In any case, Stalin’s inflammatory speech Wednesday night, in which Putin called Russians opposed to the war “traitors,” marked a change in tone and a sign that not everything is going according to plan, experts say. Perhaps more troubling, many observers saw this as a sign that the Russian head of state, faced with setbacks in Ukraine, will take a vengeful maneuver at home and crack down more harshly than ever on any manifestation of dissent.
While some Russians support the war, many others are protesting in the streets, fully aware that even the most peaceful demonstrations will be surrounded by heavily armed police. The Russian state has declared mass protests illegal, and insulting the military is now against the law. However, people appear in groups, while others show up completely alone. Even lone protesters have been detained, social media videos show.
Putin, who enjoys consistently high approval ratings in Russia, is now resorting to a strategy of intimidation to keep Russians on his side, experts say. His speech on Wednesday hinted darkly that those Russians who did not side with him were, in fact, traitors – chilling words in a country where massive political repression and the Gulag system are still vivid in memory.
“The West will try to rely on the so-called fifth column, on national traitors, on those who earn money from us and live there. their thoughts, their slavish consciousness,” Putin said. “Fifth Column” usually refers to those who sympathize with the enemy during times of war.
“The kind of people who, by their very nature, are mentally there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia,” Putin said, ridiculing them as the type who “can’t live without oysters and gender freedom.”
“But any people, and even more so the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out, like a mosquito that accidentally flew into their mouths, spit them out on the pavement,” he said. said.
For Tatyana Stanova, founder of the political and analytical firm R. Politics,” Putin’s speech was evidence that the leader’s plan had failed.
“It seems to me that everything is starting to fall apart with Putin. This speech of his is despair, strong emotions, powerlessness, ”she wrote in her official Telegram account.
Pointing to the situation in Russia, Stanovaya argues that Putin, too, is losing the battle for popularity.
“This is the beginning of the end. Yes, everyone’s elbows will be twisted, locked up, put in jail, but this is all without a future … Everything will crack and slip.”
Elizabeth Broe, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Putin’s speech reflected how isolated the Russian leader has become.
“What we saw when the war started and what we have seen since then, including yesterday’s speech, is actually the result of a man whose whole world is happening in his head,” Brau told CNN, explaining how Putin heavily isolated. during the pandemic, and now it has become more cut off as Western sanctions hit the Russian economy.
She said he was probably surprised and outraged at how far the West had gone with the sanctions and was now worried about the backlash that was likely coming from the Russians soon.
“It’s kind of a humiliation for a country that’s now closing McDonald’s with Russians flocking to IKEA to buy every last thing available before she leaves the country – it’s humiliating and certainly quite frightening when you think about the potential reaction. Russian public when these consumer goods are no longer available,” she said.
Putin’s ominous warning to the Russians sounded at the British Ministry of Defense said the invasion had “largely stalled on all fronts”.
“Russian forces have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days and continue to suffer heavy casualties,” the ministry tweeted Thursday, adding that Ukrainian resistance remains “resilient and well-coordinated.”
This is consistent with the assessment of a senior US defense official who told reporters on Monday that Russian forces in and around several key cities had made little progress over the previous weekend.
Maybe wishful thinking is so much in this pause. The Russian army is much more powerful than the Ukrainian one in all respects. Any “stall” is more tactical than a sign that Russia is retreating.
However, the Russian invasion did not bring easy prey for Putin. In 2014, Russia was able to annex Crimea in about three weeks, the same amount of time the war has raged to this day. Ukrainian resistance, backed up by weapons sent from the West, turned out to be stronger than Putin expected, experts say.
This can be seen in the way Russian forces are now indiscriminately bombing civilian targets. They also show signs that their options have been exhausted.
A public intelligence report released on Tuesday by the UK Department of Defense says Russia is calling for reinforcements from across the country. This includes the eastern part of the Russian Federation, the troops of the Pacific Fleet and Armenia, as well as fighters from “private military companies, Syrians and other mercenaries.”
Brau said the stalemate in Russian troop movements was likely the result of Russia working out the next steps.
“Russia clearly counted on a quick and decisive success, which did not happen. They are facing more united, better trained Ukrainian fighters than Russia could have imagined,” she said. “So they moved on to plan B, which was a brutal war, but Ukraine stands firm. They are reclaiming the cities, they recently freed the local mayor who was taken prisoner. So if that doesn’t work, what’s plan C?”
At the very least, Ukraine’s resistance put the country in a better position to negotiate with Putin than it would have been at the start of the war, Brau said.
What Putin does not want is to lose many more soldiers, she added.
“If Russia comes back from the Ukrainian war with a completely destroyed army, it is clearly following the wrong strategy.”