According to a US think tank, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s New Year’s speech shows that he is “still unwilling” to consider a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine.
Putin’s annual address made it clear that he is “unsure of his ability to shape Russia’s information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its costs to his people.” ISW) wrote in its recent report.
In a nine-minute video shown on TV as each Russian time zone region counted down the final minutes of 2022 on Saturday, Putin denounced the West for aggression and accused countries of using the conflict in Ukraine to undermine Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin poses as he delivers a New Year’s address to the nation at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don December 31, 2022. Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images
Putin said 2022 was “a year of difficult, necessary decisions, important steps towards gaining full sovereignty of Russia and powerful consolidation of our society”.
He added that Russia’s “sovereign, independent and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination”.
He also said defending the motherland is “our sacred duty to our ancestors and descendants.”
The ISW said the speech continued Putin’s “rhetorical claims that not only does Russia have historic rights over Ukraine, but that Russia’s independence and sovereignty depend on regaining control of Ukraine.”
Putin is “trying to portray victory in the war as essential to Russia’s continued existence as an independent state,” it said.
Such comments were likely intended to justify the costly war and appeal to the ultranationalist pro-war community, the ISW wrote.
But they also point out that Putin “is unwilling to consider a meaningful peaceful solution to the war he has started, except on terms he dictates to Ukraine and the West.”
The report added that the Russian leader “is unlikely to accept any lesser result: unless Ukraine, with the help of Western allies, is able to inflict further large-scale defeats on Russian forces and liberate much more of its territory.
Putin delivered the address from Southern Military District headquarters, with uniformed military personnel behind him, “as part of his ongoing effort to portray himself as an effective war leader actively controlling the war effort,” the ISW wrote.
He did not use the speech to make an announcement about how Russian forces intend to reverse backlash in Ukraine and achieve its goals, the report said.
“The banality of most of the speech is consistent with previous ISW assessments that Vladimir Putin may have postponed his annual speech to the Assembly of the Russian Federation because he was unsure about shaping the Russian information space amid mounting criticism of his warfare can,” it said.
Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and creator and co-host of the Kremlin File podcast series, told Newsweek that Putin is “preparing the Russians for a long war that was supposed to be a three-day operation. “
“This was a typical Soviet speech, full of sacrifices that Russians must make to address an ‘existential threat to the motherland,'” Lautman said.
“The problem is that there is no existential threat to Russia, Putin has no options and his rule will soon come to an end. The economy is suffering, plans for full-scale mobilization will fail and his grip on power is dwindling with the publicly displayed rifts between various authorities, regions and power-hungry actors such as the United States [Yevgeny] Prigozhin. The Russians don’t care about the atrocities committed by the military in Ukraine, but neither do they want to serve as cannon fodder on the frontlines in Ukraine.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Kremlin for comment.
Update 1/2/22, 5:44 PM ET: This article has been updated with a comment from Olga Lautman.