The war in Ukraine has shifted to Easter, with Donbass in particular being fought over, but now the north can be attacked as well.
Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor, has been in the air for some time. Recently, Russia’s military cooperation with the former Soviet republic under Alexander Lukashenko has intensified. As “Heute” reported, a two-week air force maneuver began in Belarus on Monday, in which the Russian army also takes part.
Belarus’ entry into the war could be a “game changer”. According to the US Institute of War Studies (ISW), entry could happen later this year. However, according to the experts, it seems likely that an attack from the north will not occur before the autumn. Meanwhile, Ukraine has repeatedly warned against an attack in winter or spring.
preparations are underway
According to ISW, however, Russia is probably following a different strategy: the Kremlin now wants to create the conditions for a further attack and, at the same time, give the military industry enough time to deliver the necessary materiel. Also, Russia could have more military personnel again in the fall – additional recruitment cycles and mobilizations must be completed by then.
Regarding planned tank deliveries by Ukraine’s various Western allies, Russia is calm. The numerous deliveries would not change the course of the conflict. According to a spokesman for the Office of the President in Moscow, the opposite would be achieved: more suffering and more problems would arise for the Ukrainian population. Furthermore, US-Russia relations are at a low point midway through Biden’s term.
Nav-Account ff Time 20.01.2023, 19:58 | Act: 01/20/2023, 7:58 pm