved step by step and left room in the gradual overcoming of the “red lines” from Moscow. As if he wanted to allow Russia to make any kind of negotiation proposal.
Putin urgently needs to negotiate because, contrary to what many people think, a long war weakens his position. But he only wants to negotiate from a dominant position. He wants to be the boss in negotiations. He only wants to start a negotiation if he wins. And if the Ukrainians lose.
Nevertheless, there were positive moments for him in which he was able to initiate a serious negotiation. For example after the first territorial conquests. Or when the West seemed more reluctant to support Kyiv. Why didn’t he take advantage of that?
Because the Russian generals and Prigozhyn (the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, editor’s note) promised Putin that within a day, or a week, or a month, the Ukrainians would be hit hard. They made Putin believe that the future situation would be better than the current one. And the President tried to create a more comfortable position to begin negotiations. The negotiation itself does not interest him. But only a negotiation capable of providing the Russian people and elites with proof of its victory. It must be understood that his only legitimacy lies in the fact that he is considered the victor, the strong man in every situation.
What happens when Putin becomes a loser in the eyes of Russians and the power elite?
He would not be able to be re-elected. Or it would only be with colossal fraud. For that he needs to achieve something in Ukraine that is at least equal to a win. And he is only willing to enter into negotiations if he is able to dictate terms.
He missed several chances.
And now, after the West’s recent decisions, his chances are dwindling. I am absolutely sure that he regrets not accepting Zelenskyy’s March proposals (the reference refers to the document presented by the Ukrainian delegation during the negotiations in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, ed . Ed.). At that time, the Ukrainian president was ready to declare Kiev’s neutrality and non-NATO status, as well as international guarantees for the occupied territories. Today Putin can dream of such results. And he could have negotiated later, too. Before the arrival of western tanks. Now the situation is even worse for him.
Therefore, with the Western decision to send tanks to Kyiv, the likelihood that Russia wants to negotiate now is even less.
It wasn’t close, that possibility. And right now she’s gone too far. Then it will depend on the progress of the war. If the tanks can deliver such a powerful blow that they lead the Russian army into a disorderly retreat, it might even force Putin’s will and bring him to his senses. But it will be difficult. Whatever happens.
You have said in the past that unless Putin decides to step down and name a successor, there could be a coup d’état or a revolution in Russia. What are the elements that make you think this way?
There would certainly not be a military coup in the foreseeable future: the armed forces are demotivated. Shocked. They thought they were the best armed forces in the world and were beaten by their neighbor. But things would change if, faced with the ongoing war and its negative trajectory, Putin decided to cancel the 2024 presidential election – fearing a bad outcome – and to declare martial law. Without his formal re-election, his legitimacy would decline. He would become a usurper. He would begin to be hated by a populace increasingly plagued by the difficulties of the economy, the lowering of social standards and living standards, the drama of the war dead. And then the armed forces could find their identity and decide to ride the discontent. And take revenge for being thrown into the Ukrainian adventure unprepared due to the miscalculations and lies of the presidential secret services. Not to mention Putin’s political blunders: few in the military condone his first attempt to take Kyiv within 24 hours, which cost the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers. There was no tactical or strategic reason. It was just a deadly political decision. The military has many reasons to be unhappy with Putin. If he is delegitimized and hated by the population, then it will be time for a coup d’etat.