FROM OUR REPORTER
KIEV – Russia is again positioning its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, marking a turning point in its military arrangements.
Since the mid-1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Moscow government has not carried its nuclear arsenal across borders. A step strongly wanted by Vladimir Putin himself, which once again underlines the seriousness of the tensions between the Moscow government and the countries associated with NATO. Belarus borders three Allies: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Armaments experts point out that more agile and less powerful than traditional long-range weapons capable of destroying entire cities, “tactical nuclear weapons” were developed in the 1950s for potential battlefield use.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government is pleased with recent moves by Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark to create a joint air defense system in northern Europe to counter Russian expansionist ambitions. The logic is the same that has led Eastern European governments to increase military cooperation among themselves and with NATO since Putin began invading Ukraine over 13 months ago. And the consequences for Moscow can only be negative: it also wanted to expand its sphere of influence beyond the former provinces it lost to the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991, but now finds itself on the defensive in the face of the mobilization of Western countries and beyond stuck in the battles of Donbass.
The commanders of the air forces of the four Nordic countries signed a memorandum of understanding on March 16 to coordinate their military aviation. All in all, over 250 modern aircraft, which should cause some headaches for the generals of the Russian General Staff. Thus, a kind of new northern “mini-NATO” was born, parallel to the Atlantic Pact’s mother pact with the United States in the lead country role and facilitated by the recent accession process of Sweden and Finland.
It is in this context of open challenge that Putin’s move comes. The Russian President told TASS yesterday that he has reached another agreement with Aleksandr Lukashenko’s vassal state of Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, possibly by next July.
In Belarus there are already at least 10 Russian aircraft capable of carrying nuclear bombs and some Iskander missiles capable of mounting nuclear warheads.
According to Putin, “The move does not violate any international treaty against nuclear proliferation, as the United States has also deployed tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries in Eastern Europe, among other things.” In essence, the Russian army is in force in Belarus: the troops that wanted to occupy Kiev on February 24, 2022 left their bases. Since then, Lukashenko has balanced his alliance dependency with Putin with a desire to avoid direct involvement in the conflict over the border, aware that the Belarusian people may not follow him.
On the front lines of the Ukrainian war, it is worth noting the intensification of the Russian bombing raids in the Donbass and around Bakhmut. It appears to be Moscow’s muscular response after both Kiev and Anglo-American military observers had signaled a weakening of the enemy offensive in recent days. The Ukrainian Chief of General Staff himself, General Valeryi Zaluzhni, repeated yesterday that the fighting on the Bakhmut front had “stabilized”.