Vladimir Putin’s plan to seize the capital of Ukraine in the first two days of the Russian invasion was a total failure due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, poor planning and a number of serious miscalculations.
Why is it important: An isolated and furious Putin is expected to redouble his brutality as the war in Ukraine drags on for weeks, months or even years, according to senior US intelligence officials. This could be his death.
Lead news: “He has no sustainable political finale in the face of fierce resistance from Ukrainians,” CIA Director Bill Burns told a House committee on Tuesday.
- Even if Russia in the end the capture of Kyiv, the US intelligence community sees no way for a pro-Russian puppet regime to remain in power, given the categorical refusal of the Ukrainian people to capitulate.
- US estimates that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have already been killed, “far in excess” of what Putin expected or admitted, Burns said.
- Putin was ready for the sanctions, but not for the speed and unity with which the Western world brought down the hammer – especially private companies such as McDonald’s, Starbucks and Coca-Cola, which suspended sales in Russia on Tuesday.
Verification in practice: Despite setbacks, Putin is “unlikely to be kept,” said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes.
- People who will suffer most of them are Ukrainian citizens who are already beginning to see the vicious tactics that Putin used to achieve his military goals in Syria and Chechnya.
- Potential is that what Putin “might take for victory may change over time, given the significant costs he incurs,” Haynes predicted.