The Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov will launch a Zircon hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea in May 2022. Russian Defense Ministry press service via AP
Putin has touted Russian hypersonic weapons like the Zircon missile as unstoppable.
Zircon, in particular, is powerful, but there are limits to what it can do, says a Western expert.
As with other high-velocity weapons, the Zircon’s speed can come at the expense of its accuracy.
Russia’s Zircon hypersonic missile can do two things: fly at almost 7,000 miles per hour, making it very difficult to shoot down, or hit a moving ship. But it cannot do both.
That’s the conclusion of a British expert who says the zircon is a powerful weapon with major limitations.
“The operational use of the Zircon is an important development, but its importance should not be overstated,” said Sidharth Kaushal, naval warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank.
President Vladimir Putin has touted Russia’s hypersonic weapons as “invincible”. Russian officials claim the 3M22 Zircon can fly at Mach 9, or about 6,900 miles per hour, which may be too fast for current tactical missile defenses.
But Putin’s rhetoric cannot change the laws of physics. The problem is that objects moving at supersonic speeds – Mach 5 and above – ionize the air around them, creating a plasma sheath around the object that blocks radar signals.
But radar is exactly what many guided missiles aim at their targets. As soon as the missile arrives near a certain point, an active radar seeker in the nose turns on, scans the area and locks onto the target. Similar problems affect other high-velocity missiles, such as China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles.
President Vladimir Putin watches a missile launch from a warship during exercises in the Russian Arctic, August 2005.Portal/ITAR-TASS/PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE
“Because the missile’s plasma layer precludes the use of active radar and other onboard sensors to track a target ship in the final stages, the missile will likely need to decelerate well below hypersonic speeds to track mobile targets,” Kaushal wrote.
Against fixed targets, such as buildings on land, it is not necessary to slow down. But when chasing ships, the Zircon would likely need to decelerate to supersonic speeds to use its radar. If that’s the case, as the Zircon approaches the target, it wouldn’t move any faster than previous Russian anti-ship missiles like the P-800 Oniks, which have a speed of about Mach 2.5, or 1,900 miles per hour.
The story goes on
Supersonic missiles can be intercepted by ship defenses such as the US Navy’s SeaRAM gun/missile system.
When the Zircon is launched, a rocket accelerates it to high altitude and supersonic speed, which is necessary for the Zircon’s scramjet engine to kick in and reach hypersonic speeds. The downside is that unlike supersonic anti-ship missiles, which can skim just above water to evade radar detection, the Zircon has to stay at an altitude of about 12 miles before it gets reasonably close to the target. Flying higher for longer makes it more visible to radar.
“The missile can be either hypersonic or low observable, but not both together,” Kaushal wrote.
Zircon should not be underestimated. For example, according to Kaushal, a destroyer might not be able to spot a missile until it gets within about 15 miles of it. “From that point, the ship would have 15 seconds to respond, assuming the missile is a Zircon traveling at speeds of Mach 5 to 6.”
But Kaushal is skeptical of Russian claims that the zircon is truly operational.
The Russian frigate Admiral Groshkov will launch a Zircon hypersonic missile in the White Sea in October 2020. Russian Defense Ministry press service via AP
The weapon was developed remarkably quickly compared to previous Russian missiles. “Moreover, there appear to be no reported test failures, which is unusual for a new missile, particularly one as complex as a hypersonic cruise missile,” Kaushal noted.
The Zircon has a reported range of about 621 miles, but that depends on the missile being aimed accurately at the target zone: its onboard radar can only scan a limited range, and even an aircraft carrier is a small object to spot big ocean. Russia also has limited maritime surveillance and detection capabilities outside of its coastal waters.
“Although not much is known about the Zircon’s navigation system, the risk of a plasma blackout appears to require very precise inertial guidance,” since guidance from GPS or its Russian counterpart GLONASS “cannot be reliably assumed,” Kaushal told Insider.
Nonetheless, the Zircon could end up giving many Russian warships a hypersonic attack capability. The weapon is about 26 feet to 32 feet long, meaning it’s small enough to be mounted on smaller warships like the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates and submarines like the Yasen-class boats that worry NATO commanders to become.
“Even by cruise missile standards, it’s pretty big,” Kaushal told Insider. “Nonetheless, most of the ships in the Russian fleet will be outfitted to carry cruise missiles, so that’s definitely a design principle for even the smaller elements of the fleet.”
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy Magazine, and other publications. He has a Masters in Political Science. Keep following him Twitter and LinkedIn.
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